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Super Bowl GMs
We’ve already talked about Andy Reid and the Kelce brothers, Jalen Hurts vs. Patrick Mahomes. What else is there to talk about?
Well, there’s Howie Roseman, the Eagles general manager who has gotten his team to a Super Bowl while holding two first-round picks in the 2023 draft. Roseman may have won the power struggle with Doug Pederson a few years ago, but he has undoubtedly demonstrated that he can put together a winning outfit.
From his blockbuster draft-night deal for A.J. Brown to last year’s swap with the Cowboys to grab DeVonta Smith before the Giants could to the C.J. Gardner-Johnson acquisition to signing Haason Reddick to bringing in both Ndomakong Suh and Linval Joseph midseason, Roseman has built the most loaded roster in the NFL.
On the other side, Brett Veach of the Chiefs deserves a lot of credit. Veach flies under the radar with the credit that Andy Reid gets for developing Patrick Mahomes and designing a dominant offense. However, the impact of Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Orlando Brown Jr. (despite a “down” year), JuJu Smith-Schuster, Isiah Pacheco, Trent McDuffie, Juan Thornhill, and even George Karlaftis needs to be recognized.
Yes, Mahomes is the leader and the reason Kansas City is playing in its third Super Bowl in four years, but we’ve seen other dominant QBs fail to return to the promised land. Veach shouldn’t be forgotten.
Miles Sanders vs. Isiah Pacheco
Kansas City rushed the ball just 20 times for 42 yards against Cincinnati in the AFC championship game. The 20 rushing attempts were surprising given the gimpiness of Mahomes’s ankle, but Isiah Pacheco & Co. could not get anywhere against the Bengals’ run defense. However, if there was one weakness on this Eagles team, it was run defense, as they were 21st in rush defense DVOA.
Seemingly, that would bode well for the Chiefs; however, Philadelphia’s primary weakness in the run game was against quarterbacks, and Mahomes is unlikely to be in any position to take advantage of that.
The Chiefs were middle of the pack in run defense, ranked 15th in DVOA, but they’ll face a stiff task in the Eagles. Jalen Hurts has not had much success running the football in the postseason, as he’s rushed for just 3.7 yards per carry.
However, Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott have found a lot more success, as the Eagles’ non-Hurts players are averaging 5.23 yards per carry in the postseason.
Despite two teams with MVP finalist quarterbacks, Super Bowl 57 could very well come down to which team can run the ball more effectively. The lack of rushing efficiency didn’t cost the Chiefs against Cincinnati because they limited the Bengals to 71 yards rushing themselves.
That will be tougher to do against Philadelphia, especially if a time of possession differential begins to develop.
Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl 57 Best Bets
|NFL Team or Player||Eagles vs. Chiefs
Super Bowl 57
|Philadelphia Eagles||💰 -1.5 (-110) Spread vs. Kansas City Chiefs|
|Kansas City Chiefs||💰 +1.5 (-110) Spread vs. Philadelphia Eagles|
|Philadelphia Eagles||💰 -125 Moneyline vs. Kansas City Chiefs|
|Kansas City Chiefs||💰 +105 Moneyline vs. Philadelphia Eagles|
|Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs||💰 Over-Under 50.5 Total Points (O -115 / U -105)|
|Jalen Hurts||💰 Over-Under 238.5 (O -120 / U -110) Passing Yards vs. Kansas City Chiefs|
|Patrick Mahomes||💰 Over-Under 294.5 (O -110 / U -120) Passing Yards vs. Philadelphia Eagles|
Eagles will lead at the half (-125)
Philadelphia’s offensive DVOA in the first half was third in the NFL, while Kansas City’s defensive DVOA was 23rd. Meanwhile, although Kansas City’s offensive DVOA was first in the NFL in both halves of the game, the Eagles defense was third in DVOA in the first half.
Although half-level stats are not necessarily predictive, the Chiefs showed a habit of starting slow in previous years’ playoffs. Patrick Mahomes is still on a gimpy ankle and might be without multiple receivers. Mahomes magic means that he is never truly out of a game, but I expect the Eagles to be ahead after 30 minutes.
Isiah Pacheco over 12.5 receiving yards (-115)
These odds aren’t great, but the Eagles ranked 24th in defensive DVOA against running backs during the season. Pacheco caught 20 of 22 targets for 201 yards during the regular season, and he’s hauled in seven of eight targets for 71 yards in two postseason games. That averages out to 35.5 receiving yards per game. With Mahomes gimpy and looking to check the ball down more rather than scrambling around, I expect Pacheco to beat 12.5 receiving yards.
Chiefs to call the first timeout (-115)
This pick is based on two things: Andy Reid is known to be a poor game manager, and the Chiefs called the first timeout in 15 of their 19 total games this season.
A.J. Brown to make the first catch for the Eagles (+250)
A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are tied as the favorites at +250. Brown made the first reception in eight of the Eagles’ 19 games this season, the second-highest total on any team behind only Justin Jefferson (11). However, Smith was not far behind him, nabbing the first catch six times.
There’s really no way to know for sure, but given that the Chiefs struggle so mightily against No. 1 receivers, my guess is that Jalen Hurts tests Kansas City’s young secondary early and often with one of the most dominant receivers in the game.
Brown runs a lot of slants and other in-breakers that are difficult to defend. Even if it’s just a five-yard slant, it counts as the first reception of the game.