Davante Adams and Brandon Aiyuk could both be New York Jets trade targets
On paper, the New York Jets have one of the best rosters in football.
What could put them over the top? Another big wide receiver addition. That’s why the rumors surrounding a Davante Adams trade are heating up.
And that’s also why Jets fans’ ears perked up when Brandon Aiyuk requested a trade from the 49ers.
The 49ers claim they’re not trading Aiyuk, while the Raiders insisted earlier in the offseason that Adams will stay put, as did Adams’ agents. However, contract stalemates or unwieldy contracts do occasionally lead to trades, such as the Chiefs’ trade of Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, the Packers’ unloading of Adams to the Raiders, and the Bills sending Stefon Diggs to the Texans.
If the Jets had their pick, though, which player makes more sense for them?
Production
Aiyuk and Adams had different roles in their offenses in 2023, resulting in an interesting difference in stat line. Adams’ average depth of target was 11.1, ranking 48th out of 80 receivers with at least 50 targets. Aiyuk, meanwhile, had a 14.3 ADOT, ranking second.
Still, Aiyuk was far more efficient and productive on his targets. Despite his role as a deep threat, he caught an incredible 74.3% of his targets, ranked seventh. Just one other receiver in the top 20 in catch rate had an ADOT of over 12, and seven in the top 10 had an ADOT below 10. Aiyuk’s catch rate on just 101 targets led to a 75/1,342/7 stat line, including a second-ranked 17.9 yards per reception and an unbelievable 13.3 yards per target. Despite ranking 31st in targets, Aiyuk ranked seventh in receiving yards.
Adams was somewhat the opposite of Aiyuk — his production came due to volume rather than efficiency. He ranked second in the NFL in targets with 171, and his 103 receptions tied for ninth. Still, Adams’ 60.2% catch rate ranked 56th in the NFL, which is particularly poor for a player with a below-average ADOT. Overall, his stat line was 103/1,144/8, with 11.1 yards per reception and just 6.7 yards per target.
Context
In comparing the two players, though, it’s critical to consider the context in which they played.
Aiyuk was part of a prolific passing offense that ranked third in completion percentage (68.4%), first in yards per attempt (9.3), sixth in passing yards (4,577), second in passing touchdowns (33), first in passer rating (110.2), first in first down percentage (42.2%), and first in pass plays of 20+ yards (75).
They coupled that with a rushing attack that also ranked third in rushing yards (2,389), fourth in yards per carry (4.8), and tied for first in touchdowns (27).
Adams, meanwhile, dealt with a polar opposite situation. The Raiders ranked 25th in completion percentage (62.5%), 25th in yards per attempt (6.5), 23rd in passing yards (3,666), 22nd in passing touchdowns (20), 27th in interceptions (18), 28th in passer rating (80.1), and 30th in pass plays of 20+ yards (35).
The Raiders were equally poor on the ground, ranking 30th in rushing yards (1,542) and 28th in yards per carry (3.7).
Aiyuk played with an abundance of offensive talent, including the NFL’s best running back in Christian McCaffrey, a top-three tight end in George Kittle, and one of the biggest YAC threats in the league in Deebo Samuel. Adams, meanwhile, had Jakobi Meyers, a nice player but hardly a superstar, and no one else to buffer him.
With Josh Jacobs’ down season, it was up to Adams to carry the offense. Unlike in Green Bay, when he had a superstar quarterback carrying the offense with him, doing so with subpar quarterback play was beyond even his capabilities.
This is not just an excuse for Adams. Jets fans know firsthand how putrid quarterback play can depress a receiver’s statistics. Garrett Wilson’s 2023 stat line is very similar to Adams’ in many ways: 95/1,042/3 despite ranking fourth in the league in targets (163). Wilson averaged just 6.4 yards per target. His quarterback-independent performance was still elite, though.
Film
Aiyuk is a silky-smooth route runner who has a knack for creating separation on his own. He is not merely a product of the 49ers’ elite offense but is, in some ways, its engine. As I explained in an article earlier in the offseason, he is a complete player.
Here are some examples I gave of Aiyuk’s elite route-running.
Aiyuk also roasted press coverage. He caught 14 of 22 press targets (63.6%) for 299 yards (21.4 yards per reception), three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a targeted passer rating of 146.8. He posted a 9.2% catch rate over expected and ranked second among all receivers with 1.15 EPA per press target.
Meanwhile, Jet X’s Andrew Fialkow demonstrated that Adams still has plenty of juice left in the tank. Here’s a play of Adams beating L’Jarius Sneed, who did not allow more than 40 yards to any other receiver besides Adams (4 catches for 66 yards) all season.
Here’s Adams beating triple coverage for a touchdown.
Career trajectory
The more concerning question regarding Adams is his age. He’s entering his age-32 season and fell off significantly from his performance over the previous five seasons. As much as context matters, receivers can fall off quite significantly at this stage in their careers.
