Everybody knew the deal heading into the 2025 NFL draft: The New York Jets desperately needed a tight end. Now that the draft is done, another deal has taken hold of the Jets faithful: Everybody feels pretty good about Mason Taylor’s potential.
The Jets’ second-round pick shot up draft boards after an impressive combine, and Aaron Glenn and Darren Mougey took serious notice.
Along with remarkable athleticism, Taylor is LSU’s leader in career receptions and receiving yards for tight ends. His reliable hands and route running made him a featured piece of their offense.
But the NFL is a different beast compared to college. As such, what can the Jets realistically expect from Taylor in his rookie year?
In our latest New York Jets analytics dive, I looked at the second-round tight ends from the last five draft classes to answer this question.
How do Day 2 tight ends perform?
Not including the 2025 draft, nine tight ends have been drafted in the second round since 2020:
- Washington Commanders’ Ben Sinnott (53rd, 2024)
- Detroit Lions’ Sam LaPorta (34th, 2023)
- Las Vegas Raiders’ Michael Mayer (35th, 2023)
- Green Bay Packers’ Luke Musgrave (42nd, 2023)
- Dallas Cowboys’ Luke Schoonmaker (58th, 2023)
- Jacksonville Jaguars’ Brenton Strange (61st, 2023)
- Arizona Cardinals’ Trey McBridge (55th, 2022)
- Pittsburgh Steelers’ Pat Freiermuth (55th, 2021)
- Chicago Bears’ Cole Kmet (43rd, 2020)
Analyzing their rookie seasons, we can get a realistic projection for Taylor. Unfortunately, the numbers aren’t particularly encouraging.
On average, second-round tight ends averaged only 26 receptions, 278 yards, and 1.73 touchdowns. Those would rank 40th, 39th, and 41st in the 2024 NFL season.
Taylor can outperform the historical precedent, but Jets fans must be patient, considering he only turned 21 yesterday. However, this analysis is skewed by five tight ends drafted in 2023 compared to only one each for the other four drafts.
The most reasonable projection for Taylor is the first tight end selected in the second round. It’s been a sweet spot with Cole Kmet (25th in receiving yards in 2024), Pat Freiermuth (12th), Trey McBride (2nd), Sam LaPorta (6th), and Ben Sinnott (93rd).
If we consider Sinnott a bust and focus on the other four tight ends, Taylor’s projections are much more encouraging:
- 50.75 Receptions (18th among 45 qualified tight ends in 2024)
- 473.5 Yards (26th)
- 5 Touchdowns (13th)
- 26.5 First Downs (16th)
- 1.28 Yards per Route Run (31st)
- 62.0% Contested Catch Rate (19th)
- 64.6 PFF Offense Grade (28th)
- 66.9 PFF Receiving Grade (28th)
- 52.6 PFF Run Blocking Grade (36th)
The Jets can hope to get less than average production from their rookie tight end. While their raw production is close to league average, their efficiency and Pro Football Focus grades hint that their output is slightly inflated compared to their quality of play.
While LaPorta is the only second-round tight end to dominate as a rookie, they all developed into good players. This brings me to my next point: One of the previous four players mentioned is a reliable comparison for Taylor and sets realistic expectations.
Cole Kmet is the template
While many want to connect Taylor to LaPorta, Cole Kmet jumped out to me as the best comparison.
The Chicago Bears selected Kmet 43rd overall in 2020, and the Jets selected Taylor 42nd in 2025.
Both came from Power 5 conferences (ACC and SEC). Both are better receivers who have the tools to improve as blockers.
Each also brings elite size and athleticism to the table, ranking in the top 150 in relative athletic score since 1987.
Ironically, both will be catching passes from quarterback Justin Fields, although that didn’t occur until Kmet’s second season.
However, the similarity that is most relevant for this comparison is age.
Kmet and Taylor will both be 21 for their rookie seasons. Before this past draft, only two tight ends taken in the first three rounds, Kmet and Kyle Pitts, were 21 as rookies.
Younger tight ends have an even more difficult transition to the NFL, evidenced by Kmet’s rookie season.
Kmet only totaled 28 receptions, 243 yards, and 2 touchdowns in his first professional season. He ranked 30th or lower in every category I listed except contested catch rate.
While the start of his career was disappointing, Kmet has impressed in the four years since. Since 2021, he has racked up 230 receptions (9th among tight ends), 2349 yards (10th), and 17 touchdowns (11th).
I think the Jets staff and fans would be happy with that result. Yet, many would be furious if Taylor’s rookie season followed Kmet’s path.
The Jets must practice patience
In the draft, Taylor was the 10th youngest player in the pool. That means he has plenty of room to grow mentally and physically, but there’s still tremendous room for growth.
While tight end is a commonly overlooked position, it’s one of the more difficult in the NFL. Only the quarterback—and potentially running back—have more of a wide-ranging set of responsibilities (receiver, run blocker, pass protector, etc.).
Taylor will gain strength and experience, but it will take time.
While the Jets may want him to be a prominent feature of their offense, it may take until 2026 before he can genuinely be a key cog. Even Trey McBride, the second-best tight end in 2024, ranked out of the top 32 in almost every category.
Finding their own Sam LaPorta would be nice, but it’s still a win if Mason Taylor follows the slower development of Trey McBride or even Cole Kmet.
