The name of the game is names.
New head coach and general manager candidates interview every day. Names come and names go. Ben Johnson isn’t interested; Aaron Glenn is. Josh McCown will take only a head coaching job, which makes Brian Flores’ candidacy less attractive; Flores and Grigson could come as a package deal or not at all.
The New York Jets may have gotten a head start on identifying candidates to interview, but they’re in the same boat as most of the other teams that fired a head coach or general manager: they still haven’t hired anyone.
Let the discussion and debate continue.
I understand the desire to look at this from every possible angle. I get the opinions and speculation. I’m a writer; it’s my job to purvey and dissect as many of those angles as possible.
However, when it comes to hiring a head coach and general manager specifically, I think the bottom line is this: we just don’t know.
Do any of us really know who will be a great head coach?
What is a great head coach, anyway?
Is it just someone whose side of the football performs well? If so, how is that any different than a glorified coordinator?
That can’t be it, because Robert Saleh’s side of the ball was excellent for two consecutive seasons. Speaking of Saleh, Jets fans were ecstatic when he was hired, and look at how that turned out.
Is it only an offensive coach whose side of the ball succeeds? Because of all this perception that only an offensive coach can truly win games?
There seems to be some merit to the offensive coach argument. After all, among the non-Tom Brady-led teams that have sustained success in recent years are the Chiefs, and 49ers, who feature two of the best offensive minds in the game. The Rams with Sean McVay have been able to recover from a post-Super Bowl cap crisis. Matt LaFleur has kept the Packers at a standard of excellence post-Aaron Rodgers.
There’s even a thought that CEO-type or defensive-minded head coaches are lost when their offensive coordinators leave, which those coordinators are wont to do when they field a successful offense. The fear is that this will happen with the Lions under Dan Campbell when Ben Johnson leaves. It happened to Dan Quinn when Kyle Shanahan left, and it could happen to him again if Kliff Kingsbury leaves.
But that begs another question. Is John Harbaugh a good head coach? He comes from a special teams background and is the definition of a CEO coach. Yet, he has a .623 career winning percentage, tied with Hall of Famer Bill Cowher. His teams have made the playoffs in 12 of his 17 seasons, and he has a Super Bowl ring.
Mike Tomlin has an even better career win percentage (.630). He’s a defensive coach but operates as a CEO. The Steelers have fallen into mediocrity in the post-Ben Roethlisberger era, but they’ve managed to avoid a single losing season.
Sean McDermott ranks 17th all-time with a career .656 win percentage. He’s a defensive coach and called defensive plays until last season. Is he a good head coach? I think some would argue that he’s the beneficiary of Josh Allen rather than a truly good coach.
On the flip side, is Mike McCarthy a good head coach? He’s an offensive play-caller and has a career .608 winning percentage in 18 seasons. The Jets have won 60% of their games only 11 times in 65 years of existence. Yet I imagine Jets fans would have been highly uninspired had they hired McCarthy.
And then there’s Brian Daboll. The man credited with Josh Allen’s turnaround. Supposedly a great hire. Won Coach of the Year in his first season for somehow squeezing wins out of Daniel Jones (aided by playing the AFC South, as most quick turnarounds tend to have). But now, he’s on a playoffs-or-bust mandate with an offense that has been in complete disarray.
Would anyone have objected if the Jets had hired Brian Daboll as their head coach? The same applies to Bobby Slowik last offseason.
Getting back to Dan Quinn. He’s in the running for Coach of the Year. But had Robert Saleh been fired last year, would any Jets fan have been happy with a Quinn hire? To take it a step further, at the same point next year, the shine could come off Quinn just as it has come off DeMeco Ryans. They even drafted a highly talented quarterback in the same spot.
Offensive innovation is critical in the NFL — although the lack of it can be covered up for by an elite quarterback. Outside of the Patrick Mahomes/Josh Allen/Joe Burrow/Lamar Jackson tier, though, teams rely heavily on their masterminds to succeed. But is that a requirement in a head coach, specifically?
Outside of the intangibles we see in a game, such as clock management, challenges, and fourth-down decision-making, the only way to really judge a head coach is by wins and losses. But as mentioned above, there are head coaches with a legacy of winning whom the typical fan would not consider “good.”
This becomes even more heightened in a general manager search. Teams often poach general managers from the organizations that win the most. Does that mean the general manager candidate was involved in the winning process?
General managers are usually judged by their draft record and free-agent signings. But take a look at this draft record from Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, the Vikings’ general manager.
Howie Roseman, widely considered the best general manager in the NFL, seems to get draft steals year in and year out and somehow widen the Eagles’ Super Bowl window while also managing the cap.
But remember, Roseman was the author of the Eagles’ “Dream Team” in 2011 that went 8-8. He hired Chip Kelly to replace Andy Reid. He gave Carson Wentz a long-term deal. He drafted Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson. Roseman is a great general manager, but if you zoom in on particular points in his career, he didn’t necessarily look like one.
Joe Douglas seemed like a slam-dunk hire when the Jets made it. Who better than the vice president of player personnel from the Eagles who was previously a scout with the Ravens? These are, perhaps, the two best organizations in the NFL.
How do you know who a good general manager will be? I think it’s safe to say that John Idzik and Mike Maccagnan were highly likely not to be good ones, but how do you identify the good ones?
This is all a long-winded way of saying that we just won’t know if the Jets made good hires until at least a year or two down the road. As with Adam Gase, there are a few head coach hires that would be instantly suspicious, such as Matt Nagy (and, I would argue, Arthur Smith).
But if the Jets hire Aaron Glenn? Hold your horses. Some see him as Saleh 2.0, which makes sense. He has a similar reputation as a high-energy defensive coordinator whom players love (and a similar lack of results without elite talent). But does that mean he will coach as Saleh 2.0? He’s a different coach.
Even if the Jets had been able to hire a successful offensive coach, such as Ben Johnson, Liam Coen, or Todd Monken, there are no guarantees it would have worked out. We don’t know if these coaches could adapt outside of the cushy confines of their offenses (specifically for Johnson and Monken). We also don’t know if they are true leaders of men.
As interested as everyone is in the Jets’ hires, it’s unwise to give them a grade one way or another. Outside of a few candidates with major red flags (who are not off the table, unfortunately), give everyone else a chance.
As poor as the Jets’ track record is, it only takes one — and it could be a completely unexpected one.
