Breece Hall’s past performance indicates a gap scheme change is a wise New York Jets decision
The New York Jets seemingly followed in the path of several Robert Saleh compatriots this offseason. They signaled a change from a zone scheme to a gap scheme with their offseason acquisitions. John Simpson, Morgan Moses, and Tyron Smith are all better gap-blockers than zone-blockers. Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay have also made that change in recent seasons with excellent results.
As Michael Nania explained, the change could help Breece Hall significantly. His film already shows his potential in a gap scheme. By allowing him to hit a designed gap rapidly, he can get vertical at full throttle and use his breakaway speed.
Pro Football Focus’ recent fantasy profile for Hall provided concrete numbers showing how a gap scheme can benefit Hall. Here is a chart they provided.
From 2022-23, Hall ranked in the 100th percentile in yards per attempt on gap runs at 6.2. Meanwhile, on zone runs, which constituted 55.3% of his rush attempts, he averaged 3.7 yards per attempt, ranking under the 10th percentile.
This confirms the idea that an identity shift is a good idea for the Jets. Though they have not actually confirmed the switch to the gap scheme, it seems pretty self-evident from their acquisition of Simpson, who lacks the athleticism to excel in a zone-heavy scheme.
It would be interesting to understand why the Jets decided to make such a change. Maybe Saleh saw McVay’s success from 2023 and decided to emulate it. Perhaps he noticed the ideal way to beat his own defense’s smaller, lighter linebackers and nickel packages is by running a mauling offense right down their throats. Or maybe he simply saw that the Jets were far more successful on gap runs in 2023.
With the scheme change, Hall could perform like the Rams’ Kyren Williams. Rushing in a gap scheme for Los Angeles in 2023, Williams led the NFL with 95 rushing yards per game – although Hall’s ceiling is even higher, as he offers 4.39 speed compared to Williams’ 4.65. Whereas Hall averaged a whopping 2.96 seconds to reach the line of scrimmage (30th out of 34 backs, min. 150 carries), Williams was at 2.63 seconds (7th), exemplifying the benefit of a gap scheme.
Another question is whether the shift was Saleh’s idea or Nathaniel Hackett‘s. According to Cimini, Saleh was already more involved in the Jets’ offense toward the end of the 2023 season. (That’s somewhat ironic considering that Saleh praised Hackett for nonexistent improvement in the offense toward the end of the season.) It does seem like something Saleh would come up with rather than Hackett, who is known for utilizing a zone scheme.
Either way, the key ingredients are there for Hall to have a monster season. He could become the NFL’s best back and the best player on the Jets. The gap scheme can play a role in getting him there.
