The New York Jets need multiple receivers this offseason
If there’s one thing the New York Jets need this offseason, it’s a No. 2 receiver. Garrett Wilson was sorely lacking a teammate to take some coverage away from him in 2023, and the Jets’ quarterbacks had no other options in the receiving corps. Robert Saleh made it clear that this will be the Jets’ focus this offseason.
Still, the receiver market is expensive, and the options may be thin. Mike Evans is likely to return to Tampa Bay because he reportedly loves playing there. Michael Pittman and Tee Higgins will likely face the franchise tag. Calvin Ridley may receive a longer and larger commitment than he’s worth. Davante Adams appears likely to stay put in Las Vegas.
Of course, the Jets can turn to the draft to find their receiver, but heading into the draft needing a No. 2 receiver is not ideal. Additionally, many mock drafts project that the top three receivers in the draft (Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze) will all be off the board by the time the Jets pick.
There’s a different path the Jets can take to fill out their receiving corps — and it starts with exactly where they were last offseason.
The Jets’ 2023 Odell Beckham Jr. pursuit
Last offseason, the Jets had Wilson, Corey Davis, Allen Lazard, and Mecole Hardman as their top four receivers. They still pursued Odell Beckham Jr. quite heavily until the Ravens blew away their offer. Perhaps they would have released Davis had they signed Beckham, but the smarter move would have been to keep both.
As much as Davis was a better No. 2 receiver than Lazard, he was still a lower-end No. 2. At the right price, Beckham would have simply given the Jets tremendous depth at the position, trading top-end quality for mid-level quantity. Though it wouldn’t have created an elite receiver unit, it certainly could have taken some pressure off Wilson even if Lazard had struggled. Once Davis retired, having a Beckham would have eased the blow, even though he had an injury-riddled and largely quiet season in Baltimore.
What if the Jets try to re-create that concept this offseason? Instead of going for the top names who are likely to garner over $20 million per season, they can go for the more mid-tier talent but add more than one player. As poorly as Lazard played this past offseason, having him as the No. 4 receiver could rejuvenate his career. That would involve adding two players of a No. 3 receiver caliber.
If the Jets want to go that route, here are some of the best options available.
Notes: Brandin Cooks is not listed because he is not a free agent and there is no guarantee the Cowboys will release him. Rashid Shaheed is not listed because he is an exclusive rights free agent and the Saints will undoubtedly re-sign him. Gabe Davis and Tyler Boyd are not listed because they will likely be too expensive to fit in this category.
Kendrick Bourne
I listed Kendrick Bourne as one of the top five No. 2 receivers for the Jets to pursue. In many ways, he can be a poor man’s Corey Davis.
Bourne played eight games before tearing his ACL. In those eight games, Bourne averaged 4.6 catches for 50.8 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game in 2023. That would have translated to 79 catches for 864 yards and nine touchdowns over a 17-game season. That is in line with Davis’ second-best season in the NFL — 65 catches for 891 yards and four scores in 2018 with Tennessee.
Bourne is not necessarily superb at anything, but he’s solid. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, he ranked 33rd out of 78 qualified receivers (min. 55 targets) with a 1.9% catch rate over expected (CROE) and 26th with 58 YAC over expected. However, he ranked second-to-last with -0.27 EPA per target, in large part due to the three interceptions thrown his way and his 40.5% first down rate, ranked fourth-worst.
Still, Bourne’s 1.73 yards per route run ranked 32nd, and his 10.8% touchdown rate ranked 17th. In the Patriots’ putrid passing offense, he still managed to be a reasonably productive receiver.
Bourne can also play both inside and outside, something useful for the Jets. They like to play Wilson in the slot at times. Bourne has roughly a 70-30 split on the outside and slot in his years with the Patriots.
The biggest issue with Bourne is that he has only one season with even close to No. 2 receiver numbers sustained over a whole year. In 2021, he caught 55 balls for 800 yards and 5 scores. After that, his career high is 49 catches for 667 yards. This is despite the fact that he had been relatively healthy before his ACL tear this season, missing just two games from 2018-22.
Still, Bourne is from the Patriots mold of receivers who can block and run with the ball in their hands. He averaged 5.6 YAC per reception in 2023 (14th out of 78) and is at 5.1 for his career (25th in 2023). He is uneven with contested catches (0-for-4 in 2023) but is at 47.6% for his career, ahead of the 41.7% average among 2023 receivers. If Bourne is sufficiently healed from his ACL tear, he is worth signing on the cheap.
Odell Beckham Jr.
Perhaps it’s worth signing Beckham Jr. this year after his lesser production in 2023. Beckham dealt with some injuries this season, appearing in 14 games. Still, his 1.91 yards per route run ranked 29th, his 0.26 EPA per target ranked 25th, and his 8.8 yards per target ranked 28th. He was reasonably efficient when he was targeted, which was fairly often (25% target rate, 24th).
Beckham also dropped just one ball in 2023, ranking fifth-best in the league with a 2.8% drop rate. His hands have generally been up and down; overall, his 6% career drop rate is at the receiver average for 2023. He is not a huge contested catch guy (eye-popping highlight against Dallas notwithstanding) but he’s decent (44.9%). His overall catch rate was low (54.7%), which could be explained by his 14.9 average depth of target, but his -2.0% CROE (60th) may show the downside to his hands.
