Malachi Corley’s NFL comparisons do not bode well for the New York Jets
One of the biggest unknowns for the New York Jets is the development of wide receiver Malachi Corley. The Jets’ brass loved him enough to try to trade up into the second round of the draft for him. They ultimately nabbed him with the first pick in the third round after trading up.
In a sense, Corley is Brock Bowers lite — a YAC machine whose route tree consisted primarily of screens and slants. Getting Olu Fashanu instead of Bowers and still drafting a reasonable facsimile on the second day was not a bad idea.
Still, Corley’s limited college route tree made Jets scouts admit that he’ll have a steep NFL learning curve. Not only did Corley play 91.6% of his college snaps in the slot, but he also barely faced targets in the intermediate and deep part of the field. That gives him a very pigeonholed role as a rookie.
If Corley wants to grow beyond a gadget player, he’ll have a steep hill to climb. Most of the players who had a similar college profile to his have not had much success at the NFL level.
Here are some of the key metrics from Corley’s college career that demonstrate what his role was. (Note: target distribution is from the player’s final college season.)
- 5’11, 215 pounds
- 6.3 average depth of target (ADOT)
- 2.22 yards per route run (YPRR)
- 8.2 YAC per reception
- 4.8% drop rate
- 26.5% contested catch (CTC) rate
- 38.4% targets behind line of scrimmage (LOS)/37.4% short/11.3% intermediate/13% deep
These players had the most similar splits in college.
| Player | Height | Weight | ADOT | YPRR | YAC/Rec | Drop% | CTC% | Behind LOS | Short | Intermediate | Deep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi Corley | 5-11 | 215 | 6.3 | 2.22 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 26.5 | 38.4 | 37.4 | 11.3 | 13 |
| Rondale Moore | 5-7 | 180 | 5.4 | 2.63 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 33.3 | 34.4 | 42.2 | 13 | 10.4 |
| Parris Campbell | 6-0 | 208 | 6.1 | 2.57 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 64.3 | 35.1 | 45.9 | 11.7 | 7.2 |
| Kadarius Toney | 6-0 | 193 | 6.6 | 2.56 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 50 | 23.8 | 39.3 | 26.2 | 10.7 |
| Amari Rodgers | 5-9 | 212 | 6.4 | 2.00 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 36.8 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 19.2 | 12.1 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 6-0 | 186 | 8.1 | 2.30 | 8.6 | 10 | 41.7 | 40 | 27.1 | 14.1 | 18.8 |
| Keke Coutee | 5-11 | 180 | 9 | 2.74 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 20 | 24 | 43.8 | 17.4 | 14.9 |
| Deebo Samuel | 6-0 | 215 | 9.1 | 2.43 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 42.3 | 28.6 | 31.6 | 24.5 | 13.3 |
While the Jets hope Corley can turn into Deebo Samuel, the other names on the list should be strong notes of caution. Kadarius Toney was a first-round pick. Rondale Moore and Parris Campbell were second-rounders. Anthony Schwartz and Amari Rodgers were third-rounders. Keke Coutee was a fourth-rounder.
Mind you, some of those receivers had better contested catch rates than Corley. That’s one of Corley’s biggest areas of struggle. It further raises questions about his ability to develop at the NFL level.
In general, the history of receivers with an ADOT under 8.5 in college is not good. Since 2014, here are the drafted receivers with an ADOT in that range (not including players who switched positions).
- Ty Montgomery
- Zay Jones
- Stefon Diggs
- Ray-Ray McCloud
- Brandon Powell
- Olamide Zaccheaus
- Parris Campbell
- Anthony Schwartz
- Rondale Moore
- Amari Rodgers
- Wan’Dale Robinson
- Kadarius Toney
Zay Jones had a nice year in 2022 but has been mediocre otherwise. Most of the other players on this list are subpar. The lone outlier is Stefon Diggs, who hit the ground running as a rookie and never looked back. In the NFL, Diggs has never had an ADOT below 8.5 in a single season.
Diggs’ college profile is also similar to Corley’s. He played 84.3% of his snaps in the slot in college, averaging 8.0 YAC per reception and 2.10 yards per route run. 29.9% of his targets came behind the line of scrimmage in his final year, 38.1% short, 19.6% intermediate, and 12.4% deep.
However, in Diggs’ rookie season, he had transitioned to an 11.7%/41.6%/28.6%/18.2% target distribution, moving more towards the intermediate area of the field. He also played in the slot just 15.4% of the time.
I don’t have all the film on Diggs in college, but he became one of the best route-runners in the NFL. That’s a very high bar for Corley to clear.
Therefore, keep expectations for Corley tempered in his first season. He could develop into a solid receiver, but it likely won’t happen immediately. Whether it happens at all may largely be up to Corley’s work ethic and coaching.
