The NFL is a wacky sport—for many reasons.

For starters, there are only 17 games, which means one single hot streak or cold streak could be enough to sink a player or team’s entire season. Unlike the 82-game schedule of the NBA and NHL or the 162-game schedule of MLB, the sample size is too small for bodies of work to balance themselves out.

You also have an oddly shaped ball that is prone to bouncing in strange ways, leading to plenty of luck-based outcomes that can shift the perception of a player or team based on results that are largely out of their control. This matters immensely in a sport where a couple of interceptions or a couple of fumbles can change the entire narrative around a quarterback or a team—lucky bounces matter in every sport, but one out in baseball or one basket in basketball can never have the same season-long significance as the highest-leverage plays of a football game.

Because of these factors, NFL players often undergo wild swings in their production from year to year. Save for the greats who are so elite that they can maintain dominant production from year to year, most players are prone to swinging between a wide range of outcomes each season.

The Jets have plenty of players who fall in this category.

These two, in particular, are due to swing upward in the 2026 season after trending the opposite direction in 2025.

QB Geno Smith

Geno Smith’s last four seasons as a starting quarterback have produced a vast spectrum of results.

In 2022, Smith led the NFL with a 69.8% completion rate, ranked fourth with 30 touchdown passes, and helped the Seahawks reach the playoffs.

This past season, Smith led the NFL with 17 interceptions and went 2-13 as a starter.

Smith’s lone campaign with the Raiders, though, appears to be an outlier until proven otherwise. In three out of the past four seasons, Smith posted a winning record, a passer rating above 92.0, and more than 3,600 passing yards.

A positive regression is due for Smith, and a big reason why is that many of his interceptions in 2025 were unlucky. An analysis from Pro Football Focus revealed that Smith threw 4.7 more interceptions than he should have been expected to throw based on his number of turnover-worthy throws. That was the largest margin in the NFL.

If he has league-average luck, Smith should throw around five fewer interceptions this year, assuming he throws a similar volume of passes. But he could also have a lucky season, which might cause his interception total to dip by six or more, potentially dropping him from 17 to somewhere around 10.

Considering how many NFL games are decided by the turnover margin, an interception drop of five or more could add plenty of wins to Smith’s name.

EDGE Will McDonald

Statistically, Will McDonald underwent a large drop-off in many categories after a breakout 2024 season.

  • 2024 (17 games, 462 pass-rush snaps): 10.5 sacks, 24 QB hits, 61 total pressures, 3 pass deflections, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery
  • 2025 (15 games, 385 pass-rush snaps): 8.0 sacks, 19 QB hits, 42 total pressures, 0 pass deflections, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries

Add in the fact that half of McDonald’s sacks came in one game against a bad Browns offensive line, and it was a truly disappointing season from a statistical standpoint.

But there is reason to believe that McDonald is due to tick back up to his 2024 numbers, or perhaps surpass them.

On tape, McDonald still looked excellent as a pass rusher in 2025. His statistical decline was largely due to outside factors that prevented him from translating his wins into production.

McDonald was playing in front of an awful secondary—one so bad that it failed to record an interception. The zero-pick stat is well-known, but what’s more important, as it pertains to McDonald, is how quickly the Jets’ defensive backs allowed opponents to get the ball out. According to FTN Fantasy, the Jets’ opponents averaged 2.59 seconds to throw, tied for the fastest mark in the league.

When your DBs are getting beat that quickly, it’s hard to get sacks, hits, or even just pressures, because the ball is coming out so fast that even a player as explosive as McDonald does not have time to reach the pocket.

Back in 2024, when the Jets still had the duo of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed manning the outside, New York’s opponents averaged 2.74 seconds to throw, ranking fourth-longest in the league. Naturally, it bought more time for McDonald to get home.

McDonald’s performance didn’t change much in 2025; his surroundings did. With a strengthened secondary in 2026, featuring upgrades like Minkah Fitzpatrick, D’Angelo Ponds, and a hopeful second-year leap from Azareye’h Thomas, McDonald should receive the time to work that he did not in 2025.