Many people around the NFL expected the New York Jets to move Breece Hall at the 2025 trade deadline. With the Jets out of contention and Hall in a contract year, the explosive 24-year-old running back felt like a no-brainer trade chip.
Instead, the Jets shockingly dealt two higher-value defensive pieces in Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, while electing to hold on to Hall. It played into an overarching theme across the Jets’ deadline moves: the offense is taking priority moving forward.
The Jets dealt three defensive mainstays in Gardner, Williams, and cornerback Michael Carter II, but they did not move any offensive players. Meanwhile, they brought back two intriguing young offensive players, wide receivers Adonai Mitchell and John Metchie.
With Hall on the verge of free agency, though, it begs the question: Is Hall part of the Jets’ long-term vision to overhaul the offense?
One would think so. If you turn down draft compensation for a player on an expiring contract despite having no chance of competing for the playoffs, it would seem wise to keep that player for the long haul instead of losing him for nothing, right?
That sure seems like the sensible thing for New York to do. Hall’s situation could be more complicated, though. The young runner has subtly expressed his frustration with the Jets organization multiple times in his career, even if he’s come out publicly and affirmed his loyalty to the franchise. Hall may not be eager to return to New York.
Not to mention, Hall is a running back, and NFL fans are aware of how those contract negotiations tend to go nowadays. Some teams willingly cough up the dough for their franchise runners, and others play hardball, unwilling to commit a hefty chunk of change for a position that has been deemed as one of the sport’s least valuable.
If the Jets are hesitant to sign Hall to an extension just yet, they have the franchise tag at their disposal. However, if Hall could play hooky until the Jets either sign him to a long-term extension or trade him to a team that will.
There are numerous factors at play in what may turn out to be the Jets’ most dramatic storyline of the 2026 offseason. No factor, though, is more important than Hall’s on-field play.
Before we can discuss anything else about Hall’s future in New York, we have to answer one basic question… exactly how good is he?
Is Hall a superstar that New York would be remiss to toss aside? Is he replaceable? Perhaps he lands somewhere in between?
Let’s dive into Hall’s 2025 production through 12 games to gauge how the Jets might value him entering the final five games of the year.
Analyzing Breece Hall’s production
Expectations entering 2025
Before diving into Hall’s 2025 production, it is essential to understand where he stood entering the season.
Hall endured a scrutinized 2024 season, as he didn’t live up to the lofty expectations many had for him entering the year. The Iowa State product was widely expected to have the most productive season of any running back. Instead, it was a “meh” season for the third-year man, at least relative to expectations.
Although Hall finished with 1,359 yards from scrimmage, it was only good enough for 14th among running backs, a 12-spot dip from his second-ranked total of 1,585 scrimmage yards in 2023. He also dropped from nine total touchdowns to eight, and, more glaringly, from 68 total first downs to 55.
Hall put together his elite 2023 season despite a horrid situation around him (league-worst play from both the offensive line and the quarterback position). After the Jets improved their offensive supporting cast in 2024 (pending a healthy Aaron Rodgers, which they got), Hall was expected to leap into the RB1 throne. Yet, despite upgrades to his offensive line and quarterback, Hall’s yards per carry declined to a career-low 4.2, which was below the league average of 4.4.
Most notably, Hall set a career-high with six fumbles, double his career total entering the season.
Hall’s massive swing from 2023 to 2024 left him with a wide range of possibilities entering the 2025 season. This was a 24-year-old player who, just one year earlier, was thought to have the potential to be the league’s best running back. But after a shaky year in 2024, there was no telling what type of season Hall might have, or what kind of player he even was.
Was he an elite weapon? Or was he an average, replaceable starter?
Here is how Hall has responded to those questions through the first 12 games of 2025.
Breece Hall’s 2025 production (Standard metrics)
So far, Hall has achieved the bounce-back year that he needed. Impressively, he’s taken things beyond the realistic expectation of settling somewhere in between his 2023 ceiling and 2024 floor. In many categories, Hall has been even better than he was in 2023. He is on track for his best full season as a Jet.
Through 12 games, Hall has racked up 1,143 scrimmage yards, a career-high 95.3 per game. It puts him on pace to finish with 1,619 over 17 games, which would beat out his career-best mark by a slight margin.
Interestingly, while Hall’s 2023 scrimmage yardage total was good enough for second-best among running backs, he is only seventh in scrimmage yards per game this season. Still, give Hall credit for returning to his peak potential in this category.
It’s mainly occurred because of an uptick in his rushing production. Hall is averaging a career-high 69.5 rushing yards per game, 11 yards better than his 2023 career high. The Jets are giving him a career-high 15.6 rush attempts per game, and his efficiency has improved on the higher volume; Hall’s yards-per-carry has ticked back up to an above-average 4.5.
