EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ—Look, this isn’t about hopes and dreams, nor does it involve ecstatic parades and crazed locker room visions fully locked into celebratory mode.
The New York Jets fan is no longer interested in having his or her intelligence insulted. The word of the “Football Gospel of Hope” sailed away quite a while ago, right about the time Robert Saleh began feeling his seat become extra toasty.
Week 6 Matchup
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Perhaps a more unaware and/or blissfully optimistic individual would immediately jump into rah-rah mode. Hope-inspired headlines featuring reasons why the newly-led Jets will be different this time suddenly appear on your laptop or smartphone.
I simply cannot entertain that path.
To be completely blunt, I have no idea whether or not Jeff Ulbrich brings the necessary goods to the table. I feel comfortable with his strategic prowess on the defensive side of the ball, and I believe he connects with football players on a meaningful level.
By no means does that imminently translate into head-coaching qualities—particularly in today’s NFL with its modern rules.
We simply do not know, and no matter how noisy any one individual’s mouth becomes, the football world also does not know if Jeff Ulbrich can sufficiently do the job.
Correct, incorrect or apathetic, the show must go on, and the real New York Jets 2024 season unofficially begins in Week 6. The Ulbrich-led Jets begin a new chapter against Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football, which is fascinating in a number of regards.
Although my words here greatly contrast with anything resembling the end of Rudy, the variety of angles that come with a crazy week in Jets land are entirely too many to cover. Even still, there’s a lot of meat here that forces even the most pessimistic fan to raise an eyebrow just a millimeter—no matter what he or she publicly says.
The Woody Johnson angle
Each of the 32 National Football League organizations starts at the top (a more obvious statement is tough to imagine). New York Jets chairman Woody Johnson takes a heap of criticism, some of which is deserved, whereas some simply isn’t.
That’s just the way of this sports world of ours—ownership is one of the top public enemies in any city where losing becomes the norm.
This past week, Woody stood out in front during the Robert Saleh firing. He got it done on Tuesday morning, put clear-cut messages out into the football atmosphere, and even spoke with the media while fielding questions.
Kudos to Mr. Johnson for how he handled the situation.
Granted, firing a head coach just five games into a fresh season is never ideal, but this isn’t an ideal situation. Remember, it was co-chairman Christopher Johnson who, along with general manager Joe Douglas, hired Saleh in 2021, while Woody served as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Kingdom.
It’s quite possible that Woody wanted to move on from Saleh a while ago, but he stayed away from the idea of change purely due to circumstances. Although not even close to impossible, firing Saleh after Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles last year would have been a tough look. Plus, from all public indications, Rodgers wanted Saleh to remain the team’s sideline boss.
Predictably, the Jets received the “Same Old Jets” treatment all week, as buzzwords such as “chaos” and “circus” ran amok once Saleh’s firing hit the newswire. Yet, sticking with a coach who continually stunk up the joint would have absolutely taken on “Same Old Jets” more than anything else. (We just wouldn’t have realized it, as there aren’t flashy headlines that arise from status-quo.)
Moving on after five games, as opposed to sticking it out in a no-win situation, is anything but “Same Old Jets.” It’s also anything but the Woody norm.
Since buying the team near the turn of the millennium, Woody’s in-season patience has been evident. The Saleh firing marks the first time the Woody-led Jets have fired a head coach mid-season. In fact, not since Lou Holtz resigned in 1976 had a Jets head coach failed to finish the season.
So, for all of the amateur historians out there, this move is the antithesis of “Same Old Jets.”
First place in the AFC East is on the line for the New York #Jets and Buffalo Bills, as the Jeff Ulbrich era begins now … 👉https://t.co/7xJ1lp5vw0 pic.twitter.com/ANmSc95NPV
— Jets X-Factor (@jetsxfactor) October 14, 2024
The Aaron Rodgers angle
Admittedly, there isn’t a chance in the world that I think Woody Johnson made this move without (at least) first understanding how Aaron Rodgers felt about it. The same applies to Joe Douglas.
Do we honestly believe Woody, who loves star quarterbacks, would dare make this move independent of other important individuals in the building? There’s just no way. (By no means do I think Rodgers spearheaded the movement to fire Saleh, as that’s a far cry from being informed of the decision.)
Although Rodgers’s level of involvement is not meaningless, it really doesn’t matter much in the grand scheme of things.
Woody is the boss, and he has the final say. It’s his franchise, and he runs the show as he sees fit.
The “Same Old Jets” fear I can understand is the claim that Woody is meddling in the football operations. Concerns that he suddenly swooped down to make this move—independent of others—is the worry I wholly grasp.
Here’s the good news: I don’t think those fears hold sufficient merit.
Think about head coaches and general managers of yesteryear. Which of those leaders were ousted in a rapid fashion?
John Idzik lasted just two years for obvious reasons that nobody will dispute. Eric Mangini lasted just three years, which is one that still sticks in the craw of older fans (and is completely understandable), and even still, he admitted he made mistakes as a young head coach.
Everybody else, however, enjoyed longer-than-deserved tenures.
How in the world did Mike Maccagnan last as long as he did? How did Rex Ryan last six years after his leadership took the organization on a steep decline as opposed to the more encouraging upward climb? Even Todd Bowles’s stay was rather bulky, considering the overall record.
It seems to me that Woody doesn’t meddle as some may believe.
I don’t dispute the idea that Rodgers has more power than the usual NFL player, but I do disagree with those who claim he should be treated like the undrafted free agent on the practice squad. Never, ever could it work that way.
Then there’s Joe Douglas, whose standing feels much more sturdy after the smoke cleared.
Some believe Douglas is also on the hot seat, as the majority of his offseason deals were one year. The theory is simple: Woody limited his general manager to one-year deals because he planned to use the 2024 season as Douglas’s show-me year.