Aiyuk, meanwhile, is in the prime of his career and could potentially still be on the rise. Playing in the 49ers’ stacked offense may have capped the ceiling of his production with so many mouths to feed. He has the potential to become one of the most prolific receivers in the league with a higher target volume.
Trade compensation
On the surface, trading for a player entering his age-26 season seems wiser than adding one in his age-32 year. However, that also means the compensation will be vastly different.
As I explained, Adams will likely fetch similar compensation to Stefon Diggs, who brought back a 2025 second-rounder, a 2024 sixth-rounder, and a 2025 fifth-rounder. If the trade happens midseason rather than before it, the compensation will likely be reduced even further.
Aiyuk, meanwhile, will bring back a tremendous haul for the 49ers. It’s hard to say it’ll be Tyreek Hill-level or even Adams-level from his trade to the Raiders, but it won’t be too far off. Here is the trade compensation for Hill, Adams, and Stefon Diggs when he went from Minnesota to Buffalo.
- Hill (age 28): 2022 (that season) first-rounder (No. 29), second-rounder (No. 50), and fourth-rounder; 2023 fourth-rounder and sixth-rounder
- Adams (age 29): 2022 (that season) first-rounder (No. 22) and second-rounder (No. 53)
- Diggs (age 26): 2020 (that season) first-rounder (No. 22), fifth-rounder, and sixth-rounder; 2021 fourth-rounder (2020 seventh-rounder sent back to Buffalo)
All three players received extensions after the trades, which means the compensation will not diminish due to Aiyuk’s required extension after a trade. Aiyuk will almost certainly bring back a first-rounder plus multiple mid-round picks.
Diggs’ trade from Minnesota is probably a good comparison considering their ages, although Diggs had not been as productive in the prior season (63/1,132/6) as Aiyuk was in 2023.
The Jets are all-in on 2024, which means they may be willing to mortgage future picks to put the best possible team on the field. Still, to what extent will they close their future window? Adams’ compensation is a lot more palatable than Aiyuk’s.
Cap ramifications
The really tricky point is the cap ramifications of either move. As I explained, the Jets could make Adams’ 2024 cap hit work pretty easily with a maximum restructure. Adams’ 2025-26 base salaries are too exorbitant for the Jets to keep him beyond that unless he agrees to a pay cut, which doesn’t seem likely. Still, the Jets could carry him for a 2024 cap hit as low as $4.956 million and still have a $12.544 million in dead cap in 2025 — not an unreasonable deal for Adams.
Meanwhile, Aiyuk will certainly seek a deal that outdoes Jaylen Waddle’s three-year, $84.75 million ($28.25 million APY) contract. Considering that Waddle posted 72/1,014/4 in 2023, Aiyuk will likely want significantly more. Justin Jefferson’s four-year, $140 million deal ($35 million APY) is unattainable, but Aiyuk likely seeks at least $30 million per year.
Let’s assume Aiyuk would get a three-year, $90 million extension or a four-year, $120 million one. The Jets would restructure his fifth-year option to give themselves cap relief from the $14.124 million it currently is. That means pushing even more money into the future.
Aiyuk’s contract isn’t comparable to Waddle’s in this way because Waddle is entering only his fourth season, while Aiyuk is entering his fifth and therefore on the fifth-year option. The Dolphins had more maneuverability to restructure Waddle’s deal and give themselves reasonable cap hits in 2024-26. The Jets could get some relief from the fifth-year option and perhaps the first year of his new deal, but in 2026, the cap hit would skyrocket.
The verdict
Theoretically, trading for Aiyuk is attainable for the Jets if they restructure some other contracts. The problem is all the players they will soon need to pay. If they trade for and extend Aiyuk, there is virtually no way they’ll be able to extend Garrett Wilson. It’s already likely the Jets will not be able to retain all of Wilson, Sauce Gardner, Breece Hall, Jermaine Johnson, and Alijah Vera-Tucker, but this would make it a certainty.
Having Aiyuk and Wilson for two to three more seasons might be worth it. But with giving up all the draft capital it will take to acquire Aiyuk? That’s mortgaging the future to an extent that even a desperate Joe Douglas might not be willing to go. Perhaps he might have done it if the Jets hadn’t signed Mike Williams, but I think he’ll be more likely to take the short-term investment in Adams than take Aiyuk.
Ultimately, for an all-in window in 2024, it makes much more sense to get Adams. The investment will be far less, Adams already has excellent chemistry with Aaron Rodgers, and the Jets can move on and figure it out from there if things don’t go as hoped for in 2024.
I think Douglas will have the same thought process. The Jets already tried to trade for Adams at the 2023 deadline, and the Raiders will likely be far more amenable to a deal than the 49ers. Between the two, I’d say it’s far more likely Adams will wear green and white in 2024 — and it’s the right move all around.
