Quinnen Williams is putting up big numbers, but they should be bigger
New York Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams is quietly enjoying a great season amidst the team’s horrific defensive struggles.
Williams ranks fifth among IDL (interior defensive linemen) in sacks (5.0) and is tied for fourth in quarterback hits (11). His run-stop rate of 9.6% (14 run stops over 148 snaps against the run) ranks at the 81st percentile among qualified IDL.
The only IDL in the league who are ranked in the top-20% for run-stop rate as well as in the top-five for quarterback hits are Williams, DeForest Buckner, and Jeffery Simmons.
As strong as Williams’ numbers are, they should be much more impressive.
The reason is simple: the Jets are not giving Williams nearly enough playing time.
Williams ranks only 31st at his position with 378 defensive snaps played. Yet, he owns top-5 rankings in sacks and quarterback hits while ranking 21st with 14 run stops.
It is remarkable how many plays Williams has made relative to his snap count. Few defensive tackles are producing at Williams’ level on a per-snap basis.
Williams has contributed to six sacks (4 solo sacks, 2 half-sacks) over his 378 snaps. That is an average of one sack every 63.0 defensive snaps – the best rate among 97 qualified IDL (200+ defensive snaps).
- Quinnen Williams: 63.0 (6 on 378)
- Jeffery Simmons: 64.2 (9 on 578)
- Jonathan Allen: 71.0 (6 on 426)
- Leonard Williams: 72.9 (7 on 510)
- Akiem Hicks: 78.3 (3 on 235)
- Kingsley Keke: 81 .0 (3 on 243)
- B.J. Hill: 81.7 (3 on 245)
- Aaron Donald: 82.3 (7 on 576)
- DeForest Buckner: 87.5 (6 on 525)
- Derrick Nnadi: 89.0 (3 on 267)
Tennessee’s Jeffery Simmons leads IDL with nine sacks, three more than Williams, but he has played 200 more snaps than Williams. On a per-snap basis, Williams is producing sacks at a slightly better rate than the Titans’ star.
If Williams were playing as much as guys like Simmons, he could be putting up otherworldly statistics this year. Instead, he is playing a rotational diet of snaps, holding him back from racking up All-Pro numbers.
Williams has played no more than 68% of the Jets’ defensive snaps in a game this season. On average, he has played 61% of the defensive snaps. He went as low as 52% in a game.
That is nowhere near the level of usage that players of Williams’ caliber typically get. Here is a look at how often some of the league’s other star 3-techniques have played this year:
- Quinnen Williams (NYJ): 61% average – 68% maximum, 52% minimum
- DeForest Buckner (IND): 81% average – 88% maximum, 70% minimum
- Leonard Williams (NYG): 81% average – 91% maximum, 72% minimum
- Jeffery Simmons (TEN): 84% average – 95% maximum, 65% minimum
- Jonathan Allen (WAS): 71% average – 87% maximum, 58% minimum
- Aaron Donald (LAR): 85% average – 96% maximum, 60% minimum
- Grady Jarrett (ATL): 73% average – 79% maximum, 58% minimum
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Most players in Williams’ talent tier average a higher snap portion than Williams’ maximum snap portion this season.
The Jets use a rotation-heavy approach for their defensive line. They consistently keep guys moving on and off the field in an effort to prevent fatigue.
That idea made a lot of sense when the Jets were set to enter the season with a lineup of Williams, John Franklin-Myers, Sheldon Rankins, Foley Fatukasi, Carl Lawson, Vinny Curry, and Bryce Huff.
However, with Lawson and Curry ruled out for the season prior to Week 1, that plan should have been scrapped long ago. Huff has also been out for the Jets’ most recent three games and Williams’ playing time still has not changed at all.
Now that the defensive line depth chart is depleted, Williams is yielding far too many snaps to guys like Nathan Shepherd, and it is crushing the defense.
With a 32.6 overall grade this season, Shepherd is the NFL’s lowest-graded IDL at Pro Football Focus among the position’s 97 players with at least 200 snaps.
Despite his poor performance, Shepherd has registered an average snap portion of 35% across all nine of the Jets’ games this season. He has played at least 27% of the snaps in every game and as many as 45%.
What is going on here?
Again, if the Jets were fully healthy, it would make sense to be rotation-heavy and keep Williams fresh. The Jets would be able to put viable talent on the field while Williams catches a breath.
But without enough talent to adequately replace Williams when he subs out, the Jets are paying the price for sticking with their rotational approach. They get caught much too often with abysmal units like this one.
Another thing to criticize/reflect on this defense:
the heavy DL rotation approach.On Buffalo's first touchdown, the Jets four-man rush consisted of Ronald Blair, Nathan Shepherd, Sheldon Rankins and Hamilcar Rashed Jr.
