Embracing a retooling stage in the first year of a new regime, the New York Jets have a bevy of roster holes entering the 2025 season. But there is one facet of the team where very few concerns exist: the run game.

The Jets’ rushing attack is overflowing with talent. They have everything they need to be not just successful in that phase of the game, but dominant.

Jets’ fantastic outlook in the run game

At quarterback, the Jets have the man who ranks second all-time in rushing yards per game among quarterbacks (50.2). On top of the individual rushing production that Justin Fields will rack up, it cannot be understated how much his presence will help open up other aspects of the run game.

The Jets’ offensive line is loaded with quality starters from end to end. It already fielded Pro Football Focus’ eighth-best run-blocking grade in 2024, and with further development from multiple young starters, along with the addition of top-10 pick Armand Membou, their ceiling is limitless.

In the backfield, the Jets are deep and well-rounded.

Breece Hall is coming off a down year, but he is talented enough to the point where he garnered consideration as the league’s best running back entering 2024. Still just 24 years old, he is more than capable of recapturing that potential.

Behind Hall, the Jets have Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis, who were both very efficient in their limited roles as rookies. Among 91 running backs (min. 30 carries), Allen and Davis ranked 34th and second, respectively, in rushing DVOA.

The Jets’ coaching staff is embracing a committee approach in the backfield, which should maximize Hall’s freshness and home-run-hitting potential. Allen is a battering ram who offers uber-efficiency in short-yardage situations. Davis lacks long speed but is a jittery mover with solid vision who can keep the chains moving.

Even at wide receiver, the Jets have significantly improved their collective run-blocking ability, which is critical considering it was a weakness in 2024.

The run game’s only major question mark is the blocking at tight end. In the starting role, the Jets are relying on second-round rookie Mason Taylor, who is better known for his receiving than his blocking. Beyond Taylor, the Jets don’t have a proven blocker on the tight end depth chart.

However, the Jets do have Andrew Beck, who, while listed as a fullback, began his NFL career with four seasons at tight end. Beck is a strong blocker either in-line or in the backfield and can cover up the Jets’ blocking deficiencies on the tight end depth chart.

At offensive coordinator, the Jets are taking a risk by betting on a young first-timer in Tanner Engstrand. But if Engstrand can handle the pressure, his background suggests he should thrive at scheming up a run game. He hails from a Detroit offense that relied on a run-first approach to set up the play-action pass game, which Engstrand contributed to as the pass game coordinator.

To summarize, the Jets have a top-tier run-blocking offensive line, an all-time-great running quarterback, a balanced three-man backfield, solid blocking at wide receiver, a versatile fullback-type in Beck, and a coordinator from an elite rushing offense. They could hardly ask for more when it comes to run-game talent.

Bring these pieces together, and it is difficult to imagine the Jets not having one of the absolute best rushing attacks in football.

What’s the catch?

What makes this Jets offense so puzzling to evaluate is the dichotomy between their run and pass games. As promising as the run game is, their pass game looks equally dubious.

Until proven otherwise, Fields should be viewed as one of the least effective passers in the NFL among starting quarterbacks.

At wide receiver, the Jets have one great player in Garrett Wilson, but their depth chart past the No. 1 option might be the thinnest in the NFL. Josh Reynolds currently projects as the No. 2 wide receiver.

While that model can work (the Lions’ offense was elite with Reynolds as the WR2 in 2023), it is difficult to pull off without a quarterback who is at least very good. Detroit had Jared Goff. Justin Fields is nowhere close to Goff’s level when it comes to processing or accuracy.

With no other outside threats to worry about, opponents will aggressively shade coverage toward Wilson to make Fields scan the field past his first read. Barring substantial improvement to his processing, that will spell trouble for the Jets.

The Jets do have two intriguing pass-catching options outside of the wide receiver spot. Mason Taylor is built to succeed as an NFL receiver, while Breece Hall has the most receiving yards among running backs since 2023. Ideally, Taylor and Hall slide in as the Jets’ second and third targets in the pass game.

There are concerns with both players, though.

Taylor is a rookie. Tight ends are often believed to have one of the steepest learning curves of any position. Will Taylor be ready to contribute as a rookie? It’s possible, but not guaranteed. If he’s not ready, the Jets might be left with Wilson as their lone threat at wide receiver or tight end.

