Nobody knows for sure what Darren Mougey‘s philosophy will be as the New York Jets’ general manager.
Analytics or film? Potential or proven production? Build through the draft or the veteran market?
There are so many questions about Mougey’s philosophy that will not be answered until he logs multiple years of moves as New York’s decision-maker. However, in a recent article, we were able to make some educated guesses about Mougey’s philosophy based on comments he made with the Denver Broncos.
Speaking to the Broncos’ media team in a 2021 docuseries episode that covered Denver’s pre-draft process, Mougey said the following when speaking about scouting draft prospects:
“One of the more important parts of the evaluation process is each player’s measurables. Being height, weight, speed, hand, arm, length, all those things. Each position has a threshold. Kind of a cutoff line. If his speed is below this, he’s probably not going to make it, or we’ll definitely have to downgrade him. Or if his size or length is below this, we’re going to have downgrade him.
“With that being said, you don’t want to weight it too much. Some of these kids have three years, good body of work on film, and they’re good football players. How much do we want to ding them because they’re a tenth of a second slower than another guy? And that may be subjective, but it’s always going to take a role and play a part in it, and have its weight. How much weight that is, I think it depends by player/position.”
We dove into greater detail in the article, but to summarize, these comments suggest Mougey values an analytics-based approach, especially regarding measurable thresholds that can be used to eliminate players with a high probability of failing. However, they also suggest that Mougey is cautious about overvaluing analytics and will not eliminate great football players simply because of a few decimal points.
With this in mind, let’s run a seven-round mock draft based on Mougey’s apparent philosophy. Again, we don’t know if this is truly how Mougey views the draft process. But for the sake of this article, it is a fun exercise to see what the Jets’ 2025 draft class could look like if we build it based on the thoughts New York’s GM has offered about draft scouting in the past.
Round 1, Pick 7
These were the top prospects off the board in this simulation:
- QB Cam Ward
- QB Shedeur Sanders
- EDGE Abdul Carter
- WR Tetairoa McMillan
- CB Travis Hunter
- OT Will Campbell
The toughest thing about running this particular style of mock draft on February 5 is that we do not yet have data from the scouting combine to quantify each player’s measurables. It will be fascinating to revisit this exercise after the combine.
Nonetheless, we still have estimations on each player’s frame and athleticism based on the eye test. We can also go off other important data points, such as age, breakout age/year, positional value, and college production.
Before even getting to the combine data, one player that I think Mougey might rule out immediately is Penn State tight end Tyler Warren.
The positional value of selecting a tight end seventh overall is already quite the reach, but on top of that, Warren did not break out until his fifth year of college. While that is not a red flag that prevents him from being a good NFL player, it is something that should scare teams off from taking a tight end seventh overall.
For a tight end to be worth it at No. 7, he needs to be absolutely special (Brock Bowers-esque), and if you did not start dominating in college until your fifth year, history suggests you are less likely to be an NFL superstar. Warren will likely be at least a solid starter in the NFL, but his college trajectory deems him too risky to be chosen seventh overall ahead of players from more valuable positions.
With Warren eliminated, our other options include Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham, Georgia safety Malaki Starks, and Michigan cornerback Will Johnson.
If Mougey gives even the slightest care about analytics, Jeanty will be ruled out. Drafting a running back at No. 7 is a complete no-go for a team with 14 straight non-playoff seasons. More important positions must be prioritized.
Graham is an outstanding prospect, but if Mougey values measurable thresholds, Graham might pale in comparison to some of these other options, as his length and size are often cited as concerns on his scouting report. Meanwhile, Will Johnson is a toolsy cornerback who receives ample praise for his length and athleticism. Georgia safety Malaki Starks is also known for his athleticism, although he has a less tantalizing frame than Johnson.
It is important to remember that Mougey balanced out his comments by recognizing the faults in overvaluing measurables. He made it clear that he does not believe measurables should always outweigh on-field performance. Mougey seems like the type of evaluator who weighs both sides equally.
In that regard, Johnson checks both boxes. On top of his tools, Johnson was dominant on the field; over the last two seasons, he yielded a 36.7 passer rating on throws in his direction, allowing no touchdowns and six interceptions.
