The Arizona Cardinals are an offensive-minded football team. In most categories, their offense significantly outranks their defense:
- 12th in total offense, 25th in total defense
- 11th in offensive DVOA, 18th in defensive DVOA
- 11th in points per drive, 28th in points allowed per drive
Not only is Arizona more dangerous offensively than defensively, but the Cardinals’ offense matches up particularly well against the New York Jets’ defense. It could be a high-scoring day for Kyler Murray’s unit at State Farm Stadium.
This means one thing for New York: It is finally time for Aaron Rodgers and company to prove they can bail out the defense rather than vice versa.
In their three victories this season, the Jets allowed 17, 3, and 13 points. This continues a long-standing trend of the Jets only being able to win games if their defense plays phenomenally. Since 2022, the Jets are 2-17 (.105) when allowing more than 21 points, the second-worst record in the NFL (the Bears are 0-20). They are 0-5 this season.
With the talent they have offensively, the Jets should be able to win high-scoring games. Sunday could be one of those games, and if it is, Rodgers and the Jets need to tap into a level of explosiveness they have yet to achieve this year.
Luckily, the Cardinals’ defense is vulnerable in the perfect area for New York to put together its first true offensive extravaganza of the 2024 season.
How the Jets can exploit Arizona’s main defensive weakness to finally be explosive for four quarters
The Jets’ passing game has been extremely methodical this year. Aaron Rodgers is getting the ball out quickly and marching the Jets down the field at a steady pace.
According to Pro Football Focus, Rodgers is averaging 2.52 seconds from snap to throw, tying him with Kirk Cousins for the fastest among 32 qualified quarterbacks (min. 150 dropbacks). Rodgers has thrown an NFL-high 55.5% of his passes in under 2.5 seconds.
This quick-passing strategy has helped minimize hits on Rodgers behind a shaky offensive line. However, it also limits the explosiveness of the Jets’ passing game. Rodgers is producing just 6.7 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 24th out of 32 qualifiers. This is the product of Rodgers rarely holding the ball long enough to hit long-developing deep routes.
Arizona is an ideal opponent for Rodgers and the Jets to start tapping into their long-developing deep game.
The Cardinals’ pass rush is arguably the team’s main weakness. They rank 30th in Pro Football Focus’ team pass-rush grade (55.4), and according to NFL Next Gen Stats, they are 28th in pressure rate (29.5%).
Due to their lackluster pass rush, Arizona is highly susceptible to allowing long-developing completions. On dropbacks that lasted 2.5 seconds or more, the Cardinals have allowed 112 completions (5th-most), 1,430 passing yards (7th-most), and a 45.2% passing success rate (5th-highest).
Arizona has an NFL-worst pressure rate of 36.2% on dropbacks that lasted 2.5 seconds or more. That is far below the NFL average (46.7%). This means opposing play-callers can rest assured that their quarterback will have enough time to execute long-developing concepts.
On this play against the Packers, Jordan Love held the ball for 3.6 seconds until he released it, and the Cardinals came nowhere close to him with the four-man rush. Christian Watson is given enough time to separate on the deep post route, and Love hits him for the 44-yard touchdown.
Once again, the Cardinals get no pressure with the four-man rush against a deep dropback off play action. Justin Herbert holds the ball for 3.23 seconds and hits Stone Smartt for 31 yards.
Against a Cardinals team that struggles to get home even when given ample time, the Jets must trust their offensive line on Sunday. Now is the time for Todd Downing to dig deep into the Jets’ arsenal of downfield passing concepts and give Rodgers a chance to uncork some bombs.
Rodgers has only completed five passes for a gain of 30+ yards this season, tying him for 26th in the NFL despite throwing the second-most pass attempts (316). That is one 30-yard gain every 63 passing attempts. The 2024 league average is once every 32 attempts – nearly twice as frequent as Rodgers.
The Jets’ cripplingly low rate of game-breaking completions is one of the main reasons they have struggled offensively. Every once in a while, you need to have a couple of 1-to-3-play scoring drives. Relying on 8-to-12-play drives to score touchdowns is not a sustainable path to consistent success. Great offenses sprinkle in home-run plays, alleviating the pressure to chain together one masterful drive after the next.
To be clear, Rodgers has been very willing to take deep shots this year. It’s not as if his quick release time has turned him into a Checkdown Charlie. Rodgers is tied for fifth with 16 deep completions (20+ air yards) and seventh with 35 deep attempts.
However, even Rodgers’ deep attempts are usually released quickly. He averages just 2.68 seconds to throw on deep attempts, the fastest in the NFL. Rodgers is not taking deep shots like the ones we saw Love and Herbert attempt against the Cardinals.
Rodgers loves throwing up quick go/fade balls right after he takes the snap. He’s been successful on these throws, and they’re a great weapon for the Jets’ offense, but the issue is that these throws have limited explosive potential. They are usually capped at a gain of 20 to 30 yards. Since they are often caught back-shoulder or lead the receiver out of bounds, they rarely give the receiver a favorable opportunity to catch the ball in stride and take it the distance. Therefore, they do not suffice as a team’s primary source of downfield passing.
While Rodgers ranks top-five in deep completions, his ADOT (average depth of target) on deep attempts is 25.8, higher than only Kirk Cousins among qualifiers. On top of that, the Jets rank 28th in YAC per deep reception at 2.4. Essentially, his deep attempts barely surpass the qualifier of the “deep” range, and they don’t put the receivers in position to gain YAC, either.
So, yes, Rodgers does take some deep shots, but not the type of deep shots that classify as the “home run” variety – the type of plays that instantly change the complexion of a game. Those are the plays that have been missing from the offense, and they are the ones Arizona is built to allow.
In Glendale, Downing should feel the confidence to take some of Rodgers’ typical quick-release deep shots and convert them into longer-developing play-action dropbacks. Yes, the Jets’ offensive line is dealing with some injuries, but Arizona is the worst team in the NFL at generating pressure on long-developing dropbacks. If the Jets cannot protect well enough to tee up deep shots against this defense, they never will. Now is the time to test the waters and see if New York’s passing game has a new element to tap into.
