Where did NY Jets’ safety unit rank in 2023?

Is the safety group the New York Jets’ biggest defensive weakness?

For the second consecutive season, it appeared that the New York Jets’ safety group was the weakest link in their defense. Specifically, we’ve spent plenty of time discussing Jordan Whitehead’s struggles here at Jets X-Factor, while I identified Tony Adams as a disappointment relative to preseason expectations.

Heading into 2024, there’s a strong chance the Jets will have a new strong safety. Whether the team re-signs Chuck Clark or brings in someone else, it seems unlikely that Whitehead will return. Still, Adams’ starting free safety spot seems secure.

Evaluating Whitehead’s and Adams’ combined performance is interesting. Considering how strong the Jets’ defense was, it seems that they couldn’t have been that bad. How did their numbers stack up to the other safety tandems in the NFL, though?

In the 2023 offseason, Michael Nania assessed the Jets’ safety duo using five metrics from Pro Football Focus.

• Missed tackle rate
• Yards per target allowed
• Run stop rate
• Touchdown/interception margin
• Snaps per penalty

Although safety play is difficult to quantify statistically, these numbers are as good as any in getting a complete picture of overall performance.

Missed tackle rate

Formula: Missed Tackles / (Missed Tackles + Tackles + Assists)

• Jets safeties: 16.7% (31st)
• League average for safeties: 11.8%

Somehow, the Jets’ safeties were even worse with tackling in 2023 than in 2022, when they ranked 30th in that category at 15.5%. Whitehead (18%) and Adams (15.3%) both ranked in the bottom 15 among qualifiers at the position, while Ashtyn Davis (16%) continued his penchant for poor tackling form despite other improvements.

Adrian Amos (7.7% while with the Jets) was a saving grace statistically, bringing the safety unit down to 15.8% (29th). Still, the Jets’ safety unit struggled mightily with tackling.

Yards per target allowed

Formula: Yards Allowed / Targets

• Jets safeties: 8.5 (T-21st)
• League average for safeties: 8.1

The safeties also gave up more yards per target than the league average. Adams’ 8.5 yards per target allowed was below average, while Whitehead’s putrid 10.9 mark tied for the eighth-worst among qualifiers. Davis did a much better job, allowing just 4.9 yards per target; Amos would have also brought the number down (5.3).

Whitehead is the major negative outlier for the Jets in this category.

Stop rate

Formula: Defensive Stops / Defensive Snaps

• Jets safeties: 2.5% (T-4th)
• League average for safeties: 2.1%

As Nania explained, PFF tracks a metric called “defensive stops”, which they define as “tackles that constitute a ‘failure’ for the offense”. These are typically tackles that go for short gains on first or second down or a tackle short of the sticks on third/fourth down.

Jets safeties did a better job making defensive stops than the average. Adams (2.6%), Whitehead (2.4%), and Davis (2.8%) were all well above average in that category. Amos (2.7% with the Jets) would have fit right into this strong category.

Of course, defensive stop rate could also be a function of overly aggressive play. Whitehead plays a hard-charging style that can cause more harm than good because he overruns plays and fails to wrap up properly. Adams also struggles with taking aggressive angles rather than scraping over the top of a play. Therefore, although Jets safeties had high rankings in this category, it certainly came with its downsides.

Touchdown/interception margin

Formula: Touchdowns – Interceptions

• Jets safeties: -2 (7th)
• League average for safeties: +0.34

Adams and Davis get the credit for the Jets’ high ranking here. They combined to allow one touchdown (by Adams) while nabbing six interceptions (three each). Whitehead did the Jets no favors, as he allowed seven touchdowns, the most among safeties, while nabbing four interceptions (three in the opening game). Amos did not allow any touchdowns or snag any interceptions while with the Jets.

Penalties per 1,000 snaps

Formula: Defensive Penalties / Defensive Snaps * 1000

• Jets safeties: 1.38 (9th)
• League average for safeties: 2.26

The Jets’ safeties managed to largely avoid penalties in 2023, getting called for just three all season as a unit. Adams took two flags and Whitehead had one. Overall, the safeties stayed clean, benefiting the Jets.

Final rankings

Here are all 32 safety units sorted by average ranking across the five categories outlined above.

Overall, the Jets’ safety unit tied for the ninth-best unit in the NFL with an average rank of 14.4. Their poor missed tackle rate was offset by an ability to generate interceptions and wreak havoc on the ball when they made tackles.

Compared to 2022, when the Jets had the 28th-ranked safety unit in the league, that is a major upgrade. Adams’ ability to limit touchdowns and superior run play compared to Lamarcus Joyner in 2022 yielded a much better overall result despite Whitehead’s statistical decline.

This ranking should engender some excitement about Adams’ potential. While he certainly was not an elite safety in 2023, his ability to limit damage in the passing game, keep his penalties down, and provide some thump should allow him to keep his starting job going forward. The Jets sought an upgrade from Joyner and got one for dirt cheap.

Chuck Clark’s impact

I have long been an advocate of bringing back Chuck Clark as the starting strong safety for the 2024 season. I would also re-sign Davis for his role, as his numbers show that he did a strong job in the role assigned to him despite his poor missed tackle rate.

Here were Clark’s numbers in those five categories in 2022 compared to Whitehead’s in 2023.

• Missed tackle rate: 6.6% (Whitehead 2023: 18%)
• Yards per target: 6.1 (Whitehead: 10.9)
• Stop rate: 1.7% (Whitehead: 2.4%)
• Touchdown/interception margin: +2 (Whitehead: +3)
• Penalties per 1,000 snaps: 3.67 (Whitehead: 0.93)

While Clark did not outdo Whitehead in every category, the differences in missed tackle rate and yards per target are so dramatic as to completely overhaul the Jets’ positional average.

Had Clark replaced Whitehead in the Jets’ lineup, these would have been their ranks in each of those five categories.

• Missed tackle rate: 11.4% (11th: +20)
• Yards per target: 6.6 (T-6th: +15)
• Stop rate: 2.2% (13th: -9)
• Touchdown/interception margin: -3 (T-6th: +1)
• Penalties per 1,000 snaps: 2.74 (25th: -16)

Stop rate and penalty rate would have ranked worse, but missed tackle rate, yards per target, and touchdown/interception margin would have been better. Overall, the Jets’ average rank would have been 12.2, which would have bumped them up to the sixth safety spot over the ninth.

While that may not seem significant, the Jets’ missed tackles were arguably the biggest issue on their defense. Replacing the leaky Whitehead with the surehanded Clark could have made a tremendous difference for the Jets. Clark might not make the same highlight-reel plays, but his surehandedness combined with the rest of the defense’s punishing hits would likely have limited the big plays to a large degree.

Furthermore, even though he did not nab a single interception with the Ravens in 2022, Clark’s ability to limit touchdowns compared to Whitehead could have made the Jets’ coverage by far the best in the NFL.

An ACL tear is always a difficult injury to return from, but Clark’s biggest asset was never his speed; his 4.54 40-yard dash at the 2017 NFL Combine ranked in the 40th percentile among safeties. Rather, he used his smarts, including awareness in coverage and good tackling angles, to be a reliable backend player. Those skills do not diminish due to a torn ACL.

Overall, despite the blemishes Whitehead brought to the Jets’ defense, the safety unit still managed to be a net positive in 2023. Any improvement at strong safety could bring this defense to the next level.