As we attempt to project how the new-look New York Jets will build their offensive and defensive schemes in 2025, the Detroit Lions are the most accurate reference. With the Jets’ new head coach and offensive coordinator both coming over from Dan Campbell’s juggernaut, the Lions will surely have at least some degree of influence on New York’s schematic philosophies.
Looking specifically at the offensive side of the ball, the Jets are uniquely positioned to mimic one of the core elements of Detroit’s identity. This is due to factors both internal and external: the presence of two players already on the Jets’ roster, and the team’s very feasible chances of adding the remaining necessary pieces through the draft and free agency.
The Jets can replicate Detroit’s target distribution model
Jets offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand was Detroit’s passing game coordinator over the past three seasons (2022-24). He had a firsthand role in creating the target distribution model that worked wonders in Detroit.
In 2024, the Lions’ target distribution among their offensive weapons could be summarized as follows:
- 141 targets from superstar WR1 (Amon-Ra St. Brown)
- 167 targets from all other WRs on the roster combined (Only slightly more usage than the WR1 on his own)
- 101 targets from RB duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery
- 83 targets from star TE1 (Sam LaPorta)
- 30 targets from other sources
The Lions were anchored by an elite target-magnet wide receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, whose 141 targets ranked 10th in the NFL and comprised more than a quarter of the team’s targets. St. Brown alone was responsible for 45.8% of the targets accumulated by Detroit’s wide receivers.
After St. Brown, the primary components of Detroit’s offense were their high-level tight end, Sam LaPorta, and the heavily involved running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Altogether, the Lions threw 62.2% of their targets to the quartet of St. Brown, LaPorta, Gibbs, and Montgomery. Nearly 20 pass attempts per game went to one of those four players.
With a target-magnet WR1, high-end TE1, and heavily utilized RB duo, the Lions relied on their complementary wide receivers less than most NFL teams. In 2024, the Lions threw just 32% of all targets to WRs outside of their top WR in targets; the league average was 37.4%. The Lions threw only 54.2% of their WR targets to WRs outside of the top WR in targets; the league average was 62.3%.
All of this brings us back to the New York Jets, who are in an ideal position to mimic this model.
The Jets’ lack of depth at wide receiver has come under immense scrutiny in recent days following the (expected) release of Davante Adams. New York is undoubtedly one of the NFL’s thinnest teams at the position; if they played a game today and Garrett Wilson couldn’t suit up, their 12 personnel package would feature Xavier Gipson and Malachi Corley.
It’s a poor unit and the Jets need to fix it. No question.
However, if Engstrand mimics the Lions’ target distribution model, it may not be quite as big of an issue as it would be for most teams. That is because the Jets are equipped to check the boxes that allowed Detroit’s passing game to thrive despite infrequent usage from the back end of the wide receiver depth chart.
In Garrett Wilson, the Jets already have a top-tier wide receiver who is capable of filling the St. Brown role from a volume perspective. Wilson had the fourth-most targets among all players in each of the past two seasons, drawing 168 in 2023 and 154 in 2024.
The catch is that Wilson still needs to prove he can be efficient with a massive volume of targets. Compare him to St. Brown, for instance. Over the past two seasons, Wilson turned his 322 targets into 2,146 yards and 10 touchdowns (6.7 yards/target, 3.1% TD rate), while St. Brown turned his 305 targets into 2,778 yards and 22 touchdowns (9.1 yards/target, 7.2% TD rate).
Of course, St. Brown has enjoyed better quarterbacking and a far better overall environment. Wilson deserves a chance to play with more favorable circumstances before his WR1 potential can be written off. Volume-wise, he’s proven he can handle St. Brown’s workload. The Jets can rest assured knowing they have one of those rare WR1-type talents who can carry a heavy burden and take pressure off the rest of the receivers.
In Breece Hall, the Jets have an excellent receiving back who can take on the heavy responsibility that Detroit bestowed upon its backs in the passing game.