Perhaps most impressively, Hall has been more consistent as a rusher than ever before. He is tied for seventh at his position with 46 rushing first downs, which is already six more than his previous career high. Hall also boasts a rushing success rate of 49.7%, well above his 42.8% mark over the past two seasons.
Hall’s receiving production is down, as he’s averaging a career-low 25.8 receiving yards per game. However, that’s due to a decline in opportunities rather than his own performance. Hall is averaging a career-low 3.3 targets per game after averaging 5.1 targets over his first three seasons.
Despite getting fewer chances as a receiver, Hall is actually more efficient in the passing game than ever. He is averaging career-highs in yards per target (7.9) and receiving success rate (59%). If he maintained these rates at a similar volume of targets to what he was given over his first three seasons, his overall statistical production would be through the roof right now.
Hall’s ball security has also improved. After fumbling six times on 266 touches last season, he is down to two fumbles on 217 touches this year.
Unfortunately, both of those fumbles were recovered by the defense at a critical juncture of the game, but two fumbles on 217 touches is an acceptable rate for a starting running back. It’s still below average, though; the 2025 league average for running backs is one fumble every 123 touches, and Hall is fumbling once every 108.5 touches, so it remains an area where Hall can continue improving.
All things considered, Hall is having his most productive NFL season. He’s handling his largest workload as a rusher and has only become more efficient despite the increased volume. While the Jets aren’t featuring him as much in the passing game, Hall is doing more with each opportunity than ever before.
Breece Hall’s 2025 production (Advanced metrics)
When evaluating running backs, it is essential to account for their surroundings. That’s the way to understand their true impact on the game. Countless variables can affect box-score production, so we want to try to deduce what role the running back played in generating those numbers.
Some offensive lines are so good that you or I could score a couple of goal-line rushing touchdowns behind them. Some are so bad that prime Jim Brown couldn’t average three yards per carry behind them.
Some coaches cook up tremendous receiving opportunities for their backs to take advantage of. Some don’t even try.
Some quarterbacks are so intimidating that the defense willingly allows five yards a pop to the running back. Some are so laughable that the defense will stack the box with eight players on every play.
Without taking any of this into account, we don’t know what the running back’s actual impact was.
The running back’s job is to surpass the expectations of his situation. Perhaps that results in elite box-score numbers, perhaps it doesn’t. Either way, he should be evaluated based on what he creates relative to what is expected, not on the final results, as those final results are the product of the entire operation rather than the running back’s individual performance.
So, how does Breece Hall look when we evaluate him through this lens?
The answer: He looks even better.
Hall’s supporting cast has been much more of a hindrance than an asset this year, which paints a positive picture of Hall’s impact.
From a blocking perspective, Hall has gotten decent support this year. The Jets rank 17th in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grade and 12th in ESPN’s run-block win rate, indicating their run blocking is about average.
However, the most critical note regarding Hall’s situation is the team’s brutal quarterback play. Between Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor, the Jets are last in passing yards per game and third-worst in net yards per pass attempt. Perhaps most importantly, the Jets have attempted the third-fewest passes, which is astounding considering how often they have been trailing.
Teams are not afraid of the Jets throwing the ball. Given the Jets’ run-pass split, opposing defenses don’t expect them to do so little as to attempt throwing, and even if they do, the Jets’ passing game is too inefficient for opponents to fear that New York will make them pay for selling out to stop the run.
It’s a hellish situation for the running back. Yet, Hall has thrived. That is an indicator of legitimate positive impact from the running back position.
If Hall were an average running back, he would fold in this situation, delivering bottom-tier efficiency. Instead, his efficiency is above-average, implying that Hall is significantly exceeding the low expectations presented to him by an offense that poses absolutely no threat through the air.
The data backs this up.
According to NFL Pro, Hall has generated 124 rushing yards over expected (RYOE), ranking ninth-best among running backs. He is averaging 0.7 RYOE per carry, indicating that the average running back would be expected to produce a lowly 3.8 yards per carry in Hall’s shoes. Instead, Hall is averaging 4.5.
Hall’s performance in this metric is a critical note in his evaluation, as he struggled in this category last year. In 2023, Hall finished with just 2 RYOE, placing 58th among running backs. With an average of 0.0 RYOE per carry, Hall was basically gaining exactly what he was expected to on each run, further supporting the argument that he played like an average running back.
Hall’s turnaround in this metric represents a return to the elite heights he reached over his first two years. In 2023, he tied for sixth at the position with 146 RYOE, while matching his 2025 average of 0.7 RYOE per carry. Over just seven games in his 2022 rookie year, Hall finished 11th among running backs with 107 RYOE, averaging an absurd 1.4 RYOE per carry.