All backups.
JA bought extra time and the Bills scored. pic.twitter.com/NMqxWw8ZtR
— Vitor (@VitorPaivaM) November 15, 2021
Every team has to rotate its defensive linemen to some degree. No defense has all of its stars on the field for the entire game. And now that the Jets are without three of their intended key pieces up front, they have no choice but to rely on guys like Shepherd, Hamilcar Rashed, and Ronald Blair at times.
That does not mean they need to be caught without their best player on the field a whopping 40% of the time.
New York’s roster has been decimated by injuries, and it’s time for Jeff Ulbrich, Robert Saleh, and the defensive staff to adjust accordingly. Keeping Williams’ snap count down to maximize his effectiveness was a great idea when he could be subbed out for guys like Curry, Franklin-Myers, Huff, and Rankins. The Jets can no longer afford to have him watch nearly half of the game now that he is being replaced by bottom-of-the-barrel players.
Williams is making the most of his playing time, but he can hardly be a game-changing difference-maker with his current snap count. It is long overdue for the Jets to give their brightest young defensive talent the star-caliber workload that he deserves.
If he can extrapolate his current efficiency over a large workload, Williams could put up some record-setting numbers that would go a long way toward helping the Jets right the ship.
Ulbrich and Saleh must give Quinnen a chance to show whether he can be the driving force behind pulling his team out of its darkest defensive stretch in history. Give him the keys and let him show you the full extent of his potential.
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So Quinnen played 68% against the texans. Thats his season high prior to this article. So i guess thats ok but this 68% should probably be his low instead of 61%. Hopefully he can get maybe 75% vs the eagles but id worry that since the DL produced vs texans, they may see no need to change that. We’ll see.
They came in here with one goal in mind, install the “system”, and that’s it. It wasn’t to win games, it’s not to use the talent they have, it’s to set up the “system.” Saleh said it repeatedly, they are going to do the same thing over and over and over until they get it perfect. That’s nice when the team has talented players, and players that fit the system. This team has little talent on the defensive side of the ball right now, yes, I understand they have some key injuries but that won’t stop them from installing the system. The system says, rotate DL even if they are monsters. Well, they are down some monsters and it’s showing, and this staff better wake up because someone with some authority is going to notice Shaq Lawson is playing more than Q, and Elijah Moore isn’t getting enough snaps. When that happens they’ll be told they can take their system and walk. I’m so disappointed in Saleh after being so high on him. He’s got to get back to being “him” bring some energy, get creative and stop posing as HC for the cameras and podium.
Before the season started i really loved the dl depth, the fact that there was talent throughout and they wouldnt lose too much if they heavily rotated. Then Carl in GB happened, then Vinny, then etc.. Those injuries happen and that forces you to adjust expectations and adjust your plan for rotations. Im very hopeful they do adjust accordingly going forward. Otherwise, it also makes me question Saleh’s mantra of getting his players big paydays. How can one get a giant contract when you don’t get the opportunity to produce. I dont know how a locker room would remain in tact if the current situation persists.
It wouldn’t surprise me if there’s an injury or 2 that he’s playing through. That’s way more probable than them just wanting to get Shep some reps.
So your idea is to leave Williams so he get tired and winds up being less effective than he is? Rotation is what is necessary in today’s NFL defenses. How the rotation is set up might need to be tweaked a bit due to injuries but overly extending Williams time on the line will lead to diminishing returns.
Shaq Lawson plays more than him right now. That’s a problem. I’m not saying to stop rotating, or to play him 100% of the snaps, or even play him 90% – just to increase his count by 10-15% so he is in the range of other guys around the league of the same talent level. 60% is way too low for a player of his caliber when the guys rotating in for him are bad. Would have been an OK number if they were at full strength but they’re not. Have to adjust
But look at the snap % numbers he listed for all the other top IDL. Can Q have the impact of a buckner? Well, we wont know since he’s gotten about 150 snaps on the bench while buckner was playing. I understand rotating and keeping guys fresh but when its a star player on a team thats getting historically hammerslapped, he needs to be on the field more. Sure, 100% snaps may wear him out and render him much less effective. But he’s only getting 60%. Lets split the difference next game and see how it goes for 75%. If it goes well, like it should, then next game 80%-85%. Again, see how it goes instead of being super rigid with your scheme thats not working. Adjust.
Hey Michael, do you think the reason they’re paying such close attention to snaps is the new length of schedule?
I don’t think so, just because other teams haven’t changed their snap distribution at all. I just think that since the injuries they haven’t been willing to change what their original plan was when they put together that stacked DL.