Since 2022, Hall ranks fifth among running backs in receiving touchdowns (8) and fourth in receiving yards (1,292), while his 8.5 yards per reception ranks third among running backs with 100+ receptions. Comparatively, Gibbs is averaging 8.0 yards per reception in his career. Hall has the necessary explosiveness and pass-catching skills to replicate Gibbs’ impact as a consistent source of chunk gains in the screen game and on downfield looks.
To take pressure off Hall as Montgomery did for Gibbs, the Jets have two young backs who showed promise as receivers in small samples during their rookie years. First-year men Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis combined for 223 yards, two touchdowns, and 28 receptions on just 39 targets in 2024, equaling Gibbs’ career average of 8.0 yards per reception.
So, the Jets already have a target-magnet WR1, an explosive receiving back, and pass-catching depth at running back. What they’re missing is an upper-echelon TE1 to fill LaPorta’s shoes.
Luckily, the Jets have an avenue to address that. Penn State tight end Tyler Warren has become the consensus favorite to be drafted by New York with the seventh overall pick. Warren, who caught 104 passes for 1,233 yards and eight touchdowns in 2024, is a gifted all-around weapon who could immediately be one of the NFL’s top-producing tight ends, following in the footsteps of touted prospects like Brock Bowers.
If the Jets draft Warren, they would be on the verge of a fantastic pass-catching unit. The only remaining hole for New York to replicate Detroit’s offensive model (on paper, of course) would be to solidify the back end of their WR depth chart. While Detroit relies less on those players than the average team from a volume perspective, the Lions still count on excellent efficiency from their complementary wide receivers.
Over the last two seasons, Detroit’s non-St. Brown wide receivers have combined for 223 receptions, 3,192 receiving yards, and 20 touchdowns on 337 targets. That’s 9.5 yards per target and a 5.9% touchdown rate – downright incredible numbers for a wide receiver unit when excluding its best player.
If the Jets build a trio of stars at WR1, RB1, and TE1 that demands the attention of defenses, they can position their complementary wide receivers to produce efficient numbers even if the on-paper talent isn’t overly impressive. Using this same methodology, the Lions got wide receivers like Kalif Raymond (52/66 for 704 yards and 3 TD), Josh Reynolds (40/64 for 608 yards and 5 TD), and Tim Patrick (33/44 for 394 yards and 3 TD) to produce outstanding per-target efficiency over the past two seasons. Replicating the numbers of a WR2 and/or WR3 in the aggregate can be just as effective (and more economical) as having a flashier player who produces similar numbers on his own.
Patrick is one of the players who has been rumored as a potential free agent target for New York. The 31-year-old proved in 2024 that he can thrive in a low-volume role where the Lions picked their spots for him and did not count on him too frequently.
In the report mentioning Patrick, another wide receiver linked to the Jets was Josh Palmer of the Chargers, who offers similar capabilities. Over the past two seasons, Palmer has produced 1,165 receiving yards on just 126 targets (9.2 yards per target). He is an impressive deep threat who does not need many targets to pitch in the occasional chunk gain.
Picture the nucleus of the Jets’ passing attack looking something like this:
- WR: Garrett Wilson, Josh Palmer, Tim Patrick
- TE: Tyler Warren
- RB: Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, Isaiah Davis
Some might consider this lineup underwhelming on paper due to the lack of a blockbuster one-two punch at wide receiver, which many NFL teams boast. But as the Lions proved, you can have an elite passing game with only one elite wide receiver. To pull it off, you need to be strong at tight end and running back, while the complementary wide receivers must capitalize on the chances presented to them.
Things might look bleak for the Jets’ weaponry right now, but there is a quick path to success if they play their cards right. By signing two mid-tier free agent wide receivers who can excel in their roles and drafting Tyler Warren at No. 7 (if available), the Jets will be ideally positioned to replicate the same target distribution model that worked for Engstrand’s Lions.
This is just one of many avenues the Jets could take this offseason. If they plan on building their offense to look anything like Detroit’s, it may be their most appealing path forward when being realistic about the Jets’ options.
