While everyone knows that Breece Hall will be the New York Jets’ workhorse running back this season, how the Jets will ultimately distribute carries remains unknown.
After projecting how the Jets will divvy up targets to their pass-catchers this year, let’s give it a whirl when it comes to their rushing game.
How often will the Jets rush the ball?
Right from the jump, it was clear that Aaron Glenn’s goal in 2025 was to make the Jets a gritty, smash-mouth football team with a heavy emphasis on the rushing game.
It’s a key reason the organization signed Justin Fields to play quarterback. Gang Green was hoping they could get by with an elite rushing attack to make up for their shortcomings in the passing game.
As fans saw quickly, that blueprint ultimately didn’t come to fruition.
Fields was benched after nine games, leading the team to a 2-7 start, while the Jets finished the year as one of the worst, if not the worst, offensive teams in the league. They ended up finishing the season with the second-fewest offensive touchdowns in the NFL (26).
Rushing-wise, the team finished 11th in the league in rushing yards (2,096) while ranking 20th in attempts (456).
This year, the Jets’ rushing attempts should be expected to go up, despite their emphasis on the run game going into last season. New York spent most of the 2025 season trailing, preventing them from racking up rushing attempts. The Jets are expected to be more competitive this season, which should lead to more rushing attempts to close out games.
I’d expect the Jets to have somewhere around 460 to 480 rushing attempts in 2026, a slight uptick from last year.
But with Geno Smith at quarterback instead of a running quarterback like Fields, an even larger portion of the touches will go to the backfield, creating more opportunities for Breece Hall and company.
With Smith being able to do the simple things more efficiently than Fields, the rushers should be in a better position to make the most of their attempts.
How exactly will the Jets distribute those attempts, though?
Breece Hall’s projection
While playing behind a stable offensive line for the first time in his career, Hall set a career high in rushing yards (1,065) while notching four touchdowns and averaging 4.4 yards per attempt on 243 carries.
Expect Hall’s production to be in a similar range this season. It would be nice to see him surpass 1,100 rushing yards on the ground, as it would signal another positive improvement after earning a lucrative three-year extension this offseason.
Hall should be expected to make slight improvements as a rusher. Let’s say he creeps up to 250 carries and stays around his 4.4 yards per attempt. With those numbers in mind, I have Hall finishing with 1,105 rushing yards and five touchdowns.
Add that to 35 receptions, 425 yards, and two receiving touchdowns, which we projected for Hall in our target-distribution predictions. Altogether, we’d be looking at the Iowa State product finishing the year with 1,530 all-purpose yards and seven total touchdowns.
Last year, Hall also did an outstanding job of generating yards over expected in both the rushing and receiving games. The former second-round pick logged 142 RYOE (rushing yards over expected) and 99 YACOE (yards after catch over expected), totaling 241 yards over expected.
- Bijan Robinson, ATL (514) — 257 RYOE, 257 YACOE
- James Cook, BUF (389) — 358 RYOE, 31 YACOE
- Derrick Henry, BAL (370) — 340 RYOE, 30 YACOE
- Jaylen Warren, PIT (305) — 181 RYOE, 124 YACOE
- Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (298) — 167 RYOE, 131 YACOE
- Jonathan Taylor, IND (274) — 195 RYOE, 79 YACOE
- Breece Hall, NYJ (241) — 142 RYOE, 99 YACOE
- Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (234) — 176 RYOE, 58 YACOE
- De’Von Achane, MIA (231) — 242 RYOE, -11 YACOE
- TreVeyon Henderson, NE (158) — 149 RYOE, 9 YACOE
Overall, if Hall finishes the 2026 season as we project, it would certainly be a successful year for the RB.
Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis
Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis have certainly shown potential, but over two seasons in the league, neither one has established themselves as a reliable rusher.
Entering their third year in the league, it’s time for both of them to prove their consistency this season. We’ve seen flashes from both players, but nothing sustainable, which is why they are entering a “prove-it” type of season.
Allen’s 2025 season was cut short after suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 4, shortly after fumbling near the goal line on the first possession of the game. The mistake allowed the momentum to first swing in Miami’s way before the Dolphins secured a 27-21 victory.
As our own Michael Nania broke down, Allen would thrive in a situational role as a short-yardage back. Entering the season at 250 pounds, a 15-pound increase from last year, he is going to be even more impactful in short-yardage situations on third or fourth down.
Throughout his career, Allen has converted 12 of 15 rush attempts on third or fourth down with two or fewer yards to go, an 80% rate, which is far higher than the league average of 70.7%. If he is able to develop into the Jets’ long-term short-yardage back, that would be a huge win for the Jets, who selected him in the fourth round two years ago.
We’ll say that Allen finishes the year with 130 carries for 482 yards (3.6 yards per attempt) and four touchdowns, developing into a solid short-yardage piece, but not much more than that.
As for Davis, I project that he’ll finish the year with 80 carries for 384 yards (4.8 YPA) and two touchdowns.
In his first two NFL seasons, Davis has been highly effective over limited touches, averaging 5.6 YPA across 73 total attempts. This past season, his 5.5 YPA was the fifth-best among 74 qualified RBs (minimum 40 carries).
The hope this season for Davis and Allen is to prove that they can be reliable backups behind Hall.
Predictions
- Breece Hall: 250 carries, 1,105 yards (4.4 YPA), and five touchdowns
- Braelon Allen: 130 carries, 482 yards (3.6 YPA), and four touchdowns
- Isaiah Davis: 80 carries, 384 yards (4.8 YPA), and two touchdowns
