Finding the best fits for your scheme is the crux of building an NFL roster – especially when you’re integrating a completely revamped coaching staff.
As the New York Jets reconstruct their roster under the rookie head coach-general manager pairing of Aaron Glenn and Darren Mougey, scheme fit will be paramount. That is particularly true at the quarterback position.
In the long run, the Jets’ goal is to find a quarterback who is transcendent enough to the point where New York builds the scheme around him rather than vice versa. Picture how the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills have molded their schemes around Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Every franchise dreams of getting there someday.
That is unlikely to happen in 2025, though. Barring something unforeseen, the Jets’ Week 1 starter will either be a low-end veteran stopgap or a rookie. Either way, the player won’t be good enough to dictate the scheme. Thus, to maximize their odds of success in 2025, the Jets must find someone who fits their offensive vision.
If the Jets go the “bridge” quarterback route, they must select from a bevy of options who fizzled out of the established starting quarterback tier, but are still competent enough to compete for one of the remaining starting jobs that are not allocated to either a franchise quarterback or hopeful franchise quarterback. In other words, the Jets will have to choose a player of the fringe starter/backup caliber. This would likely be labeled as an uninspiring pickup by many fans and critics.
But if the perfect marriage between scheme and player is struck, a surprising year of success can be had. These fringe-tier quarterbacks find themselves in the place they are in because they lack year-to-year consistency, but they are all capable of having one red-hot season if they land in the right situation – think 2015 Ryan Fitzpatrick or 2017 Case Keenum. That is the Jets’ goal in 2025: find the perfect stopgap who fits their scheme well enough to provide one strong season for an affordable price while bridging the Jets to their long-term answer.
We previously broke down some of the quarterback prospects who appear to be the best fits in the Jets’ offensive scheme. Using the same criteria from that article, we are going to identify some of the free agents who project as ideal fits in the scheme of new Jets offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand.
While we do not know exactly what Engstrand’s offense will look like, we can get an idea from the Detroit Lions’ tendencies over the past three years. Engstrand was the Lions’ passing game coordinator from 2022-24. Our previous two breakdowns provided some details on the specific traits we should expect Engstrand to carry over; we will touch on some of those today as we get into the quarterbacks individually, but you can learn more by diving into those articles.
Without further ado, here are some of the free agent quarterbacks who may have the best odds of a successful 2025 season in New York due to their compatibility with Tanner Engstrand’s (projected) offensive scheme.
Marcus Mariota
SNY recently reported that people around the league view Marcus Mariota as a potential target for the Jets. After digging into his statistical profile, you can understand why New York might see him as an excellent fit in Engstrand’s offense.
The trademark of Detroit’s passing game was their reliance on in-breakers over the middle. In 2024, 36.7% of the Lions’ pass attempts targeted an in-breaking route, second in the NFL, trailing only San Francisco.
Detroit didn’t like throwing deep; most of those in-breaking passes were short or intermediate (under 20 air yards). Engstrand and the Lions led the league with 180 pass attempts (10.6 per game) that targeted the middle third of the field and traveled 0-19 yards past the line of scrimmage. (For the sake of brevity, we will label these passes as “MOF” [middle of field] throughout the article.)
A quarterback’s performance on MOF passes is what the Jets should primarily focus on when evaluating the free agent class. Mariota is one of the clubhouse leaders in this department.
On MOF passes since 2022, Mariota has completed 96-of-125 attempts for 1,223 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions. That’s a 114.9 passer rating and an incredible 9.8 yards per attempt. Accounting for three drops, his adjusted completion percentage on MOF passes is 79.2%.
Despite his tremendous MOF success, Mariota has descended into backup territory due to his struggles in other facets of the game. For instance, his deep ball is very poor; since 2022, he is 15-of-56 for two touchdowns and five interceptions on deep passes (20+ yards downfield). His adjusted completion percentage on deep passes is an abysmal 28.6%.
But if Engstrand mimics the Lions’ offensive tendencies, Mariota’s weakness as a deep passer would be minimized in the Jets’ offense.
