The Arizona Cardinals are red-hot entering their Week 10 matchup against the New York Jets, winning three straight games and four of their last five. Arizona now sits atop the highly competitive NFC West.
This will be a difficult game for the Jets as they seek to string together a winning streak and climb back into the playoff hunt. Not only are the Cardinals hot, but their offense matches up well against the Jets’ defense in a variety of ways. If the Jets do not deviate from their typical defensive play style, Arizona will likely have an explosive day offensively.
To keep Arizona quiet on the scoreboard, these three leaders of the Jets’ defense must make significant adjustments to their approach next Sunday.
Haason Reddick
Through his first two games as a Jet, Haason Reddick has been a fantastic addition to New York’s pass rush. He has collected 11 pressures on 51 pass-rush snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. Reddick is exploding off the ball and getting into the backfield on a frequent basis.
However, the downside of Reddick’s explosive style as a pass rusher is that he leaves the Jets vulnerable to quarterback scrambles. In just two games, the Jets have already allowed three scrambles for 51 yards with Reddick on the field. All three went for 12+ yards and a first down.
On this fourth-and-2 play against the Texans, Reddick loses gap integrity and allows C.J. Stroud to scramble for 12 yards.
On this crucial third-and-9 play where the Jets are up by five points with two minutes left in the game, Reddick allows Jacoby Brissett to scramble toward his edge for a first down. Quinnen Williams also does a poor job here.
Bill Belichick criticized Reddick for that play, to which Reddick provided a derogatory response.
It’s problematic to see that the Jets have already struggled against scrambles with Reddick on the field, as Brissett and Stroud are not dangerous quarterbacks with their legs. Brissett and Stroud have combined for 205 rushing yards this season, gaining about one-quarter of those solely on the three scrambles with Reddick on the field. Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is a completely different challenge, as he ranks third among quarterbacks with 350 rushing yards. If the Jets’ defensive linemen continue to play recklessly on Sunday, Murray will punish them.
Every Jets defensive lineman needs to adjust their approach on Sunday. It is imperative for them to play with a contain-first mindset rather than firing into the backfield with reckless abandon. While this applies to everyone, Reddick is the player who must make the biggest adjustment. He is an explosive, pass-rush-centric defender who is also playing for sack incentives. If he does not adjust his approach, Murray will run wild toward his side of the field.
Reddick racked up eight pressures against the Texans last week, but the Jets can live with fewer pressures from Reddick in Arizona if it means he is doing his part to keep Murray in the pocket. In his career, Murray is 4-13-1 when he rushes for 15 yards or fewer, including 1-2 in 2024. He is 29-17 when he surpasses 15 rushing yards, including 4-2 this season.
Quinnen Williams
Quinnen Williams is back to peak form as a pass rusher after a slow start to the season. Since Week 5, he leads defensive tackles in pressures (23) and is second in sacks (4.0).
Most of Williams’ impact has come in the passing game, though. As a run defender, Williams is still not quite playing up to his previous standards.
In 2023, Williams tied for fourth among defensive tackles with 35 run stops, while his Pro Football Focus run defense grade of 90.4 led the position. His presence was transformative for the success of New York’s run defense; the Jets allowed 3.9 yards per rush attempt with Williams on the field compared to 4.4 with him off, a -0.5 differential.
This year, Williams is tied for 49th at his position with just 7 run stops. His PFF run defense grade is 59.6, ranked 34th out of 75 qualifiers. These numbers translate to his on-off impact; the Jets are allowing an identical 4.3 yards per rush attempt whether Williams is on the field or off.
While Williams’ pass rush explosion has been tremendous for the Jets, this is a week where they need him to focus on reclaiming his dominance as a run defender. Arizona runs its offense through 233-pound running back James Conner, one of the most dangerous between-the-tackles runners in the NFL. He is a terrible matchup for the Jets, who are notoriously poor at stopping powerful runners up the middle.
Conner is averaging 5.4 yards per carry on attempts between the tackles, ranked fifth-best among running backs with at least 40 carries in that direction. Meanwhile, the Jets have allowed opposing running backs to gain 496 rushing yards between the tackles, the sixth-most.
