The New York Jets want to establish the run. So far, it hasn’t worked.
And if Nathaniel Hackett keeps trying it in Week 3, things could get ugly.
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Through two games, the New England Patriots have allowed 3.3 yards per carry, the third-best mark in the NFL. Their 48.6% defensive success rate against the run ranks sixth. They held Seattle’s run game (excluding quarterback sneaks and one scramble) to 14 carries for 38 yards (2.7 YPC) in Week 2.
The Jets have already struggled to run the ball through two games. Absent one 30-yard run, Breece Hall has averaged 2.97 yards per carry this season. As a team, the Jets rank dead last in expected yards per carry (3.7), worse than their mark last year (4.3). Their 3.9 yards per carry ranks 21st, and their 32.6% rush success rate ranks 28th.
In other words, this is a strength vs. weakness situation. The Jets must recognize that and reverse their tendencies.
Against Tennessee, the Jets ran the ball on 60.9% of their first-down plays. If they do that against New England, they will find themselves consistently behind the sticks.
Seattle recognized that last week and ran the ball on just 34.6% of their first down plays, the second-lowest rate in Week 2. This was a game-specific plan; in Week 1, they ran the ball on 67.9% of their first-down plays, the fifth-highest in the NFL.
Missing their starting running back, Kenneth Walker, might have been part of it, but it was also that the Seahawks saw the run wasn’t going to work and adjusted. They finished with 48 dropbacks (44 pass attempts) compared to 19 rush attempts.
A large reason for the Jets’ lack of success on the ground is their run-blocking. On virtually every play, one or two players blew their blocks, causing a failure and sometimes killing the potential for a big run. This is evident in the Jets’ average of 0.5 yards before contact per carry, the third-lowest mark in the NFL, and their 44.2% rate of being contacted behind the line of scrimmage, ranked 27th. Their 20.9% stuff rate is 25th.
The most frustrating part is that on 88.4% of the Jets’ rush attempts, they had the same or more blockers as defenders in the box — the highest rate in the NFL. This means they should have been able to block up the play, but they did not.
Still, the Patriots are not the team against which to make this right. Early in the game, the Jets’ approach should be pass-heavy, not just for the benefit of the offense.
The Patriots shocked Cincinnati in Week 1 with a 16-10 win. They pulled ahead 10-0 at halftime and 13-0 at the 11:34 mark of the third quarter. Once Cincinnati was playing from behind, the Patriots utilized their defensive prowess to hang on for the win.
New England is not built to play from behind. Even against Seattle, they did just enough to keep the game within one score. They led 7-0, 10-7, and 20-17. Even when they trailed, it was 14-10, 14-13, and 17-13. They can handle a tight game because they run the ball well and have a quarterback in Jacoby Brissett who is tied with Aaron Rodgers for the lowest interception rate in NFL history (1.4%).
But passing the ball early and often is a way to take a bigger lead. Force Brissett to throw the football. New England wants to maintain its 59.5% run rate, but trailing by two scores would force them to abandon it. And the Patriots simply do not have the pass-blocking, the manpower on the outside, or the quarterback to do that.
Brissett has been pressured on 44.3% of his dropbacks, the second-worst rate among all quarterbacks. Now, the Patriots already ruled out their starting left tackle and left guard, while their two best offensive linemen, center David Andrews and right tackle Mike Onwenu, are questionable.
The lone healthy player on the offensive line, right guard Layden Robinson, has allowed eight pressures, including three quarterback hits, on 62 pass-blocking snaps. His 12.9% pressure rate is the worst among all starting guards.
If the Jets can grab a lead quickly in this game, things can get out of hand for the Patriots. New England’s receivers have 11 combined receptions through two games. Everything else has gone to tight end Hunter Henry (10 catches), running back Rhamondre Stevenson (5), tight end Austin Hooper (3), and running back Antonio Gibson (1). New England will not be able to erase a deficit with those kinds of numbers.
Putting the Patriots into passing situations would also ease the pressure on the Jets’ run defense. Even though their numbers were better against Tennessee than San Francisco, their tackling was still poor (7 missed tackles), and there were some breakdowns early in the game. In a grinder, the Patriots can use their run game to matriculate downfield and keep the Jets’ offense on the sidelines.
How to pass
D.K. Metcalf had 10 catches for 129 yards against the Patriots, including a 56-yard touchdown on a blown coverage. He also had two drops, meaning his stat line could have been even more explosive. With Metcalf’s threat deep, Jaxon Smith-Njigba took over the underneath routes, catching 12 of 17 targets for 117 yards.
The Jets may not have quite the same skill pairing, and Garrett Wilson will face a tough matchup against Christian Gonzalez. However, most of Metcalf’s targets came in zone coverage where he ran routes away from Gonzalez. There was also one rep where Metcalf (No. 14) toasted Gonzalez (No. 0) deep (although Geno Smith had looked elsewhere and was under pressure). While Metcalf is an excellent receiver, Wilson should be able to take a page out of his book.
Furthermore, even though the Patriots have played man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (38.8%), they’ve had some trouble with typical man-beating routes or route combinations.
In particular, they’ve had some trouble against rub routes in a 3×1 trips set.
The Jets must scout these tendencies and set up their passing game accordingly. YAC-intended throws are not the ideal way to beat New England, as they have very strong tacklers. The Patriots have missed only five tackles in the passing game through two weeks, tied for the fifth-lowest mark in the NFL, despite facing the fourth-most pass attempts.
Therefore, dump-offs to Breece Hall and Braelon Allen (unless designed specifically to beat man coverage) or quick screens to Garrett Wilson fall closer to the “run” than “pass” category.
Additionally, the Patriots disguise coverages regularly. The upshot is that they rely on their disguises to catch the quarterback off guard. Aaron Rodgers’ cadence is more important than ever in diagnosing the coverage. Knowing that a defender is coming down from deep or sprinting from the box to a deep safety position can help the Jets catch them in mismatches.
Empty
After seeing the run wasn’t working, the Jets started to use an empty formation against Tennessee. Rodgers went 6-for-8 for 69 yards (8.6 yards per attempt) and a touchdown out of that formation. Geno Smith was effective out of that formation against the Patriots, going 8-for-12 for 107 yards and a touchdown.
The Jets should try running empty again. Motioning Breece Hall out of the backfield is a good way to get a man or zone tell. After Hall’s touchdown on a go route against Tennessee, it can also draw more attention his way and open space for other players.
Passing the ball often may not be what the Jets want to do. But winning in the NFL is predicated on matchups. To win, an offense must game plan for the opponent rather than try to do what they always do. Otherwise, the Jets could end up on the short side of a Patriots game yet again.