While Hall has amassed excellent counting stats as a receiver, that is largely because the Jets have peppered him with targets. Hall’s hands need improvement; he tied for the most drops among running backs with eight last season, and he has 17 in his career. His career drop rate of 10.1% is poor. This is not ideal for a running back poised to receive a hefty dosage of targets in an offense that lacks reliable options at wide receiver.

The most reliable aspect of the Jets’ pass game is the offensive line. They were already a decent group last year, and that was with first-round rookie Olu Fashanu only playing six games at his natural position. With a full season of Fashanu at left tackle and the addition of Armand Membou (whose pass-blocking film is sneakily more impressive than his run-blocking film), the Jets should be one of the better pass-blocking teams.

Overall, though, the outlook for the Jets’ pass game is bleak. There are reasons for optimism, but objectively speaking, this is one of the least impressive aerial attacks in the NFL on paper. The Jets have one of the most inefficient passers among starting quarterbacks and one of the thinnest wide receiver units. Those are tough obstacles to work around.

Can this model work?

The Jets’ run game could be elite. Their pass game could be one of the worst.

Is it possible to field a solid overall offense with this model?

Greatness is unquestionably outside the realm of possibility with a poor pass game in the 2025 NFL. Still, maybe if the Jets’ run game is close to the league’s best, it could be possible for the Jets’ offense to be around league average overall.

Let’s look at recent NFL history to understand what is achievable when a team is excellent at rushing but subpar at passing.

Over the past four seasons, nine teams have finished top-10 in rushing DVOA and bottom-16 in passing DVOA. Here are those nine teams, along with their finish in overall offensive DVOA.

  • 2024 Colts: 10th run, 22nd pass, 20th overall
  • 2023 Colts: 8th run, 17th pass, 13th overall
  • 2023 Cardinals: 9th run, 23rd pass, 21st overall
  • 2023 Bears: 10th run, 25th pass, 22nd overall
  • 2022 Packers: 4th run, 18th pass, 12th overall
  • 2022 Raiders: 5th run, 19th pass, 15th overall
  • 2022 Bears: 7th run, 30th pass, 24th overall
  • 2021 Colts: 1st run, 18th pass, 12th overall
  • 2021 Browns: 2nd run, 21st pass, 15th overall

On average, these teams finished 17th in offensive DVOA. They went as low as 24th but as high as 12th. Five teams had a top-16 offense, and four had a bottom-16 offense.

This gives us a pretty firm baseline: An NFL offense can be around league-average, or even slightly above-average, with a strong run game but a subpar pass game. The ceiling is firmly capped outside of the top 10, though.

However, the pass game must be at least respectable to field an overall offense around league average. Of the five teams that finished in the top 16 in overall offense, their average pass game ranking was 19th (ranging from 17th to 21st). Among the four teams that finished 20th or worse in overall offense, their average pass game ranking was 25th (ranging from 22nd to 30th).

This gives us an answer to our initial question: Can the Jets field a solid overall offense with an elite run game but one of the worst pass games?

No.

Even if the Jets’ run game is dominant, their offense will likely be well below average if their pass game is one of the worst.

But if the Jets’ pass game can scrape its way to the 17-20 range (slightly below average), it would be a respectable enough anchor for an elite run game to lead New York to average-to-above-average overall offense.

How do they complement one another?

The most complex aspect of this conversation is deducing which facet of the offense will have a greater effect on the other.

On one hand, it can be argued that the Jets’ run game will make life easier on the pass game. If the Jets are an elite rushing team, opponents will be forced to stack the box, opening up more room for the pass game. Engstrand’s Lions excelled at luring teams toward the line of scrimmage and burning them with play action.

On the other hand, it can be argued that the Jets’ dismal pass game might hold back the run game. If Fields and the Jets’ limited receiving lineup cannot punish opponents for loading the box and playing man-to-man on the outside, defensive coordinators will clamp down on the run game all day long with no repercussions in the pass game, shutting down the Jets’ entire offense.

Sure enough, we have already seen two instances of this internal battle with Justin Fields-led teams. Let’s refer back to the list of nine teams that we analyzed earlier:

  • 2024 Colts: 10th run, 22nd pass, 20th overall
  • 2023 Colts: 8th run, 17th pass, 13th overall
  • 2023 Cardinals: 9th run, 23rd pass, 21st overall
  • 2023 Bears: 10th run, 25th pass, 22nd overall
  • 2022 Packers: 4th run, 18th pass, 12th overall
  • 2022 Raiders: 5th run, 19th pass, 15th overall
  • 2022 Bears: 7th run, 30th pass, 24th overall
  • 2021 Colts: 1st run, 18th pass, 12th overall
  • 2021 Browns: 2nd run, 21st pass, 15th overall

The two worst overall offenses in that group? Fields’ Bears teams.

