Amidst a dreary season opener in Santa Clara, Aaron Rodgers was a silver lining for the New York Jets.
Rodgers put up middling numbers in the box score, but the eye test and the advanced metrics showed a player who is very much still capable of being one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.
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One of the biggest reasons for Rodgers’ success was a dangerous combination that few quarterbacks in the league are capable of emulating: His knack for getting the ball out quickly while still challenging defenses downfield.
Aaron Rodgers’ rare TTT/ADOT combo
Two of the most important metrics for gauging an NFL quarterback’s play style are TTT (time to throw) and ADOT (average depth of target).
TTT tells us the average time that elapses from the snap of the ball to the release of the pass. ADOT tells us the average number of yards past the line of scrimmage that a quarterback’s pass travels until it reaches its intended target.
Generally speaking, a lower TTT correlates with a lower ADOT. In other words, the quarterbacks with the fastest release times are often the ones who rely on the most checkdowns and short throws. This approach helps quarterbacks protect themselves and the football, but it limits their explosive potential.
On the other end of the spectrum, quarterbacks with high ADOTs tend to have high TTTs. These quarterbacks generate plenty of big-play opportunities, but they need to hold the ball for a long time to do it, which puts them at risk of taking more sacks, hits, and pressures.
However, it is not a hard rule that TTT and ADOT will correlate. There are exceptions.
Aaron Rodgers is one of them. Rodgers breaks the system in a way that creates tantalizing potential for this Jets offense.
In his first full game as a Jet, the 40-year-old Rodgers showed that he can still be a game-changing talent when it comes to meshing release speed with downfield aggressiveness. Rodgers is capable of getting the ball out quickly without sacrificing explosiveness, which is a blend that few quarterbacks can achieve.
According to Pro Football Focus, Rodgers had a TTT of 2.33 in Week 1, which was the fastest among starting quarterbacks.
In a vacuum, that is a great number for the Jets. It reduces opportunities for the pass rush to get hits on Rodgers, allows the offense to stay on-schedule with safe high-percentage throws, and creates YAC opportunities for the Jets’ star weapons.
However, when your quarterback’s TTT is that low, it is usually associated with the cost of running an overly safe offense that lacks big-play potential. New York experienced this firsthand in 2023.
There were two games in 2023 where the Jets’ starting quarterback had a sub-2.40 TTT: Tim Boyle’s Week 12 start against Miami (2.35) and Trevor Siemian’s Week 17 start against Cleveland (2.29). Their ADOTs in those games: 4.9 and 4.3, respectively.
Those are demonstrably low numbers. For reference, the lowest ADOT among qualified quarterbacks in 2023 (among 39 QBs with 200+ dropbacks) was Jake Browning’s 6.6. Boyle’s 4.9 and Siemian’s 4.3 were both under three-quarters of Browning’s league-low mark.
Boyle and Siemian got the ball out fast, which was a welcome change from Zach Wilson’s tendency to hang onto the ball. But it meant nothing when the price was being less than 75% as aggressive as the least aggressive qualified quarterback in the NFL. That is not a worthwhile trade-off. You will not score points consistently if your average pass isn’t going five yards downfield.
Now, let’s circle back to Rodgers’ league-low 2.33 TTT against San Francisco. It’s a nice number on its own, but as we discovered by looking at Boyle and Siemian, it is not worthwhile if it comes alongside a catastrophically low ADOT.
That was not the case for Rodgers in Week 1. While having the fastest TTT in the NFL, he still managed to record an ADOT of 7.6, which ranked 15th out of the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks.
This is a combination that creates incredible potential for the Jets offense. Rodgers’ quick-passing approach will keep him safe (the most important factor for this team), generate easy completions that keep the offense on schedule, and maximize YAC opportunities for Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. At the same time, it won’t place a cap on the Jets’ explosiveness.
The key to this balance was Rodgers’ ability to uncork downfield passes in a hurry. Rodgers had three completions of 10+ air yards that were released in under 2.5 seconds, which tied him with Geno Smith for the NFL lead in Week 1.
There were only 27 of these completions across the entire league in Week 1, and Rodgers was responsible for 11% of them despite only getting to drop back 22 times. Just imagine how many of these he could hit when the defense allows him to play a full game.
Overall, Rodgers attempted 6 passes of 10+ air yards, and his TTT on those was 2.61 – second fastest in the NFL on such throws in Week 1 (Jayden Daniels was at 2.52 on 3 attempts). It is also faster than Tua Tagovailoa’s league-leading mark of 2.69 in the 2023 regular season. Joe Burrow was second at 2.81.
This specific skill is what allowed Rodgers to push his overall ADOT up to 7.6 while maintaining a TTT of 2.33. The majority of Rodgers’ passes were shorter – 71.4% of his attempts traveled under 10 yards, which was 9th-highest – but by mixing in those quick downfield shots, he was able to create a healthy dosage of big-play chances without compromising his desire to release the ball quickly.
Rodgers’ 2.33/7.6 combination against San Francisco is difficult to replicate. Only two other quarterbacks in Week 1 had a TTT below 2.50 and an ADOT above 7.5: Dak Prescott and Geno Smith.
On a full-season level, this is a combination that has yielded some phenomenal results in recent years.
In 2023, Tua Tagovailoa had the NFL’s lowest TTT at 2.33, identical to Rodgers’ mark against San Francisco. While doing so, he still managed an ADOT of 8.1, which ranked 17th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks. Tagovailoa finished as the NFL’s leading passer.
Tagovailoa largely benefited from Tyreek Hill’s historic speed and Mike McDaniel’s genius scheming, two things the Jets do not have. However, a more comparable example to Rodgers’ current situation can be found in the form of Tom Brady’s age-44 season.
In 2021, Brady also had a TTT of 2.33, which was second-fastest that year. He combined it with an 8.2 ADOT, tied for 14th. Like Tagovailoa, Brady finished as the NFL’s leading passer.
As a Buc, Brady could not move like he used to (could he ever?), so he needed to get the ball out extremely fast to protect himself. While doing so, he still had the processing speed, anticipation, and accuracy to take deep shots without holding the ball too long and putting himself at risk.
This combination was a vital part of why Brady remained a star deep into his 40s. Now, Rodgers is showing that he can mimic the same model.