Johnson is also coming out of college as a true junior and was already an elite player in his freshman season. These are green flags regarding his chances of becoming a star-level NFL player.
Based on Mougey’s monologue in Denver, I have a hunch that Will Johnson might be his guy at No. 7. The Jets may enter the draft with a need at cornerback if they lose D.J. Reed in free agency, and Johnson boasts the combination of measurables and on-field production that should intrigue Mougey.
The Pick: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
Round 2, Pick 42
After going defense in the first round, Mougey turns to the offensive side of the ball to keep his first draft class balanced.
The offensive line has long been the Jets’ primary issue outside of the quarterback position. Perhaps it could even be labeled as the franchise’s main issue considering the quarterback woes are largely influenced by the problems up front.
New York’s offensive line is in its best place in years. Four of the five positions have quality starters aged 28 and under locked up for the 2025 season. The lone opening is at right tackle, and a prospect fitting Mougey’s apparent qualifications falls into his lap at No. 42.
Minnesota’s Aireontae Ersery boasts an intriguing blend of size, athleticism, and production. He stands at 6-foot-6 and 325 pounds, and will likely impress at the combine with his length and testing times. Additionally, he has the on-field performance to back up his athletic profile. Over the last two seasons at Minnesota, Ersery allowed just three sacks and 27 total pressures on 800 pass-blocking snaps. He also committed only six penalties across 1,532 offensive snaps.
Ersery played left tackle for the majority of his college career, but he started out at right tackle as a freshman and played a handful of snaps there over the last two seasons. The Jets will draft him with the intention of making him their starting right tackle.
Holes in Ersery’s technique may drop him to the late-first or early-second round, but the combination of measurables and production should intrigue a general manager like Mougey.
The Pick: Aireontae Ersery, OT, Minnesota
Round 3, Pick 92
Closing out the second day of the draft, Mougey continues to work toward his vision of a Jets team that boasts a collective sense of athletic and physical superiority on both sides of the ball. He drafted two lengthy, athletic players to start the draft, and will do that again here.
Continuing to replenish a defense that has seen an exodus of talent over the past two years, Mougey selects Texas A&M defensive lineman Shemar Turner. At 6-foot-4 and 290 pounds, Turner has the tweener-type frame to fill the versatile role once filled by John Franklin-Myers in the Jets’ defense. Aaron Glenn also valued this role in his Detroit defense with players like John Cominsky.
Turner is praised by evaluators for his explosive first step, fluid change of direction, and length. In the third round, these are the high-upside traits you want to bet on.
While Turner is a bit undersized for a full-time role on the interior (unless he adds another 10+ pounds, which he is big enough to realistically pull off), his athletic tools give him the upside to be a dominant interior pass rusher in passing situations. In rushing situations, the Jets can flex him outside as an imposing edge-setter. This is how Glenn used the 6-foot-5, 285-pound Cominsky in Detroit.
Missed tackles, shaky interior run defense, and a large dip to his pass-rush consistency in 2024 are the primary red flags that could drop Turner to the third round. However, he is likely to light up the combine, and scouts will hold onto the breakout year he had as a true junior in 2023, when he posted 36 total pressures and five sacks on just 254 pass-rush snaps. Scouts must figure out why Turner dropped to 21 total pressures and two sacks on 313 pass-rush snaps in 2024, but his relatively early breakout and impressive physical traits make him a tantalizing third-round pick.
The Pick: Shemar Turner, DL, Texas A&M
Round 4, Pick 108
The Jets aren’t in an ideal spot to grab their true quarterback of the future in this draft, but Mougey may still want to begin putting his fingerprints on the position in his first season.
While Jordan Travis is already in town, Mougey did not draft him, and his health is a serious concern. Not to mention, Travis isn’t a very toolsy prospect. Short and undersized with tiny hands and “OK” arm strength, Travis may have been a prospect that Mougey would have downgraded.
In the fourth round, Mougey adds a high-upside developmental wild card to the QB room in Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 216 pounds with electric collegiate rushing production (982 rushing yards, 17 rushing TD, 42 missed tackles forced in 2024), Leonard is the ideal late-round quarterback pick. With his size and athleticism, he is a moldable ball of clay you can hand over to the coaching staff and see if they can teach him to, well, play quarterback.