In 2022 and 2023, Fields led Chicago to top-10 finishes in rushing DVOA. However, it did little to amplify the efficiency of Chicago’s pass game, as they finished 30th and 25th through the air.

As we discussed earlier, this is below the required pass-game threshold to field an average overall offense. So, Chicago finished 24th and 22nd in overall offensive DVOA despite their top-10 rushing finishes.

Some teams successfully use the prowess of their run game to facilitate a much better pass game than they would otherwise be capable of operating. Fields-led teams have failed to do this. Instead of using the threat of the run game to their advantage, Fields’ teams have wasted the value of their top-tier rushing ability.

Much of that falls on Fields himself.

To capitalize on the extra space afforded by an elite run game, the quarterback must be able to beat the blitz. As a product of allocating more box defenders to stop the run, opponents tend to blitz at a much higher rate against strong rushing teams. The quarterback needs to capitalize on these opportunities to throw against fewer defenders in coverage.

This is where Fields has wasted the advantages presented by his own rushing prowess. In 2023, Fields had a passing DVOA of -29.7% against the blitz, which ranked 34th out of 39 qualified quarterbacks. His company is not the kind you want to share:

  • 32. Mac Jones, NE (-23.5%)
  • 33. Will Levis, TEN (-27.2%)
  • 34. Justin Fields, CHI (-29.7%)
  • 35. Bryce Young, CAR (-49.0%)
  • 36. Tommy DeVito, NYG (-58.0%)
  • 37. Deshaun Watson, CLE (-58.3%)
  • 38. Bailey Zappe, NE (-64.3%)
  • 39. Daniel Jones, NYG (-80.2%)

In 2022, he ranked 32nd with a DVOA of -22.0% against the blitz, three spots behind Zach Wilson.

This is the primary metric where Fields must improve to begin maximizing the advantage of his teams’ run games. When looking at the top of the yearly leaderboards in this category, we see many of the quarterbacks who first come to mind when we think of passers who profit off a strong run game; Brock Purdy and Jared Goff had top-10 finishes in each of the past two seasons.

It would be unfair to place all of the blame on Fields for his performance against the blitz in Chicago. In 2022, he had an atrocious receiving unit that featured Darnell Mooney, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Dante Pettis as its top three wideouts. While the Bears gave him D.J. Moore in 2023, Chicago was still graded as the league’s 10th-worst pass-blocking team by PFF, while offensive coordinator Luke Getsy was rated as one of the league’s least efficient play callers.

Still, the film shows that Fields takes plenty of ownership for his brutal performance as a passer. He is a slow processor who lacks anticipation on his throws and often makes reckless decisions. While he has not been dealt the best of hands, his underperformance to this point falls on him. It is up to Fields to find ways to iron out the wrinkles in his game.

Of those wrinkles, his passing against the blitz is among the most glaring. It is the primary reason he has failed to capitalize on the advantage of having a top-10 run game – an advantage that he is largely responsible for creating through his own world-class athleticism.

It all comes down to Fields’ ability to capitalize

The Jets’ run game has a strong chance to be one of the NFL’s best this season. But it will hardly matter if their pass game cannot be at least competent.

And for the Jets to achieve that desired competency through the air, Fields must become a respectable passer against the blitz. If he pulls that off, the Jets’ aerial attack may just be decent enough for their run game to carry the offense to around league average.

In the long run, New York’s offense will have to be better than merely league average to seriously compete for a championship. It’s why Fields is probably not the franchise’s long-term answer, barring a seismic turnaround in his passing skills.

But in the meantime, as the Jets retool the roster and rebuild their culture, a league-average offense could be enough for New York to push for their first playoff appearance in 15 years. It is a necessary first step before the Jets set their eyes on championship contention, and Fields is on the precipice of being good enough to lead them to that first step.

He’s just got to figure out the blitz. It’s easier said than done, but if a change of scenery and good coaching could take Sam Darnold from the “Seeing Ghosts” game to a 35-touchdown season, then anything is possible for Fields.