Fernando Mendoza is currently the top quarterback prospect in the 2026 NFL draft. “Mendoza Mania” is running rampant, even reaching all corners of New York Jets fandom.
It makes perfect sense.
Jets fans haven’t experienced the fruits of stable quarterback play in some time. Worse yet, the multi-decade search for Joe Namath’s genuine replacement trudges forward.
So, fans will, of course, salivate over the Heisman Trophy winner’s every move, as he advances in the College Football Playoff—his latest effort coming in the form of 192 yards and 3 touchdowns on an efficient 14 of 16 passing in the Indiana Hoosiers’ utter domination over the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Simply put, Fernando Mendoza has become the Jets fans’ next great hope. This is the case despite most mock drafts featuring the kid going to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 1.
Yet, the football world has wholly fallen forward while skiing down the slope. This isn’t a uniquely Jets fan thing, either, as the rush-to-judgment evaluation on Mendoza has placed NFL teams in a sticky predicament.
Forget hope for a moment; the conversation should first center on the kid’s actual evaluation. It’s with that context that we arrive at the point at which Fernando Mendoza shouldn’t even be close to the undisputed QB1 in the NFL draft.
That’s not to say he cannot be the top quarterback prospect, only that the “Mendoza or Bust” angles ring incredibly untrue.
Evaluation gaps
Fans, analysts, coaches, and scouts often raise the idea of a collegiate quarterback prospect entrenched in a heavy 3-step and/or RPO (run-pass option) system as an alarming red flag. Well, I’m here to tell you this: A quarterback whose only experience comes from within those heavy principles has no bearing on his pro potential.
It’s never about that type of experience, per se. It’s instead about how those principles potentially hide evaluation items.
When analyzing Fernando Mendoza, the thing that stands out most is how Indiana’s offense is designed to freeze the pass rush. This results in tape that makes it more challenging to evaluate Mendoza’s poise and production against a defensive front—particularly in relation to pressure.
In fact, Mendoza’s playstyle and college scheme more closely resemble Clemon’s Trevor Lawrence than some of the other comparisons currently out there (i.e., Matt Ryan or Jared Goff).
Potential fatal flaw: Pocket feel/poise vs. pressure
Mendoza’s most frightening concern revolves around his overall pocket feel and poise against the pass rush.
Routinely, he either tears apart the defense when something’s available in the three-step/on-schedule game, or he fully extends the play while trying to make a backyard throw happen. In other words, there’s very little in between those two extremes.
Granted, he’s tremendously productive in the three-step game. He’s smart when scanning the pre-snap defense, and his mind is quick when deciphering post-snap reads in those three-step situations.
This is a great positive for scouts because the bulk of the NFL is a three-step world.
However, those who believe Mendoza is the traditional pocket passer are sadly mistaken.
Curt Cignetti and Mike Shanahan (no relation to the familiar NFL name) have put forth one of the most dominant coaching performances in recent college football history. Mendoza has enjoyed a phenomenal advantage this season.
That’s not to say he’s destined to bust at the NFL level, but ignoring that reality is how pro organizations make some of the most brutal mistakes at the draft. It’s how a guy like Patrick Mahomes goes No. 10 or Josh Allen goes No. 7.
Breaking clean pockets
One of Fernando Mendoza’s most troubling traits is his eagerness to break a clean pocket. He’s oftentimes uncomfortable in a clean pocket, wanting to duck his head down and bolt:
Not only was there no reason to give up on the downfield game, but he placed himself in harm’s way once his left tackle guided the edge downhill.
Again, against Ohio State, he looks to break the pocket against a three-man rush:
Where’s the danger?
Granted, there’s a certain level of “take off and run” coaching Cignetti is preaching to Mendoza—as turning a second-and-8 into a third-and-4 is advantageous—but this trait goes well beyond coaching. Mendoza’s natural tendency is to abandon all structure when the original plan is not present.
Breaking it down the line
The next example against Iowa shows Mendoza climb the pocket correctly, but yet again, he breaks it. This is precisely what he wants to do when breaking the pocket—get down the line as quickly as possible while trying to make a fully-extended play:
Against Oregon, we see a similar pattern:
Where’s the fire to have to intentionally flush yourself to the right, especially when the solo-side weapon is dealing with two defenders?
Had he just hung in there with a beautiful pocket—seriously, Indiana couldn’t have pass-protected any more flawlessly—he could have read the leverage on the left side and hit the corner route.
This natural tendency of wanting to break the pocket down the line will not fly in the professional ranks. The level of the NFL athlete just won’t let it occur.
Throwing with noise in reach
The other alarming and evident issue on tape is Mendoza’s throws when the pocket isn’t perfect. He’s not nearly the same quarterback when noise or traffic is close.
The Hoosiers’ game against Iowa is a piece of tape that challenged the Heisman Trophy winner. It’s also one of Indiana’s worst offensive line performances of the season.
With a shallow cross running open underneath, Mendoza could not pull the trigger quickly enough to hit it against edge pressure that beat the right tackle inside:
Again, trouble arises when the right tackle is beaten.
This time, to the outside, and despite the argument that he guided him downhill just enough to avoid trouble, Mendoza moved with the play, to the right, which allowed the rusher to get his hand on the throw:
Why float to the right there? Indiana’s interior three hogs did a tremendous job of creating a wall.
All Mendoza needed to do was step up just an inch and put some anticipatory touch to target the shallow cross in stride.
Evidence to the contrary
What’s a film review with evidence to the contrary? Make no mistake about it: It’s not all bad for Fernando Mendoza against pressure.
Generally speaking, Mendoza features positive pass-rush traits when the three-step/on-schedule plan is evident. In other words, when there’s little time to think or improvise, Mendoza has no problem taking a monster hit to make a throw:
After reading the three-deep shell and buzzing safety to the flat, Mendoza confidently delivered a strike down the seam while standing tall in the pocket. Better yet, he did so in nut-cutting time.
Another example shows Mendoza delivering a perfectly in-stride ball on the field side without a perfect pocket at his disposal:
Granted, the pocket wasn’t a complete disaster, but the blitzing wide defender was near his feet, and a couple of rushers were bearing down on him. And yet, Mendoza puts forth one of the most impressive throws a collegiate quarterback can make on tape.
Again, it’s the “in-between” game that’s under the microscope here.
Most of his “on-schedule” stuff is phenomenal. Even some of his “fully-extended” and/or “backyard” stuff while throwing on the run makes scouts smile.
What lies between those two extremes is where uncertainty resides, and it’s that critical aspect of the professional quarterback position that most significantly impacts the success of NFL organizations. The way in which he ducks his head while giving up on the downfield passing concepts, at the first sign of trouble, is worrisome.
While there’s no doubt that Mendoza is a worthwhile quarterback prospect, the “Mendoza or Bust” narrative is for the birds. Along with Oregon’s Dante Moore and Alabama’s Ty Simpson, Fernando Mendoza’s draft stock is much closer to the top three as opposed to clear-cut QB1.
Hopefully, the New York Jets realize this as well. Either way, we have only just begun this process.
