The New York Jets should resist the temptation to pay market price for these players
By now, the narrative surrounding the New York Jets is obvious: they need two new tackles and a wide receiver. They have other needs, but these are the absolute musts for the offseason.
The temptation is always there to call for signing the top free agents or trade candidates. Joe Douglas has certainly dipped into the well, signing George Fant, Connor McGovern, Laken Tomlinson, C.J. Uzomah, D.J. Reed, Allen Lazard, and Dalvin Cook, among others, to deals that were likely above market value.
This offseason, there are players available that are worth spending money on. The ones listed below, though, are not among them. The Jets should avoid these players like the plague.
Offensive tackle
Price
- Jonah Williams, CIN
- Donovan Smith, KC
Former first-round picks have nine lives. That’s why there’s even a discussion about whether to re-sign Mekhi Becton. It’s painful for executives to let go of their sunk costs, and the name recognition sticks for years.
Orlando Brown Jr. ousted Jonah Williams from the left tackle position in Cincinnati, and Williams had to compete for the right tackle spot. Cincinnati brought in a top-of-the-market tackle because Williams underachieved over the last three seasons, posting pressure rates of 6.3%, 6%, and 5.6%. Although his mark in 2023 was better than the tackle average (6.4%), he’s a minus run-blocker (54.0 Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade) and an average-at-best pass-blocker.
Still, Williams is one of the top tackles in a thin market and therefore set to make top dollar. The top tackles on last year’s market received huge contracts: Mike McGlinchey (5 years, $87.5 million), Brown Jr. (4 years, $64 million), and Jawaan Taylor (4 years, $80 million) all got the bag. None of those contracts worked out well in their first years, and all three of those players were highly regarded.
Why pay a mediocre tackle like a top-tier one?
Meanwhile, Donovan Smith has a reputation as a solid pass-blocker from his years in Tampa Bay. However, he’s been miserable in Kansas City, posting an 8.0% pressure rate. He’s not worth much more than Becton (maybe less, given his age), but he’s likely to be paid as a starting tackle.
Injury history
- Trent Brown, NE
- David Bakhtiari, GB
Trent Brown of the Patriots has one of the best resumés of the available tackles. He garnered the fifth-best grade of all available offensive linemen in Michael Nania’s grading system. However, his injury history is extensive, as he played 11 games or fewer in four of the past five seasons. He could also be an albatross in the Jets’ zone-blocking system considering his 370-pound frame and lack of athleticism. This can go into the overpay category as well since Brown will likely earn more than his value given the injuries.
Meanwhile, David Bakhtiari will be endlessly linked to the Jets this offseason, just as Davante Adams will be. Bakhtiari would incur a $19 million dead cap charge for the Packers if they traded him, but the trade would also save them $20.9 million — which would be the new team’s cap charge.
Leaving aside the high cap number, though, Bakhtiari played in one game in 2023. He played one game in 2021. He played 12 and 11, respectively, in 2020 and 2022. That means he played 25 games over the past four seasons, and he’s entering his age-33 season.
Hard pass.
Wide receiver
- Tee Higgins, CIN
- Tyler Boyd, CIN
- Calvin Ridley, JAX
- Gabe Davis, BUF
Seeing Tee Higgins’ name on this list might cause some Jets fans to do backflips in outrage. However, hear me out for a minute: all four of these players are likely to receive contracts worth one slot ahead of their value.
Higgins’ contract will reflect No. 1 receiver status. That’s been his reputation since the Bengals drafted Ja’Marr Chase: a 1A playing with another elite receiver. Boyd will most likely be paid as a No. 2 since that’s also his reputation in Cincinnati. Ditto for Davis and Ridley, both coming off disappointing years but still viewed as No. 2 options around the league.
The Jets already paid Lazard No. 2 money last season. He profiled as a mid-tier No. 3, though his play in 2023 did not even live up to that. They must properly evaluate wide receivers, especially since they need a No. 2, not a No. 3.
Higgins is the only one of the four who is truly a No. 2 receiver, but is he worth paying as a No. 1? He has a bit of Kenny Golladay in him — a contested-catch maestro coming off an injury-riddled season and slated to receive a big contract anyway. The disappointment was not just due to the Bengals’ quarterback situation, as Higgins struggled even when he did play with Joe Burrow. I’m not saying that his contract would work out as Golladay’s did, but the possibility is there.
Boyd is a slot receiver through and through. While there are dominant slot receivers in the league, he is not one of them. He also struggled independently of Burrow this season, catching 67 balls for 667 yards and 2 touchdowns. His career average depth of target is 8.8. Is that really a No. 2 complement to Garrett Wilson, whom the Jets like to use in the slot at times?
Ridley has the potential to be a No. 2, but it’s hard to bet on it. His final numbers in Jacksonville may seem strong — 76 receptions for 1,016 yards and 8 touchdowns — but he had nine games with 40 or fewer receiving yards. He also disappeared when Zay Jones and/or Christian Kirk were out of the lineup. He is now three years from his last elite season. Perhaps it’s worth paying Ridley on a one-year deal, but not if it means neglecting the true No. 2 spot.
Gabe Davis became an ancillary target in Buffalo as the season went on. Behind Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid became the No. 2 target, and even James Cook and Khalil Shakir took more of a prominent role in the offense. The Bills’ offense took off once they started using their other weapons.
If Davis couldn’t find consistency behind one of the league’s top receivers, will he really take any pressure off Wilson? His deep ability gives him some value, but in many ways, he’s just a better version of Lazard — a higher-end No. 3 receiver at best. He will probably get paid in the Lazard range, though.
Boyd, Ridley, and Davis would be nice signings as No. 3 receivers, but they’ll likely command No. 2 contracts. As the Jets are stuck with Lazard, they should say no to all three of these players.
