Of all 14 teams the New York Jets face in 2024, their first matchup is undoubtedly their hardest. The San Francisco 49ers ranked second in total DVOA* in 2023, including first on offense and fourth on defense. There aren’t many obvious holes in the 49ers’ roster, which seems fully capable of making a run at the Super Bowl once more.
* DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average and measures efficiency adjusted for opponent and game context.
Still, one interesting matchup in this game could take the wind out of the 49ers’ sails.
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49ers’ cheat code
Statistically speaking, the middle of the field is where the most efficient passing production occurs. In 2023, per RBSDM, here were the NFL statistics for all three areas of the field (left, middle, right):
- Left: 7,049 pass attempts, 6.8 yards per attempt, 0.08 EPA per pass attempt, 45.9% success rate, 4.0% touchdown rate, 2.3% interception rate
- Middle: 3,568 pass attempts, 8.2 yards per attempt, 0.24 EPA per attempt, 53.5% success rate, 4.8% touchdown rate, 3.6% interception rate
- Right: 7,630 pass attempts, 6.7 yards per attempt, 0.08 EPA per attempt, 44.9% success rate, 3.9% touchdown rate, 1.9% interception rate
Although the middle of the field sees fewer than half the pass attempts of the left and right, the difference in efficiency is overwhelming. For reference, 8.2 yards per attempt would have ranked third among qualified passers in 2023, while 6.7 or 6.8 would have ranked 24th. There is a 21-spot difference in yards per attempt when throwing over the middle vs. the left or right. The EPA is three times as high, and the success rate is 8% higher.
The one drawback to throwing over the middle is its bust potential: the interception rate is almost 1.5% higher. Still, overall, that is where the best NFL passing happens.
Fred Warner, as the 49ers’ middle linebacker, covers the middle of the field — and his numbers there are lethal. Take a look at these four graphics from NFL Next Gen Stats.
Warner’s dominance has been unmatched, particularly in his middle zone of the field. Consequently, the 49ers have allowed the fewest yards per attempt in the middle third during Warner’s tenure.
Film expert Alex Rollins broke down Warner’s mastery in the middle. He explained that NFL offenses generally attempt to stress a defender in one of two ways: either high-low (putting a receiver in his zone both deeper and shallower than where he’s playing) or left-right (the receivers are on opposite sides of his zone).
Warner can cover both receivers at the same time, eliminating the supposedly easy yardage. His route recognition and understanding of offensive concepts allow him to diagnose the play and shut it down. That gives the 49ers’ pass rush time to get home because the quarterback cannot hit his first progression.
Furthermore, since 2018, Warner has covered wide receivers more frequently than any other linebacker in the league. Having a linebacker on a wide receiver is usually a mismatch, but with Warner, it isn’t. This play against CeeDee Lamb in the playoffs brought Warner’s rare capabilities to national attention.
Fred Warner is a unicorn.
Lined up in the A-gap on one hash and chases CeeDee Lamb down the seam on the opposite hash to force the incompletion. pic.twitter.com/J6wTOF1mpp
— Akash Anavarathan (@akashanav) January 23, 2023
As good as Warner is, though, the Jets may have the perfect quarterback to defeat him.
Rodgers’ preferences
When Aaron Rodgers joined the Jets, Rollins’ film breakdown highlighted Rodgers’ unusual preference to avoid the middle of the field. He cited Pro Football Focus’ breakdown from the 2022 season showcasing where on the field quarterbacks throw the most and least. Here is Rodgers’ chart.
Past the line of scrimmage, Rodgers targeted the middle of the field at a far below-average rate. This was not unique to Rodgers’ 2022 season, either; his heat maps in 2021 and 2022 looked almost identical.
Rollins explained that Rodgers does this to avoid turning the ball over. As cited above, the middle is the most boom-or-bust part of the field — it generates the highest touchdown rate but also the highest interception rate. He claimed that Rodgers’ arm strength allows him to make outside throws with the same ease as middle passes, lessening the primary concern that other quarterbacks have with throwing outside.
This risk aversion led the Packers to completely avoid high-low concepts (as described above). As Rollins concluded, “Rodgers doesn’t want to rely on the defense to determine where he’s throwing.” If Rodgers doesn’t see what he likes, he moves out of the pocket to create time and find an open receiver.”
Rollins’ breakdown came before Rodgers’ season-ending Achilles tear. It remains to be seen if Rodgers will change this tendency in deference to his injury and age.
Rodgers vs. 49ers
As good as Warner is over the middle, if Rodgers doesn’t throw there, there’s only so much Warner can do. That leads to some predictability in the offense, but the Jets have the talent to cover Rodgers’ other preferences. Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Malachi Corley, and even Xavier Gipson and Allen Lazard can beat defenses on screens, while Wilson, Mike Williams, and Lazard can win on those vertical routes.
That being said, Rodgers’ production against the 49ers with Warner on the field has been mixed. In particular, he’s struggled against them in the playoffs. In six matchups since 2018 (regular season and playoffs), Rodgers has posted a combined stat line of 144-for-211 (68.2%), 1,546 yards (7.3 yards per attempt), 11:2 TD:INT, 15 big-time throws, and a 102.9 passer rating.
Rodgers’ best games against the 49ers came when he had his usual connection with Davante Adams plus a few deep passes to other receivers. In a 33-30 win in 2018, Marquez Valdes-Scantling had three receptions for 103 yards, including a 60-yard catch. In a 34-17 victory in 2019, Valdes-Scantling had two catches for 53 yards. And in a 30-18 victory in 2021, Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard each had a 40+ yard catch.
This is not the only way for the Jets to beat the 49ers. The offenses that played the best against the 49ers in 2023, the Vikings and Bengals, spammed the middle of the field and succeeded against Warner. He gave up a combined 15 catches on 16 targets for 143 yards. San Francisco can be had in the middle of the field. Perhaps those games should be studied more closely to see how.
But Rodgers probably won’t do that. He’ll strive to avoid Warner altogether. Attacking the middle isn’t usually part of his game plan. The question then becomes whether the Jets have enough receiving power — and Rodgers still has the arm strength — to beat the rest of the team.
