While the New York Jets’ first game of 2024 did not go well, it was not because of the quarterback. Aaron Rodgers looked very solid in his return from a torn Achilles. He was not perfect, but the 2023 Jets would have made the playoffs with that performance.
Perhaps the most impressive part of Rodgers’ game was his production compared to what he was working with. His 8.0 yards per attempt tied for the ninth-most in the NFL, and his 9.5% big-time throw rate ranked fourth.
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But he did it without much help. Not from the offensive line, which did a good job keeping him clean, but from his pass-catchers.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Jets had the fourth-worst tight window target rate at 18.3%. Their 3.3 average target separation ranked 25th.
Of Rodgers’ 21 pass attempts, 15 (71.4%) went to Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. That was certainly a concerted effort on the Jets’ part, as both Rodgers and Robert Saleh indicated in their postgame press conferences. However, the concerning part was that no one else was open, except for a few nice plays to Allen Lazard (one of which was on a free play where the defense was too slow to react). Even Lazard’s best play of the night came on a contested catch that Rodgers dropped in the bucket.
As good as Wilson and Hall are, Rodgers won’t be able to get the passing game going with only two weapons, one of which is a running back. This game showcased their lack of quality receiving options beyond those two.
Of course, having Mike Williams on a pitch count did not help matters. Williams was a heavy-volume No. 2 receiver with the Chargers, which means he could add that third weapon the Jets need and make the ancillary weapons less critical. While they don’t know what they’ll get from Williams post-ACL tear, it was apparent in this game how much they need him to be his old self. In this game, Williams ran only six routes and drew no targets.
Lazard’s final stat line (6-83-2) looks impressive, but three of his six catches came in garbage time from Tyrod Taylor. His first touchdown came purely from Rodgers drawing the defense offsides. He had two nice plays and a critical drop. He is a decent fourth or fifth weapon in an offense but no one’s idea of a No. 2 receiver. His skill set is limited primarily to slants and back-shoulder vertical throws.
Where was Rodgers supposed to throw on these plays? Whether it was a three-step drop or a longer-developing concept, there weren’t great options in the main part of his progression.
To be fair, not all of it was the receivers. Nathaniel Hackett’s play designs were once again subpar. There were too many examples of pass-catchers running into the same area of the field or even running into each other. You can see some of them on the plays above.
Compare that to San Francisco’s wide-open receivers throughout the game. It was less about winning one-on-one (although that happened, too) and more about good play design and exploiting holes in the defense. Kyle Shanahan unsurprisingly outclassed Hackett in the play-calling department.
Furthermore, to an extent, this is who Rodgers is. He spams his main receiving weapons in the passing game with an occasional nod to his other options. While Wilson will not maintain a 42.9% target rate, Davante Adams had a 29.2% rate the last time he and Rodgers played together. Likewise, Hall will not garner a 28.6% target rate, but Rodgers targeted running backs on 18.5% of his attempts in 2021 (and 20.7% in 2022). The 71.4% combined target rate for Wilson and Hall is a Week 1 aberration (born partially of very few pass attempts), but close to a 50% rate should not be altogether unexpected.
Still, putting together a full complement of receiving weapons has been a tremendous issue in the Joe Douglas era. Even after drafting Wilson in the first round, the team has failed to acquire quality talent to surround him. Malachi Corley was nonexistent in this game (1 offensive snap), as pretty much expected. Xavier Gipson, for all the buzz surrounding him in OTAs, did not get open and saw zero targets. Tyler Conklin was often asked to chip but also could not win with any regularity.
At his best, Rodgers has always thrived on tight-window throws. Even in his down 2022 season, Rodgers led all quarterbacks in passer rating (87.2) and ranked third in completion percentage over expected (6.6%) and success rate (34.2%) on such passes. His pass to Lazard down the sideline was a thing of beauty.
Notice, though, that those tight-window numbers are still far below his normal passing standard. Relying on putting the ball in narrow spots is not a recipe for consistent success in the NFL. The Jets need to give him more easy plays through receiver wins and better scheming.
Right now, they do not seem to be able to do so.