In each of the past three seasons under Engstrand, Lions quarterback Jared Goff threw less than 10% of his passes over 20 yards downfield. Only 8% of Goff’s pass attempts in 2024 were deep passes, ranking fourth-lowest (min. 300 pass attempts). In 2023, that rate was 7.6%, the lowest among qualifiers.
This is the perfect formula for finding value at the quarterback position. The Jets can emphasize the things Mariota does well and hide the things he struggles with.
Play action is another potential match between Mariota and the Jets. It projects to be a core component of the Jets’ offense, as Detroit led the NFL with a 36.8% play action rate in 2024.
When using play action since 2022, Mariota is 96-of-151 for 1,305 yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions; that’s a 104.3 passer rating and 8.6 yards per attempt. He was only sacked 11 times on 184 play action dropbacks, a low rate of 6.1%.
Mariota has struggled to make things happen without using play action to draw in the defense. On non-play action dropbacks since 2022, Mariota is 137-of-216 for 1,442 yards, nine touchdowns, and six interceptions; just an 85.1 passer rating and 6.7 yards per attempt. His sack rate is also noticeably higher at 9.1%.
Once again, the Jets’ projected tendencies are a perfect match for Mariota’s skill set. If they are just as heavy of a play action team as Detroit was, they can fully reap the benefits of his play action success. That will not completely hide his issues without play action, as even the heaviest play action teams use it less than half of the time, but it is still the best way to make the most of Mariota’s strengths.
Unless Engstrand plans to drastically depart from the Lions’ offensive tendencies, Mariota is a tailor-made fit.
Justin Fields
Like Mariota, Justin Fields’ game is porous, but he excels in the right areas to fit in the Jets’ offense.
Despite well-documented inconsistency as a passer throughout his NFL career, Fields’ MOF passing has yielded explosive results. On MOF attempts since 2022, Fields is 150-of-191 for 1,638 yards, eight touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. The ball security must be improved, of course, but his 8.6 yards per attempt and 81.7% adjusted completion percentage are stellar. Plus, Fields showed signs of improving the ball security in 2024, as he threw just one interception on 41 MOF attempts.
Fields also has a solid play-action track record. Since 2022, he is 149-of-242 for 1,874 yards, 10 touchdowns, and three interceptions when using play action, which is a 94.3 passer rating and 7.7 yards per attempt. He must improve upon his 33 sacks across 324 play action dropbacks (10.1% sack rate), but the passing production is well ahead of his efficiency in most other splits.
One of Fields’ biggest weaknesses is his accuracy and timing outside of the numbers. Since 2022, he is 41-of-78 with one drop on intermediate throws (10-19 yards downfield) outside of the middle third, which is an adjusted completion percentage of just 53.8%. Compare that to his 37-of-56 (3 drops) performance on intermediate throws to the middle third, a 71.4% adjusted completion percentage.
This makes New York an ideal landing spot for Fields, as they project to rely very little on those intermediate-outside throws that Fields struggles with. In 2024, Jared Goff threw just 48 intermediate-outside pass attempts across 17 starts. That’s only 2.8 per game, 8.9% of Goff’s total pass attempts, and 42.1% of his intermediate pass attempts. Compare that to Fields, who has been miscast in offenses that are asking him to rely much heavier on his worse area. Since 2022, 58.2% of Fields’ intermediate pass attempts went outside.
Fields still has plenty of weaknesses in his game that need fixing before he can be viewed as an average or better starter. Some of his positive metrics in 2024 were a bit misleading. He is far away from reaching the ceiling that made him the 11th overall pick. But if you lower your expectations and view him as the fringe-tier quarterback that he is, he has a reliable enough track record in the proper areas to be viewed as a relatively high-floor bridge starter for the Jets.
Tyrod Taylor
Obviously, Tyrod Taylor is already under contract with the Jets. Still, he is worth tossing into this conversation since he is the bar that New York will be comparing the free agent class against.
It is a small sample size relative to the time span, but Taylor’s MOF numbers in recent years are outstanding. On MOF attempts since 2021, Taylor is 84-of-105 for 929 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions. That’s a 117.8 passer rating, 84.8% adjusted completion percentage, and 8.8 yards per attempt.
