What a New York Jets turnaround for Allen Lazard.
Ten months after the Jets benched him, Lazard is (for now) the NFL’s leader in touchdown receptions (3) while posting 11 receptions for 148 yards through three games. Though “on pace” statistics at this point in the season are folly, those numbers would average out to 62 receptions for 839 yards and 17 touchdowns over a 17-game span.
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While that touchdown pace will not continue, Lazard has shown that he may be able to catch 62 balls from Aaron Rodgers this season. And his 13.5 yards per reception? That is right in line with his career average (13.3). This year, though, he’s doing it with the shortest average depth of target (ADOT) of his career.
Lazard’s game against New England showcased a forgotten skill he brings to the table: yards after catch. No one would suspect that a 6-foot-5, 227-pound, 4.55-running receiver would be able to make people miss and gobble up extra yards, but that’s exactly what Lazard did.
In his career, Lazard averages 4.6 YAC per reception. That would have ranked 32nd out of 80 qualified receivers (min. 50 targets) in 2023. For a receiver that big and that slow to rank in the 60th percentile in YAC is impressive.
This season, Lazard averages 6.4 YAC per reception, which would be the highest mark of his career. That would have ranked seventh among qualified receivers last season (91st percentile). While he is unlikely to sustain this rate, he showed that Malachi Corley and Garrett Wilson are not the only Jets players who can gain YAC.
Lazard caught three balls for 48 yards against New England, and 39 came via YAC.
When Rodgers sees off coverage on an outside receiver, he likes to throw a quick pass or screen rather than sticking with a run play. Jets fans assume it will go to Garrett Wilson, but with defenses shadowing him, Lazard is often left with quite a bit of open space.
On this play, Lazard faced off coverage with plenty of space outside the numbers away from Wilson’s man. The call was an outside zone run play, but Rodgers threw it backside to Lazard instead. On 2nd-and-5, the worst that would happen was a 3-4 yard gain to make it 3rd-and-short, which is essentially like a successful run play (gaining over 50% of the yards to go on second down).
Instead, Lazard squared up the defender and ran his feet, then stopped to freeze the defender’s feet. He got in a ferocious stiff arm to vault himself past. His momentum took him into a spin, which gave him a few extra yards. NFL Next Gen Stats credited him with 8.6 YAC on this play. First down.
The touchdown pass from Rodgers was very similar, although this time Lazard was in a tighter split and isolated. With a run blitz coming from the left, Rodgers could have simply stuck with the run play to the right. However, he knew the blitz would leave even more space for Lazard, especially with off coverage. On 1st-and-goal, it was a worthwhile gamble.
Therefore, Rodgers threw a quick screen to Lazard, trusting him to make a man miss. And that’s just what Lazard did, stopping his momentum to make the first defender almost miss and getting past his jersey tug. He then out-leveraged the second defender to the end zone and scored.
Again, you expect this from Wilson, not Lazard. But the big man has more YAC chops than people remember.
Lazard’s final reception came on 3rd-and-6 from the Jets’ 13. The Jets were leading just 7-0, making this an important conversion attempt.
Rodgers motioned Lazard inside to create the natural pick. The Patriots played man coverage without a banjo (meaning, the outside defender would take the first route to go outside and the inside defender would take the first route to go inside), forcing Jonathan Jones (No. 31) to go over the top of the route.
By then, Lazard had run away from Jones on the drag route. With Kyle Dugger (No. 23) responsible for Breece Hall out of the backfield, there was plenty of space available. Rodgers’ first read was to the left, which made him a little late to Lazard when he rolled out. Still, he got the ball to Lazard for the first down.
Rather than taking the first down and getting tackled, though, Lazard again showed strong YAC awareness. He knew the defender’s momentum was carrying him over the top, so he stopped to get the defender off balance and then threw him aside. Seeing another defender coming straight downhill, he cut upfield to his right. He extended his arm slightly to keep No. 99 off him.
With his momentum carrying him into a spin, Lazard gained five extra yards before stumbling to the ground. Had he not just tripped on No. 99’s ankle, he could have kept going.
The Jets were hoping Rodgers could rejuvenate Lazard. This is the Lazard who played in Green Bay when he was not the No. 1 receiver. He still has highly suspect hands, with two drops (and he nearly dropped the touchdown pass in this game, too). But the YAC ability is showing up again, the unexpected versatility, and the contested catch ability (3-for-3 in the early going).
Furthermore, Lazard is back to running his favorite route that is conducive for YAC — the slant. Lazard’s 16.3% slant rate is the fourth-highest among 88 qualified receivers (min. 35 routes). He has two catches on two targets for 11 yards and a score on those routes.
From 2019-22, Lazard had the highest slant rate (12.8%) among 61 qualified receivers (min. 1,200 routes). He was highly productive, catching 26 of 35 targets (74.3%) for 326 yards, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, a 131.4 targeted passer rating, and a 7% catch rate over expected. In 2023, though, just 7.8% of Lazard’s routes were slants.
Rodgers hasn’t targeted Lazard on slants quite as often as he did from 2019-22. In those seasons, Lazard saw a target on 35 of his 178 slant routes (19.7%). In the early going, he’s been targeted on two of 14 slant routes (14.3%). Still, expect Lazard’s slant target rate to increase (unlike, perhaps, his overall target rate) as defenses continue to shadow Wilson, which could give Lazard more YAC opportunities.
It’s still too early to say that Lazard can live up to his contract in Year 2. It’s only three games, and the contract was an overpay for a player of Lazard’s skill set. Still, it’s interesting that having Mike Williams as an outside contested-catch threat seems to have enhanced Lazard’s strengths rather than limiting them.
If the Jets can get WR3 production out of Lazard, together with a mix of their other weapons, their passing game can continue to thrive as it did against the Patriots.
