Should Jets sustain high blitz rate vs. Allen? Stats provide answer

We’ve gotten our first look at the New York Jets’ new defensive scheme under Aaron Glenn and Steve Wilks.

In the debut of the revamped scheme, New York took a heavy blitzing approach against Aaron Rodgers. The Jets blitzed on 35.3% of their defensive snaps, which ranked fifth-highest in Week 1.

While the results were not what New York wanted, the process was sound. Rodgers struggled against Glenn’s blitz-heavy scheme in Detroit, and those struggles continued in his 2024 season with the Jets, so it made sense to challenge him with a heavy dosage of pressure packages.

This time around, though, Rodgers excelled at finding answers to the blitz. The Jets exacerbated the situation with their poor tackling and multiple coverage busts.

Still, the Jets project to be one of the league’s heaviest blitzing teams throughout the 2025 season. Glenn and Wilks have consistently blitzed at high rates throughout their coaching careers. Week 1 suggested that we should expect this to continue now that the veteran coaches are working together.

However, the Jets may not blitz at a high rate in every game. Glenn has stated that the Jets will adapt their defensive approach based on the matchup each week.

That brings us to the question: Should the Jets throw a bevy of blitzes at Josh Allen in Week 2?

Allen’s statistical trends provide us with a clear answer.

Blitz Josh Allen?

Blitzing Allen can be dangerous due to his brilliance at extending plays with his legs. If he evades the rush against a blitz, he has a chance to get outside of the pocket with nobody there to stop him. This is especially risky because blitzes are usually paired with man coverage (particularly in the Jets’ scheme), meaning the defenders in coverage have their backs to the quarterback.

The positive aspect of blitzing Allen is that it increases his chances of making a reckless play.

Allen may not be the turnover machine he was in his younger days, but he still leads the NFL with 53 interceptions since 2021 (while also losing 14 fumbles over that span), so he is prone to making a mistake if placed under duress. If you let him stand around back there, he has matured enough to take what the defense gives him, so coaches might feel compelled to roll the dice and see if their pressure packages can bring out the reckless version of Allen.

At times, coaches may prefer to send four rushers (with a “contain” mentality) and drop seven defenders into coverage, allowing the linebackers to sit back and keep him in front of them. While it gives Allen a cleaner pocket to work with, it helps reduce his chances of making plays on the move. He is forced to move the ball as a pocket passer rather than a playmaker.

One of these two strategies has worked much better over the last couple of years.

Here are Allen’s passing metrics when blitzed and not blitzed in the past two seasons.

2024 (40 qualifiers)

• Blitzed: 0.19 EPA per dropback (9th), 17.8% DVOA (9th)
• Not blitzed: 0.31 EPA per dropback (2nd), 30.8% DVOA (3rd)

2023 (39 qualifiers)

• Blitzed: -0.06 EPA per dropback (34th), -9.0% DVOA (25th)
• Not blitzed: 0.14 EPA per dropback (2nd), 32.9% DVOA (2nd)

Allen performed significantly better when not blitzed in both 2023 and 2024. His performance against the blitz was much improved in his 2024 MVP season, but he was still far more dangerous when teams elected to play conservatively.

Despite the supposed risk of blitzing Allen, sending an extra rusher at him pays dividends. Forcing him to stand in a cleaner pocket and be a pocket passer is clearly the less favorable strategy.

Why? Well, it probably comes down to this: Allen is such a dominant athlete that he will get where he wants to go regardless of whether you assign a spy to him or, at the very least, ensure that the back-seven defenders can keep their eyes on him. For that reason, you might as well put as much pressure on him as possible to hasten his progression and increase the chances that he does something bone-headed.

Rushing four gives you a lower chance of putting pressure on Allen, yet it does not do much (if anything) to decrease the risk of him escaping the pocket, which is supposed to be the benefit. It just doesn’t quite work against this alien of a quarterback. So, it’s better to focus on pressuring him and accept that you have to live with whatever magic he pulls.

At this stage, Allen is too well-developed as a pocket passer to be left alone in a clean pocket against a four-man rush that is more focused on containing him than creating pressure. You need to apply heat and pray that his 2018 instincts kick in.

Imperative to come after Allen early

We’ve established that Allen performs much better when teams drop seven-plus defenders. This shows that the Jets would be wise to sustain a high blitz rate against Allen, carrying over their Week 1 approach against Rodgers.

But there’s one more split that New York needs to consider when game-planning for Allen: How he performs against the blitz in each half.

Allen is particularly poor against the blitz early in games. In 2024, when blitzed in the first half, Allen ranked 20th in EPA per dropback (0.04) and 31st in DVOA (-16.4%).

The raw stats are ugly. Allen ranked fourth-worst in completion percentage (53%), completing 35 of 66 passes for 432 yards (6.5 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, and one interception. Allen was sacked just three times, as he is a challenge to take down no matter the situation, but first-half blitzes were very successful at limiting his consistency as a passer.

After Allen and Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady got a chance to adjust at halftime, Allen started dominating blitzes after the break. When blitzed in the second half, Allen ranked fifth in EPA per dropback (0.32) and second in DVOA (47.4%). Allen completed 47 of 80 passes (58.8%) for 638 yards (8.0 per attempt), eight touchdowns, and no picks.

The ideal game plan for Jets

Overall, the Jets would be wise to sustain a blitz rate that at least matches their 35% mark against Rodgers last week.

They should not be afraid to go much higher, though.

This is not to say that New York should come out and blitz Allen on every play. That is unrealistic. Still, the higher their blitz rate – while staying within a realistic range – the better their chances of delivering another Allen stinker like the ones he put forth in his 2022 and 2023 trips to the Meadowlands.

It all depends on the game script. If the Jets get an early lead, they can back off as they try to force Buffalo into milking the clock. If the Jets go down, maybe they can start sending even more heat to stop the run and potentially force a game-tilting turnover. It also depends on the distances Buffalo faces on third down (you wouldn’t blitz on third-and-20).

Coming out of the gates, though, Wilks should strongly consider having a goal of pushing New York’s blitz rate into the 40% range, or even up to 50%. As aggressive as it may sound, it would not be an unprecedented approach.

In their 2024 divisional playoff game against Buffalo, the Ravens blitzed Allen on 43.5% of his dropbacks. It delivered a tremendous final result, as Baltimore held Allen to 16-of-22 passing for 127 yards on the night, along with 10 rushes for 20 yards (with two short scores near the goal line).

The blitz was a driving force in that effort, as Allen produced an atrocious -0.41 EPA per dropback when blitzed.

We know Allen struggles most against the blitz in the first half. Wilks and the Jets must capitalize on that. Their best bet is to come out of the gates bringing heavy heat against Allen. If it isn’t working, the Jets can adjust, but they have to start there. Every piece of data says they should.

If the Jets come out and play conservatively against Allen, consistently dropping seven into coverage, there is a strong chance he will show them why he is the reigning MVP.