I’m not sure if I buy that yet, especially after Woody labeled his current roster “the most talented” one he’s had as Jets chairman. Think about the territory that covers, which includes the excellent Mike Tannenbaum-Eric Mangini roster that Rex Ryan took to back-to-back AFC championship games.
Moreover, Douglas has never been a big free-agent spender, even during the years Woody was overseas. He’s more about personnel and scouting. Plus, why not fire Douglas at the same time as Saleh? If his services are no longer wanted, it’s much easier to remove a general manager in-season as opposed to a head coach.
I believe the major principles involved—including Woody Johnson, Joe Douglas and Aaron Rodgers—saw the writing on the wall well before this summer. Ultimately, however, the contingent knew a change had to be made.
If that’s true (but even if it’s not), kudos to Woody for insulating both Rodgers and Douglas from the situation. Quite frankly, it’s the right move, no matter where the truth behind the scenes lies.
Besides, if it’s true that Rodgers and/or Douglas were involved in or even knew about the decision before it happened, could the Jets possibly win in the court of public opinion if the organization admits that reality aloud? There isn’t a chance they could get away with that, claiming everybody was involved. It would simply lead to an even messier situation.
Again, how they handled such a sticky situation is more evidence that clashes with “Same Old Jets.”
This play, the first play against the Vikings, perfectly showcases the New York #Jets' greatest problem: PREDICTABILITY, which results from the lack of opponent-specific game planning. (Sure, it's just one play, but from what we've seen in the first five weeks, there's a LOT MORE… pic.twitter.com/Ygi7yv7D9G
— Robby Sabo (@RobbySabo) October 8, 2024
The Jeff Ulbrich angle
Every sports fan understands the “what could have been” realization. A recent example in the coaching column brings us to Canada’s game.
New York Rangers fans are happy with head coach Peter Laviolette, but a nagging scratch just won’t go away. Edmonton Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch, who stunningly guided his team to the Stanley Cup Final this past spring, was entrenched in the Rangers organization just one year ago (as Hartford Wolf Pack head coach, the Rangers’ farm team).
General manager Chris Drury did not want to lose Knoblauch, but he also just hired Laviolette. What’s an executive to do?
The Jets’ decision (New York, not Winnipeg) was entirely clearer. By making the move now, they may have saved their fans from painstaking heartache in the future.
What if Jeff Ulbrich is the next great NFL head coach? What if this was the driving factor behind the move? If true, man, oh man … this move will look drastically different in a couple of years.
Besides, Robert Saleh does not have a great claim to the job. His Jets record officially ended at 20-36, which represents the third-worst winning percentage in team history (for coaches with a minimum of 40 games on the ledger).
In those 56 games, Saleh’s Jets showcased the second-worst turnover margin (-29) and worst penalty margin (-60, which means they committed 60 more penalties than their opponents).
Granted, the modern NFL doesn’t ooze as much importance for turnovers and penalties as it used to, but the problem duplicated itself in that Saleh was far too internal in his vision. He considered items such as turnovers and penalties as the creme de la creme.
In reality, items like turnover margin and penalty yards are complementary features in this whole new NFL. (Just take a look at the turnover-margin leaders from a year ago and spot the New York Giants atop the list at +0.7 per game.)
Not until the 1:22 mark of the first half did the New York #Jets attempt their first RUSH out of 11 personnel or lighter (against the Vikings). Each of the previous rush attempts came out of heavier looks (21, 12, 13 personnel), and the rush-high was 2 yards.
And what do you… pic.twitter.com/gE6CKeH7JL
— Robby Sabo (@RobbySabo) October 12, 2024
Strategy rules the modern NFL
Strategy and scheme reign supreme these days. Unfortunately, Saleh’s internal ways just didn’t jive with the opponent-specific thinking that allows coaches to place players in beneficial positions.
The hardest-to-swallow Saleh number directly involves opponent-specific game-planning: His Jets were outscored by 267 points in the first half of games.
There will always be a place for preaching vision and team identity, physicality and stubborn concepts in football. But today, with modern rules, that place is complementary.
If (and this is a major if) Jeff Ulbrich understands this to the point his game-planning vision fits today’s brand of football, this organization has an excellent future ahead.
Sure, the Nathaniel Hackett demotion, coupled with Todd Downing‘s promotion, factors into the equation as well, but the head coach is the man whose voice is heard loudest. He sets the tone, vigor and overall brainpower of that week’s mindset and game plan.
Make no mistake about it: The head coach is greatly responsible for how an offense executes. The entire feel and tempo of a game are dependent upon his general vision coupled with specific ideas of the current week, and the “race to 20” mindset is better left for 1988 (no less 2008, a year in which it is crazily still applied to an adequate degree).
We all understood that Saleh wanted his offense to deploy a strong rushing attack. When the entire league knows that, however, it becomes that much harder to execute. Plus, when you’re not willing to graciously take what the defense is giving you, not even five Hall of Fame offensive linemen and Barry Sanders can get it done on the ground.
Yes, look for the Jeff Ulbrich-led Jets to ultimately get the rushing game going, but don’t expect a stubborn attitude against the Buffalo Bills in Week 6—at least not to open the contest. If Ulbrich is the right man for the job, his attitude will be showcased in an all-out Aaron Rodgers aerial attack that forces Sean McDermott’s defense to back up a respectable degree.
Once that happens, and that mindset carries over from week to week, it’s Breece Hall and Braelon Allen’s time for the rest of the season.
With all that said, there’s nothing left to discuss; at least not right now. MetLife Stadium isn’t a mere venue hosting a regular season football game on Monday night; it’s where the real 2024 New York Jets season unofficially begins.
