The big coaching adjustment NY Jets must quickly make

While the New York Jets’ players underperformed against the Buffalo Bills last week, the team’s coaches were arguably even more at fault for the 30-10 defeat. On both sides of the ball, the Bills coached circles around New York’s revamped staff.

Offensively, coordinator Tanner Engstrand fell into a trap of predictability, allowing the Bills to guess correctly far too often.

Defensively, coordinator Steve Wilks leaned too heavily on Cover 1 looks, making his defense so predictable that Buffalo’s backup quarterback, Mitchell Trubisky, was able to come off the bench and immediately hit a 32-yard pass on third-and-long.

Even more crippling than the predictable play calling was the lack of specificity to the opponent. Wilks’ defense looked like it was built to defend your average Joe (Flacco) at quarterback, not Josh Allen. New York’s defensive players failed to show the principles that should have been at the forefront of their minds against the reigning MVP.

In Week 3, the Jets’ organization needs a bounce-back performance from not only its players, but also its coaches. After showing promise in Week 1 against a seasoned Steelers staff, New York’s leadership looked lost in Week 2. That’s a troubling sign, as this season is primarily about evaluating whether the Jets’ new regime is strong enough to anchor long-term sustainability for the franchise.

New York’s coaches must come to play (coach?) against Todd Bowles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3.

This especially applies to Wilks, head coach Aaron Glenn, and the defensive staff.

While the Jets’ offensive game plan was also concerning in Week 2, the results could have looked much different if Justin Fields did not miss numerous open players in key spots. Defensively, though, the Jets’ game plan was inexcusably weak, especially considering Glenn and Wilks are veteran defensive minds. Engstrand gets a slight pass for being only two games into his play calling career, although he is not off the hook.

The challenge for New York’s coaching staff is to display more malleability. Against Buffalo, both the offense and defense stuck to schemes and principles that did not make sense for the particular opponent. Worse yet, despite those strategies being stomped early in the game, the Jets never made significant adjustments.

Earlier this week, we discussed the ideal strategy for Engstrand to correct the predictable tendencies he displayed last week. Now, let’s highlight the main point of emphasis for the defensive staff as they look to craft a game plan suited for Tampa Bay.

How to plan for Baker Mayfield

Wilks and Glenn are both known as coaches who love to blitz.

Against Baker Mayfield, though, New York has to scrap that mentality.

Mayfield has performed markedly better against the blitz this season. Through two weeks, he is averaging 0.35 Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback when blitzed, ranking eighth-best out of 34 qualifiers. When not blitzed, Mayfield is averaging -0.03 EPA per dropback, placing 21st.

This is with an ample number of opportunities against the blitz. Mayfield has already logged 27 dropbacks against the blitz, the fifth-most among quarterbacks. Each of his first two opponents, Atlanta and Houston, ranks top-seven in blitz rate through two weeks.

Mayfield’s success against the blitz is a continuation of his 2024 season. He was blitzed a league-high 214 times, and he made teams pay for it, completing 133 of 180 passes (73.9%) for 1,463 yards, 16 touchdowns, and four interceptions.

Based on Mayfield’s track record, it is clear that the Jets’ best bet on Sunday is to consistently rush four and make Mayfield dissect a defense with seven players in coverage. New York can bring the occasional blitz, but for the most part, maintaining a low blitz rate would be wise.

This is the best way to exploit Mayfield’s propensity for interceptions. Mayfield is tied for second in the NFL with 26 interceptions since 2023, and a whopping 21 of those were against fewer than five pass rushers.

Another appealing reason for New York to lighten up its blitz rate is the health of Tampa Bay’s offensive line. The Buccaneers will be without three starters on Sunday: left tackle Tristan Wirfs, right guard Cody Mauch, and right tackle Luke Goedeke.

Without Wirfs and Goedeke in last week’s game, the Buccaneers allowed Mayfield to be pressured on 48.9% of his dropbacks, higher than all but three other starting quarterbacks in Week 2. That was with Mauch (PFF’s eighth-ranked right guard of the 2024 season) on the field; it was revealed after the game that he had suffered a season-ending knee injury despite playing every snap.

With three backups starting for Tampa Bay’s offensive line, New York’s defensive front has a favorable chance of generating pressure without blitzing. The Jets should test the waters early in the game and see if they can consistently get to Mayfield with four rushers.

If that approach isn’t working (a very realistic possibility with Jermaine Johnson out), the Jets can respond by increasing their blitz rate. But to start out, New York has to see if it can survive throughout the game without sending frequent blitzes at Mayfield. If the Jets must resort to blitzing Mayfield, he will become a much more dangerous quarterback – and a much less turnover-prone one.

Tampa Bay’s offensive line injuries have presented Wilks and Glenn with an easy opportunity to atone for the lack of opponent specificity in their Week 2 game plan. Going four-man-heavy against Mayfield should be an easy call.

If they neglect this strategy, and it leads to another loss in which the Jets’ defense bleeds points, it will be justified for fans to start getting a little skeptical about whether the team’s new coaching staff is truly an upgrade.