NY Jets’ defense is doomed if one of its top stars doesn’t rebound

When your defense allows 64 points and forces no turnovers over a two-game span, numerous parties are at fault. No individual can be blamed for that level of defensive ineptitude.

The New York Jets’ defense was abysmal over its first two games of the 2025 season. The list of culprits is lengthy, with the boldest text belonging to names like Brandon Stephens, Micheal Clemons, Marcelino McCrary-Ball, and even the Jets’ coaching staff for their strange game plan against Buffalo.

Those parties should have been expected to struggle, though. Stephens was one of the most picked-on corners in football last year. Clemons and McCrary-Ball are practice squad-level talents. The coaching staff is brand-new and might need some time to nail down its schematic identity.

Once the coaches find their footing, the Jets’ defense has enough talent to be a solid unit despite a few holes in the depth chart. However, that can only happen if the talent plays up to its potential.

That brings us to the Jets defender who has played the furthest below his talent level thus far: slot cornerback Michael Carter II.

Michael Carter II’s early struggles in 2025

Through two games, Carter II has displayed the largest gap between expectations and production on the Jets’ defense. It is players like him who carry the greatest burden in turning around New York’s defense, rather than the low-level players (like Clemons and McCrary-Ball) who flat-out do not have the ability to play any better.

Carter II has the ability to play much better. If the Jets’ defense improves to playing solid football – or even just average football – Carter II’s turnaround will likely be a part of it.

New York’s 26-year-old slot corner was exploited for critical gains in each of the first two games, allowing one 31-yard reception in both contests. Overall, he has allowed 4-of-7 passes in his direction to be completed for 65 yards, with one of the incompletions being a wide-open drop that would have netted 10+ yards and a first down.

That might not sound too bad, considering Carter II allowed minimal production besides the two chunks. Consider, though, that in the 2023 season, Carter II never allowed a reception for 30+ yards across 15 games (434 coverage snaps). In fact, his 65 yards allowed in 2025 are already over a quarter of his 2023 total (258) in about 10% as many coverage snaps (45 vs. 434).

The Jets signed Carter II to a three-year, $30.8 million extension in September 2024 because of his lockdown coverage in the slot. While Carter II has never been a splashy playmaker (two career interceptions), it was customary for games to go by without Carter II’s name being mentioned on the broadcast because he was busy keeping his man silenced for four quarters.

In 2025, though, Carter II has been much more noticeable on gamedays, and not in a good way.

On top of the two 31-yard catches allowed, Carter II had a missed tackle against Pittsburgh and a holding penalty against Buffalo. Back in 2023, Carter II had a combined total of just seven missed tackles and penalties in 15 games, an average of 0.47 per game. He had six missed tackles and one penalty; this year, he already has one of each after only two games.

It often goes overlooked just how good Carter II was at his peak. In 2023, he allowed the fewest yards per slot coverage snap (0.54) among cornerbacks who played at least 200 slot coverage snaps. He dropped into slot coverage 359 times (13th-most among CB) and only yielded 195 yards (37th-most).

The Jets are supposed to have an elite nickel defender in their secondary. They have not gotten anything close to that level of play thus far.

Aberration or on the decline?

Carter II’s early struggles in 2025 are a continuation of his down year in 2024.

In 2024, Carter II came nowhere close to the level of production that earned him his extension. Despite playing less than half as many coverage snaps as in 2023 (190 vs. 434), he allowed nearly the same number of yards (215 vs. 258). Carter II also had the highest missed tackle rate of his career at 14.8%, three points above his career average.

The poor numbers could be explained away by injuries, as Carter II was never fully healthy throughout the year. He dealt with a high ankle sprain for most of training camp, and while he recovered just in time for the season opener, his early-season snaps were limited after he aggravated the injury in Week 1.

In Week 5, Carter II suffered a back injury that plagued him for the rest of the year, causing him to either sit out or play limited snaps in every remaining game.

Ultimately, Carter II finished the season with a career low of only 285 defensive snaps. He missed four games and frequently exited the 13 games he played in.

After a healthy summer in 2025, Carter II seemed poised for a bounce-back season. He played in the Jets’ first two preseason games and looked tremendous in his limited action, allowing one yard on three targets. Carter II put multiple impressive reps on film and appeared to be back in peak condition.

So far, that has not translated to the regular season.

The troubling news for New York is that Carter II might be playing through injuries again. He was listed as questionable with a shoulder injury entering Week 2, and he is on the injury report with the same ailment heading into Week 3. Carter II did not practice on Wednesday and was limited on Thursday.

A minor injury should not fully excuse his struggles, though.

Carter II missed two games in the middle of 2023 with a hamstring injury, which first popped up on the injury report three games before he sat out. It would have been easy to use the nagging hamstring as an excuse, but Carter II returned from the two-game absence looking even better, ranking as Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 cornerback in coverage (90.8 coverage grade) from Weeks 13-18 of the 2023 season.

Since signing his new contract just before the 2024 season, Carter II has not been nearly the same player. His PFF coverage grade plummeted to 47.9 in 2024, and through two games in 2025, it dropped down to 44.9.

NFL players often decline after signing lucrative contract extensions. If Carter II does not turn things around soon, it won’t be a great look.

For now, Carter II deserves the benefit of the doubt. As we sit here today, his body of work remains strong. He has a two-season sample of excellent play from 2022 to 2023, an injury-plagued 2024 season that can be mostly written off, and just two rough games in 2025.

Carter II’s 2022 and 2023 seasons still represent 80% of his post-rookie-year snaps. So, we haven’t seen nearly enough yet to claim Carter II is no longer the player he was over that stretch, especially since he is only 26 years old.

The Jets should feel relatively confident that Carter II will rebound soon. They had better hope he does, because if not, it could sink the entire defense.

Carter II is essential to the Jets’ survival

The Jets need Carter II to get back on track if this defense is going to turn things around. They already have one struggling cornerback in Brandon Stephens, so if Carter II continues to underperform, too, it would mean New York has two weak cornerbacks in the starting lineup.

That would be an impossible obstacle for any NFL defense to work around, even when the third member of that cornerback trio is someone as dominant as Sauce Gardner.

If two of the other three cornerbacks are sieves, the offense will happily ignore Gardner all game long. Gardner will silence the best weapon, but it won’t do anything to improve the Jets’ chances of winning, as the quarterback will enjoy success against Stephens and Carter II.

That’s precisely what the Steelers did in Week 1. Gardner quieted DK Metcalf, allowing him to make just one fluky catch on four targets while shadowing him for most of the game, but Aaron Rodgers still shredded New York by picking on Stephens and Carter II. Stephens gave up a touchdown and a critical penalty to Calvin Austin, while Rodgers hit Metcalf for his best gain of the day (31 yards) with Carter II as the primary defender.

If Carter II returns to peak form, the Jets can work around Stephens’ struggles and field a strong defense. They can shade help in Stephens’ direction and trust their other two corners to hold up one-on-one, making it much tougher for the quarterback to find favorable options.

But if two of the three cornerbacks are exploitable, there is little New York can do to work around it.

It all comes down to Carter II. His performance is the sole differentiator between New York having no counters or having a very solid set of counters.

That’s how important he is to this team.