After three years at Duke, Leonard transferred to Notre Dame for his senior season, leading the Fighting Irish to an 11-1 season. On top of his rushing numbers, Leonard completed 269-of-405 passes for 2,851 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. His adjusted completion percentage was 78.2%, a promising step forward in the accuracy department after he failed to reach 71% in each of the previous two seasons.
Leonard is considered an extremely raw passer in terms of his mechanics, footwork, and timing, which is why he will probably not be selected until later in the draft despite his tools and production. However, his stock seems to be rising after he generated positive buzz at the Senior Bowl, and he may help himself out if he tests well at the combine.
Some might consider this too early for the Jets to roll the dice on a wild-card quarterback, but with a new GM and no quarterback of the future on the roster, it would not be surprising if Mougey attacked the position earlier than expected. Leonard at least has tantalizing upside based on his physical tools, unlike Joe Douglas’ fourth-round quarterback pick in his first draft class, James Morgan.
The Pick: Riley Leonard, QB, Notre Dame
Remaining picks
- Round 5, Pick 145: Billy Bowman Jr., S, Oklahoma
- Round 5, Pick 158: Jackson Hawes, TE, Georgia Tech
- Round 6, Pick 186: Jalin Conyers, TE, Texas Tech
- Round 6, Pick 208: Chimere Dike, WR, Florida
The Jets’ young pipeline at safety is thin, so they address the position in the fifth round with Billy Bowman Jr., who put good coverage skills on film at Oklahoma. He allowed the fourth-fewest yards per reception (7.3) among SEC safeties in 2024 (min. 300 snaps).
Under new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, the Jets project to rely heavily on multi-tight end packages. As things stand, their roster is not built for that, with Jeremy Ruckert being the current TE1. The Jets will certainly address the position before the draft, but this depth chart needs replenishment. That would have been true regardless of who the new OC was, but hiring Engstrand emphasizes the need.
According to Pro Football Focus, Jackson Hawes (74.7, 16th) and Jalin Conyers (80.1, 6th) were both among the top 16 highest-graded run-blockers among 248 qualified FBS tight ends (min. 150 blocking snaps) in the 2024 season. Both ranked top-25 in pass-blocking grade, too. While neither offers much receiving upside, they are high-floor players who can beef up the Jets’ blocking, allowing Engstrand to confidently run 12 personnel. They can also contribute on special teams.
Mougey focused on high-upside prospects through the fourth round, but with the back-to-back tight ends on Day 3, Mougey shifts his mindset to prospects who seemingly have a higher chance of being contributors (based on quality “eye test” performance on film via tenacious blocking) even if it comes at the cost of less upside. By taking two high-floor players at the same position with skills that could translate immediately, he hopes to give his coaching staff the ammunition they need to execute their schematic vision.
Chimere Dike is an interesting wild card as a deep threat. He tied for 12th among Power 5 wide receivers with 10 deep receptions in 2024, coming on just 18 deep targets.
Final results
- Round 1, Pick 7: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
- Round 2, Pick 42: Aireontae Ersery, OT, Minnesota
- Round 3, Pick 92: Shemar Turner, DL, Texas A&M
- Round 4, Pick 108: Riley Leonard, QB, Notre Dame
- Round 5, Pick 145: Billy Bowman Jr., S, Oklahoma
- Round 5, Pick 158: Jackson Hawes, TE, Georgia Tech
- Round 6, Pick 186: Jalin Conyers, TE, Texas Tech
- Round 6, Pick 208: Chimere Dike, WR, Florida
It will be fascinating to see how Mougey’s philosophy shapes itself in the coming years. His first offseason and draft class will give us some hints, but one offseason won’t be enough to definitively state what he does and does not prefer in a player.
For now, all we have to estimate Mougey’s philosophy are the rare public comments he made during his Broncos tenure. If those comments are an accurate indicator of the philosophy he will hold as the Jets’ GM, this is an idea of how I could see his first draft class shaping out – not necessarily in terms of the exact players, but in terms of the thought process that led to those selections.
I look forward to revisiting this exercise in March after the combine data is finalized, and again in April once the bulk of free agency in the books.