Hall is on track for his third elite RYOE season in four NFL seasons, with a league-average season in between. That’s the resume of a premier running back as he prepares to hit the open market at 25 years old in 2026.
Breece Hall is on track to demand a top-tier contract in 2026
The Jets still have nearly 30% of their season left to be played, so Hall’s numbers could change quite significantly by the time it’s all said and done.
For now, though, the reality is quite clear: Hall’s resume justifies one of the NFL’s most lucrative contracts at the running back position.
There is no question that Hall had a down year in 2024, which left his value in a murky place entering the 2025 season. However, Hall has not only rebounded, but he’s reached brand-new heights, affirmatively putting his 2024 season behind him.
It leaves his career track record in a strong place moving forward. Assuming he maintains his current production through the end of the year, he will finish with three elite seasons out of four, which is the type of resume that garners the big bucks (especially for a guy who will only be 25 to start his fifth season).
Throughout his four years in New York, Hall’s situation could hardly be less conducive to running back production. Yet, he has exceeded expectations to a substantial degree. That’s the type of running back you want on your team for the long haul as you seek to build an offensive identity.
The 2025 season has been Hall’s best work yet from a consistency standpoint. Previous iterations of Hall produced more grand-slam plays (his longest run this year is only 35 yards), but Hall has never been nearly this consistent at keeping the offense chugging, and he’s done it despite being the only man opposing defenses care about stopping.
The main concern with Hall is an apparent loss of the game-breaking explosiveness that was once his calling card. On multiple breakaway runs this year, Hall has not appeared to have the same top-end speed that he once did, resulting in him having no 50+ yard rushes or receptions through 12 games. This is despite defenses stacking the box, which should only help him in this particular area, as it leaves less help in the back end once he breaks through to the third level; he frequently profited from this in the Zach Wilson era.
While that is a concern worth noting, Hall’s uptick in consistency balances it out. In the past, when he was hitting more grand slams, Hall relied on those plays for his production; his consistency was usually subpar. Now, Hall is doing a much better job of getting downhill and finding ways to keep the offense on-schedule from play to play. You don’t see him do nearly as much dancing as he used to, helping him turn plays that used to be TFLs into chunk gains.
As the Jets seek to build an offensive identity moving forward, that type of running back can carry immense value. A consistency-focused rushing mindset can help keep the unit in manageable third- and fourth-down situations, allowing drives to be sustained. While explosive plays are attractive, consistency from play to play is what separates the league’s best offenses in today’s efficiency-based NFL, where explosive plays are going down and play-to-play success rates are going up.
Not to mention, with the Jets likely adding a young quarterback in the near future, it becomes even more important to keep the offense on schedule. Sacks and interceptions on third-and-long are the types of scars that could doom a young quarterback’s development. With Hall’s newfound consistency as a runner, he can be trusted to minimize the number of those situations that a young quarterback is forced to endure.
The fit into the team’s long-term vision is there, and so is the talent. Even without producing as many breakaway runs as he once did, Hall remains one of the league’s most productive running backs—and there is so much room for him to become even more productive on his next contract.
In the future, when the Jets ideally have a more respectable quarterback and continue growing even stronger up front, it is exciting to think about what Hall’s numbers could look like. He has consistently produced top-tier numbers despite poor blocking and stacked boxes, whereas many of his peers with similar production are playing in much more favorable situations.
If Hall switched places with many of the league’s other top fantasy running backs, he would likely outperform them in their situation, while they would fail to match his production in New York. Hall has proven himself to be a playmaker who can be relied upon to outperform what is blocked and schemed up for him, which is precisely the running back’s job.
Time will tell how the Jets elect to handle Hall in the 2026 offseason, but one thing is for certain: Hall is the kind of running back who deserves the lucrative contract he is about to receive. Some teams live to regret investing in running backs who earned their hefty contracts from gaudy box-score stats despite not actually adding much value to the team; Hall isn’t that guy. He is a value-adder, and every football team should be willing to invest in value-adders at any position, even running back.
That’s where we stand right now. For Hall, the mission is to keep his success going over the next five games. On a 17-game schedule, five games are a lot. That’s plenty of time for his numbers to trend back to where they were a year ago. Or, he could soar to even grander heights.
Hall will be tested throughout December. In each of the next three weeks, the Jets will face a team that has an above-average run defense based on DVOA: Miami (8th), Jacksonville (9th), and New Orleans (13th).
If Hall can sustain his 2025 production through this stretch of games, his status as a premium running back will be entrenched going into 2026. From there, it will be up to the Jets to decide if they’re willing to include a lucrative running back contract as part of their long-term organizational plan.
