As broken down by Jet X’s Robby Sabo, it felt like the Buffalo Bills’ defense knew what was coming on every play during their 30-10 beatdown of the New York Jets.
“Not even a cheat code allows an offense to run the ball effectively if the defense guesses perfectly,” wrote Sabo. “I don’t care who’s playing quarterback; if linebackers and defensive backs are shooting through the line of scrimmage before the handoff or potential mesh point even occurs, forget about it. Quite literally, nothing can be done.
“The Jets’ opening drive featured Buffalo’s defense outright guessing the play on a perfect 3-for-3.”
And, no, a Spygate-esque scandal will not be arising in Buffalo anytime soon. If you want to know how Buffalo guessed the Jets’ offensive play-calling so easily, just look at the numbers.
According to the following chart from Ben Baldwin, the Jets have the NFL’s lowest first/second-down pass rate (adjusted to exclude garbage time and two-minute situations) at just over 35%.
Not only is it the league’s lowest mark, but it isn’t remotely close. No other team is below the 40% mark. The margin between New York (35%) and 31st-ranked Seattle (42%) is similar to the margin between Seattle and 25th-ranked Tennessee (49%).
With numbers like this, it is no shock that Buffalo seemed to know what was coming in Week 2.
Do the simple math. If the Bills sent a run blitz on every first and second-down play against the Jets, they would guess right about two-thirds of the time.
Those are pretty fantastic odds for the defense – odds that no smart NFL offense should be yielding in the year 2025.
Not only was it easy for the Bills to guess right, but their correct guesses led to tremendous results. The high reward of guessing correctly made it worthwhile to leave themselves susceptible to occasionally getting hit with a pass attempt.
When Buffalo sniffed out an early-down Jets run, there was a good chance they would stuff the run for a loss or short gain. This would bury the Jets in third-and-long situations, which is a nearly impossible position for New York’s offense due to its limitations at quarterback and wide receiver.
Excluding scrambles, the Jets averaged 2.9 yards per carry on first and second down against Buffalo. They totaled 40 yards on 14 designed carries, with a whopping six of the 14 (43%) yielding two yards or fewer.
Across five series of downs in which the Bills stuffed at least one run (≤2 yards) on first or second down, the Jets never went on to move the chains. Those series resulted in four punts and a field goal attempt.
When you know the opponent will run the ball two-thirds of the time on first and second down, and that they cannot climb out of the hole if you stuff them on the early downs, it is a no-brainer to attack the run game with reckless abandon on almost every play.
The Jets are not good enough offensively to succeed despite predictability. Teams like Philadelphia are physically dominant enough to run the ball down opponents’ throats even when they know it’s coming, while teams like this year’s Chargers (so far) and last year’s Bengals can succeed with a pass-heavy approach because their quarterbacks are just that good.
New York isn’t there yet. With their current personnel, the Jets can only be successful offensively if the play caller puts them in advantageous situations by way of unpredictability.
Buffalo sold out on the Jets’ run game in Week 2, leading to tremendous results. However, this strategy did not come without risks. If you spend the entire game focusing on the run, you will be highly vulnerable when the changeup comes, even if that isn’t very often.
In the off chance that New York threw the ball on Sunday, the Bills did allow numerous favorable opportunities for Justin Fields to make plays through the air. Fields just couldn’t capitalize on them.
That’s five blatant misses by Fields – and he only dropped back 15 times in the game. If a quarterback is going to miss an open receiver on 33% of his dropbacks, the defense won’t be afraid of leaving themselves susceptible in the back end.
This is why Buffalo defensive coordinator Bobby Babich was more than content to play the odds and sell out on the run game. Not only did he know that he would probably guess right the majority of the time, but he knew that Fields was unlikely to punish Buffalo if they guessed wrong.
It’s a calculated gamble – and a smart one, given Fields’ inconsistent career track record as a passer. Every defensive coordinator who plays the Jets this year will attempt to copy this blueprint until New York’s quarterback gives them a reason to think twice.
With Tyrod Taylor under center this week, the Jets may have a better chance of forcing the opponent to respect the pass. Taylor doesn’t offer nearly the same athleticism or running threat as Fields, but he certainly provides better accuracy and decision-making from the pocket.
Taylor’s presence should encourage Jets offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand to begin tweaking his play calling approach on the early downs. While everyone knows the Jets want to be a run-first team, they are taking it a little bit too far.
It’s one thing to be among the league’s run-heaviest teams, but the Jets are currently in their own stratosphere with their early-down run-heaviness. When you run on nearly two-thirds of your first and second down plays, you are ceding too much information to the opponent.
The Jets should strive to at least climb up the mid-forties in this category. They would still be one of the run-heaviest teams, yet they would be close enough to 50-50 to keep opponents on their toes.
Even when Fields returns, Engstrand must sustain a higher pass-play percentage on first and second down. New York’s game plan worked for one week before there was any tape on them, but as soon as an opponent got a chance to study the Jets’ offense, they knew exactly what to expect.
This week, the Jets will face Todd Bowles, one of the most dedicated run-blitzing coaches in the NFL. Bowles loves to send extra bodies into the backfield, with the particular goal of stopping the run, as Bowles’ defenses tend to be excellent in that phase.
If Engstrand once again elects to run on 35% of his early-down play calls, Bowles will stomp him out all game long, just like Buffalo did. It will then come down to whether Tyrod Taylor can convert third-and-longs with a WR/TE unit whose second-leading option has 31 yards in two games – not a great bet.
This Jets offense is built to succeed by staying ahead of the chains. The run game can be a good way to achieve that goal, but not when the opponent knows it’s coming. Mixing in a healthy dosage of early-down passes is an essential goal for New York’s first-year coordinator moving forward.
And he can start this week against a Bucs team that will yield plenty of chances to throw the ball behind their blitzes.