Like Fields, Taylor’s poor outside-the-numbers accuracy is one of the primary weaknesses that buries him in the backup tier despite great MOF efficiency. Since 2021, Taylor is 12-of-29 with two drops on intermediate-outside attempts, an adjusted completion percentage of 48.3%. But in the Jets’ projected offense, this issue would be less harmful, while his MOF success would be emphasized.
While Taylor’s MOF/outside discrepancy makes him a great fit to provide value on the dollar in the Jets’ scheme, his play action reputation is slightly concerning.
On play action dropbacks since 2021, Taylor is 49-of-78 for 608 yards, three touchdowns, and five interceptions while absorbing a brutal sack rate of 13.1% (14 on 107 dropbacks). His 7.8 yards per attempt is good, but the sacks and interceptions are troublesome for a quarterback who is typically known for being a game manager.
Interestingly, Taylor’s 7.1 yards per attempt without play action is slightly below his 7.8 with it. However, he has been far less mistake-prone without play action, throwing just four interceptions on 263 pass attempts (1.5% rate compared to 6.4% with play action) and taking 19 sacks on 324 dropbacks (5.9% rate).
In terms of his preferred areas of the field to target, Taylor projects as an excellent fit for the Jets, arguably better than any free agent quarterback. However, his play action splits might be an obstacle for Engstrand to work around. The challenge for Enstrand would be to figure out how he can help Taylor maintain his increased explosiveness with play action while dialing back the turnovers and sacks.
Non-fits
Based on the two key skills we’ve focused on today (MOF passing and play action), the top three fits for the Jets are clearly Mariota, Fields, and Taylor. When combing through the rest of the options, they are generally mediocre or worse across these two areas.
Carson Wentz comes the closest to being a match. He had respectable numbers as a MOF and play action passer back in 2021-22, although not quite as impressive as the three aforementioned quarterbacks. These are his numbers in each category from 2021-24:
- MOF: 202-of-281 (23 drops), 1,950 yards, 8 TD, 5 INT (93.0 passer rating, 80.0% adjusted completion percentage, 6.9 yards per attempt)
- PA: 156-of-255 (12 drops), 2,002 yards, 17 TD, 7 INT (96.6 passer rating, 65.9% adjusted completion percentage, 7.9 yards per attempt)
Those numbers are fine, but he doesn’t quite reach the peaks of Mariota, Fields, and Taylor. His sub-7.0 yards per attempt on MOF attempts is particularly worrisome; the other three players each surpassed 8.5 in the same category. Additionally, most of this production was accumulated four years ago during his 2021 season with the Colts. Wentz took a major step back with the Commanders in 2022 (6.5 Y/A on MOF, 6.7 on PA) and has hardly played since then.
The Jets can do even worse than Wentz, though.
If he gets released by Atlanta, Kirk Cousins will likely be a popular name attached to New York. However, Cousins’ MOF passing in 2024 – his first season post-Achilles tear – was extremely erratic. Cousins went 112-of-157 (seven drops) for 1,469 yards, six touchdowns, and nine interceptions.
On one hand, you love the 9.4 yards per attempt, but that is completely erased by his unacceptable interception total. Cousins was benched due to his league-high 16 interceptions, and more than half of those came in this specific part of the field that projects to be the focal point of New York’s offense. Additionally, his 75.8% adjusted completion percentage is at least three points behind each of the other four quarterbacks we have discussed so far.
Jameis Winston might sound like more fun than anybody we’ve discussed so far, but he is a terrible fit. On MOF passes in 2024, Winston was 80-of-122 (eight drops) for 836 yards, two touchdowns, and seven interceptions. That’s a 66.8 passer rating, 72.1% adjusted completion percentage, and 6.9 yards per attempt – numbers the Jets will not sign up for with plenty of substantially better alternatives available.
If Engstrand plans to mold the Jets’ offense around Detroit’s offensive tendencies, their three best quarterback options among the fringe tier are clear: Marcus Mariota, Justin Fields, and Tyrod Taylor.