On Sunday, Williams needs to shift his focus from being an explosive pass rusher to being a sturdy gap-plugging run defender. With the Jets having few other quality run stoppers on the defensive line, Williams is their only hope to stop powerful runners like Conner. If Williams can set the tone by eating blocks and creating traffic, the rest of the unit can rally around him and put together a strong run-stopping performance. But if Williams gets too reckless and doesn’t muddy up the interior, the Jets don’t have the reinforcements to make up for it.
The Jets do not need multiple sacks or a boatload of pressures from Williams in Arizona. What they need is for him to hold his ground and build a wall at the line of scrimmage so Conner cannot continuously rack up positive gains against the Jets’ shoddy run defense. Even if Williams does not get many run stops himself, he can change the game in an off-the-stat-sheet fashion. At his best, Williams excels at teeing up run stops for his teammates by creating traffic.
Sauce Gardner
At his best, Sauce Gardner dominates games in silence. Four quarters go by and you forget he exists, because he almost never allows his man to get open enough to draw a target.
Gardner was doing this at the start of the 2024 season. He only saw 10 targets through his first four games, an average of 2.5 per game, even less than his 3.1 targets per game in 2023.
Recently, though, this version of Gardner has become less common. Gardner has been targeted 5+ times in three of his past five games. Before that, it only happened in five of his previous 21 games dating back to his rookie year. Teams have begun attacking Gardner at a rate we are not used to seeing.
This seems to be happening due to increases in Gardner’s recklessness and aggressiveness. There are a few signals pointing to this.
Firstly, Gardner’s penalty totals have spiked. Gardner has six penalties over his last five games. Before that, he only had 10 over his first 37 career games.
Secondly, Gardner is whiffing on a ton of tackles. This is an issue that has persisted all year, even throughout his first four games. Gardner has a missed tackle rate of 22.2% this season, nearly double his previous career average entering the season (11.6%).
The increases in penalties and missed tackles point to a more aggressive and less controlled Gardner. A few particular plays showcase this altered approach, none more so than the following rep against the Patriots. Gardner is in position to wrap up Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson for a short gain on second-and-15, but he foolishly gambles for an interception, leading to a much larger gain and an ensuing touchdown on the following play.
In Arizona, the Jets need Gardner to get back to his usual patient and controlled self. This is something Gardner needs to do in general, but it is especially important against Kyler Murray this week.
Firstly, Murray is not the type of quarterback who presents the defense with interception opportunities. Murray has a turnover-worthy throw rate of just 2.0%, seventh-lowest out of 38 qualified quarterbacks. He rarely puts the ball in harm’s way, so there is no reason for Gardner to aggressively seek interception chances. If something falls into Gardner’s lap, he should go get it, but Murray is unlikely to reward Gardner for going out of his way to gamble.
Knowing that the risk-reward for interception gambling is not worthwhile, Gardner should prioritize sitting back and keeping everything in front of him. While it is good for Arizona that Murray rarely throws picks (just three this year), the flip side of his safe mentality is that the Cardinals have lost some games due to Murray not taking enough risks.
Murray ranks 17th out of 34 qualified quarterbacks in average depth of target at 8.2 yards. That’s not terribly low, but Murray has been up-and-down in this department. He has had a few games where he aggressively pushed the ball downfield, usually leading to success, but there were also some games where he was too conservative, usually leading to failure.
Murray has had four games where his ADOT was 6.7 or lower (for perspective, a 6.7 ADOT would currently rank 36th out of 38 qualifiers; it’s Captain Checkdown stuff). In those four games, the Cardinals went 1-3 while scoring 18 points per game and averaging 155 passing yards per game. Murray only had one turnover-worthy throw (translating to one INT) across the four games, but Arizona’s offense was too stagnant for his ball security to matter.
In four games where Murray had an ADOT above 8.0, the Cardinals went 3-1 while scoring 26.5 points per game and averaging 238.5 passing yards per game. Murray tossed five turnover-worthy throws in these games (translating to two INTs), but the reward of his increased aggressiveness was worth the cost of a few more dangerous passes.
As the Jets’ CB1, Gardner is the man who will play the most significant role in influencing Murray toward a lower ADOT on Sunday. Gardner must eliminate his desire to pursue interceptions or big hits. The goal is to simply take away Murray’s downfield throwing options and make him check the ball down. If Gardner does that consistently, it should lead to success, even if the Jets do not come away with an interception.
