Each year, as we inch closer to the NFL’s official schedule release, analysts and fans around the league begin discussing where each team ranks in the “strength of schedule” metric.

It’s one of the most meaningless stats in all of sports, but it generates hoopla nonetheless.

Based on records from the 2025 season, the New York Jets’ 2026 schedule is the 12th-most difficult in the NFL, with a win percentage of .517.

It should go without saying, though, that this means close to nothing.

Most NFL teams experience large changes in their win total each year. For instance, from the 2024 season to the 2025 season, the average NFL team saw a change of 3.1 wins. That’s the difference between a 10-7 team and a 7-10 team.

More than a third of the league (12 of 32 teams) saw their win total change by at least 4 wins, the difference between an 11-6 team and a 7-10 team.

If we know that NFL teams are expected to see their records change by this much, what sense does it make to use the previous season’s win-loss records to project the difficulty of an upcoming schedule?

Just look at last year’s projections. Four of the top five teams with the most difficult “strength of schedule” based on 2024 records ended up having one of the league’s easiest schedules.

The Detroit Lions (T-2nd, .571), Chicago Bears (T-2nd, .571), Philadelphia Eagles (4th, .561), and Dallas Cowboys (5th, .557) each had schedules that looked challenging based on 2024 records. Ultimately, though, all four of those teams faced a 17-game slate with a sub-.500 record, some of them falling well below: Detroit was at .490, Philadelphia at .476, Chicago at .458, and Dallas at .438.

While it still isn’t perfect, a more reasonable way to project a team’s strength of schedule is to use Vegas win totals. At least this accounts for offseason moves, expected regression to the mean, and other factors that go unaccounted for by assuming that every team will have the same record.

Based on Vegas win totals, the Jets are projected to have the fifth-easiest schedule in 2026, a byproduct of their fourth-place schedule. By finishing last in the AFC East, the Jets drew matchups against the Titans (6.5 over-under wins), Browns (6.5), and Cardinals (4.5). They also get two matchups against the Dolphins (4.5).

Despite their No. 12 ranking in strength of schedule based on 2025 win totals, it seems much more accurate to say that the Jets have one of the league’s easiest schedules. Even so, we have no idea how any NFL team will fare in the upcoming season, so all schedule projections should be taken with a grain of salt.

Strength of schedule metrics carry more value after the fact. Once the season is said and done, we can say with certainty how difficult a schedule each team faced. From there, we can use strength of schedule to adjust a team’s performance; teams that faced tough schedules were better than they looked on the surface, and vice versa.

For now, it’s too early to pinpoint the games on New York’s schedule that will be cakewalks or Herculean challenges. After all, every team that the Jets might circle as an easy win is doing the same for them. That won’t change until New York goes out there and wins games.