Overall, Beckham’s 16.1 yards per reception ranked eighth-best among receivers, showcasing that he still has a measure of explosiveness. If his salary is more commensurate with his 2023 performance, he could be a smart signing.
Noah Brown
The Texans’ third receiver may not be the smoothest route-runner, but he can be the deep threat the Jets need. Brown caught 7 of 11 deep targets (63.6%, fourth-best) for 258 yards and a touchdown in 2023. His 23.5 yards per target on deep balls ranked second-best, just behind his teammate, Nico Collins. Brown dropped two deep balls, though.
Overall, Brown finished the season with 33 catches for 567 yards and two scores. That translates to 56 catches for 964 yards and 3 touchdowns over a 17-game season. His 1.94 yards per route run ranked 28th out of 80 receivers with at least 50 targets.
The biggest problem for Brown is injuries. He played just 10 games this season and has played in 76 of a possible 99 games throughout his career.
Drops are also an issue for Brown, as he had a whopping 5 for a 13.2% drop rate in 2023. That was not an anomaly, as he has a 10.9% drop rate for his career. In that vein, his -3.6% CROE ranked 65th.
Furthermore, Brown played third fiddle to Nico Collins and Tank Dell with C.J. Stroud at quarterback. In 2022, he had just 43 receptions for 555 yards and 3 touchdowns over a 16-game slate with the Cowboys. Which Brown is the real Brown?
Still, he may be worth signing at the right price. If the Jets can get him for the $5 million they gave Hardman last offseason, he is worth a shot. Brown can also play on the outside, as he played wide on 60.1% of his snaps and in the slot 39.6% in 2023.
Curtis Samuel
Samuel is not an ideal fit for the Jets because he plays the majority of his snaps in the slot. His most productive seasons have come when he plays at least 70% of his snaps there.
Still, he’s likely going to be a cheaper version of Tyler Boyd. Samuel caught 62 balls for 613 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2023. Even though Jahan Dotson seemed like a breakout candidate, Samuel largely usurped his role for much of the season.
Although Samuel’s 1.52 yards per route run was not the most efficient (48th), it’s worth noting that the Commanders’ No. 1 receiver, Terry McLaurin, was barely above him at 1.56, and Garrett Wilson was at 1.55. The poor efficiency metric was largely due to a struggling passing game and a committee of targets.
Samuel put up very similar production with the Commanders in 2022 after injury wiped out most of his 2021 season. In 2020, his final year with the Panthers, he had 77 catches for 851 yards and 3 scores. Entering his age-28 season, Samuel may still be capable of that kind of production in a supporting role.
Of course, price will play a big factor. Coming off that 2022 season, Samuel received a three-year, $34 million deal with the Commanders. The Jets likely don’t want to pay that amount with Lazard on the books. Still, perhaps it’s worth giving him a two-year deal at close to that amount to have another weapon. Samuel ran a 4.31-second 40-yard dash and can be that security blanket in the slot.
Other No. 3/4 possibilities
Darnell Mooney could come cheap after being phased out of the Chicago offense. Still, he put up 81 catches for 1,055 yards and four scores in 2021 and will be entering his age-27 season.
Josh Reynolds was productive for Detroit when Amon-Ra St. Brown was injured. He took on a lesser role once Sam LaPorta came on but still posted 40 catches for 608 yards and 5 scores, averaging 15.2 yards per reception. He has inside-outside versatility. Entering his age-29 season, he could come cheap as a one-year rental with much more upside than Randall Cobb had.
A mid-round receiver
The Jets don’t need to strike Puka Nacua gold to gain value from a mid-round receiver. Dontayvion Wicks (6th round) and Demario Douglas (6th round) brought significant value to their teams in 2023. Third- and fourth-round receivers can be contributors in Year 1 even if they don’t become starters. As much as the Jets may seek to go defense in the middle rounds, they should reserve one slot for a receiver if they don’t pick one in the first round.
General plan
The Jets could choose to take pressure off Wilson by giving Aaron Rodgers other targets to spread the ball around to. Lazard generally did well in a supporting role before 2023, so he could regain some production if the Jets make him their No. 4 receiver. In many ways, Calvin Ridley could be an ideal No. 2 for the Jets since he’s more likely to accept a shorter-term deal. Still, if he prices himself out of their range and the other top targets are not available, overpaying for Davis or Boyd is not the way to go.
Signing two of the receivers mentioned would likely be the smartest way for the Jets to attack this offseason. I like the idea of Bourne because his injury is likely to push down his price, and seeing as his primary skill was not speed (he ran a 4.68), his smarts can still help him get open. Coupling Bourne with one of the other receivers and drafting a mid-round rookie could give the Jets enough firepower in their receiving corps.
Is this an ideal scenario? Obviously not. It’s better for the Jets to get the No. 2 guy. However, there is a realistic possibility that none of those players will be available. This plan can help the Jets fill out their corps at a reasonable price while still having room left to sign the offensive linemen they need.
