It’s a possibility that has gained steam over the past couple of weeks.
Could the New York Jets select Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty with the seventh overall pick?
It would certainly be one of the more startling picks New York could make. The Jets’ running back unit, while far from perfect, is one of the least pressing needs on the roster, on top of being a non-premium position. While Jeanty is a special prospect, would Darren Mougey pass up on greater needs at more valuable positions with his very first draft pick as a GM?
New York’s Ashton Jeanty conversation is among the most fascinating that will take place over the next few weeks. The idea of selecting Jeanty oozes with tantalizing potential, and while downsides exist, they hardly have to do with Jeanty as a player; rather, they stem from philosophical discussions regarding positional value in the modern NFL.
Thus, you get one of the most complex debates of any prospect New York could consider drafting in 2025.
Putting ourselves in the shoes of Mougey in the Jets’ war room, let’s break down the pros and cons of the Jets potentially drafting Jeanty.
Pros
1. Truly generational RB prospect
Yeah, yeah, I know that “G” word gets thrown around very loosely in today’s sports world. In fact, the way it is used isn’t even correct. Here are the two definitions of “generational” from the Oxford English Dictionary:
- relating to or characteristic of all the people born and living at about the same time, regarded collectively.
- relating to the different generations of a particular family.
The usage of “generational” to describe something or someone as “once in a generation” is a modern-day concept popularized by the internet.
But you know what? Take a hike, Oxford Dictionary. I’m calling Ashton Jeanty a “generational” running back prospect whether you like it or not.
Jeanty embodies what people picture when they use this word the way they do. He accomplished things in college that we have never seen before.
In the 2024 season, Jeanty recorded 151 missed tackles forced and 1,970 yards after contact, per Pro Football Focus – both NCAA records since PFF began tracking that data.
That sure sounds like a “once in a generation” prospect to me.
Many people in the NFL community, myself included, have grown skeptical of the idea of taking a running back in the first round (let alone the top seven). In an analytics-driven era, it isn’t viewed as a smart usage of resources.
But Jeanty is too unique to be grouped with the rest of the position. We have not seen a prospect in recent history with as much difference-making potential as Jeanty.
Compare his final-season college numbers to those of other running backs drafted in the top 10 since 2015:
- Ashton Jeanty (2024, 375 carries): 151 MTF / 1,970 yards after contact
- Bijan Robinson (2022, 257 carries): 104 MTF / 1,071 yards after contact
- Saquon Barkley (2017, 218 carries): 39 MTF / 772 yards after contact
- Leonard Fournette (2016, 129 carries): 21 MTF / 368 yards after contact
- Christian McCaffrey (2016, 252 carries): 44 MTF / 840 yards after contact
- Ezekiel Elliott (2015, 291 carries): 53 MTF / 1,041 yards after contact
- Todd Gurley (2014, 123 carries): 37 MTF / 484 yards after contact
Jeanty isn’t even in the same stratosphere as other running backs who were considered elite prospects when they came out.
The closest player was Bijan Robinson. At a much lower volume, Robinson marginally surpassed Jeanty in missed tackles forced per carry (.405 to .403), but Jeanty had a large edge in yards after contact per carry (5.3 to 4.2). Other than that, it is nowhere remotely close between Jeanty and the other five prospects, both in terms of totals and per-carry rates.
It is a fair argument to claim that Jeanty faced weaker competition than the other six prospects, who all played in top-tier conferences. However, Jeanty is so ridiculously far ahead that he would likely still have the best numbers even if he faced a tougher schedule.
Jeanty is, simply put, different.
2. Best player in the class?
Jeanty’s status as a generational (there’s that word again!) running back prospect is particularly important in this year’s draft class because it is devoid of many true “blue chips.” The top of this class is considered relatively weak; it’s the depth of the class that receives more praise.
Outside of Jeanty, the only other prospects with legitimate arguments to be among the best at their position in recent memory would be Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter and Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter. Perhaps Michigan’s Mason Graham and Penn State’s Tyler Warren have arguments, but that just about ends the conversation.
Otherwise, the top 10 will mostly consist of prospects who are great, but not great enough to stand out as particularly special in comparison to other prospects who have gone top-10 in recent years.
Jeanty is the exception. Perhaps even when you throw in Carter and Hunter, who have question marks of their own, Jeanty may be the only prospect in this draft who is a clear-cut megastar at his position.
And yes, that position is running back, one of the least valuable positions in the game. But when Darren Mougey and the Jets come onto the clock at No. 7, there is a very good chance that Jeanty will be the highest-graded football player on their board. He might be their highest-graded football player before the draft even begins.
Would it be all that surprising if a rookie GM kicked off his draft career by selecting his highest-graded football player?
3. Jets have the personnel to maximize Jeanty
One of the reasons why running backs are less valuable than other positions is that they are heavily reliant on other factors to be successful.
No matter how great your running back is, he cannot do anything to help your team without blocking that is at least adequate. The Jets learned this the hard way in 2019 when they broke the bank for Le’Veon Bell despite having a porous offensive line. Their MetLife roommates learned a similar lesson as they watched Saquon Barkley immediately return to stardom once he landed in a better environment.
A great edge rusher or left tackle can dominate any football game, even if he is playing for a decrepit Cleveland Browns team (as shown by Myles Garrett and Joe Thomas). Running backs can only go as far as their supporting cast allows. Their job is to supplement, not to facilitate. The table is set for them, and then they do the best they can with what they’re given.
For this reason, star running backs make their biggest impact in the best situations. The better their situation is, the more value they can add.
Barkley and Derrick Henry displayed this in 2024. Joining two of the most RB-friendly situations in the NFL, they each hit new heights. Barkley (5.8) and Henry (5.9) each averaged career-highs in yards per carry this past season.
While the necessity of a strong supporting cast for these stars to succeed does speak to the RB position’s lack of value, it also shows how game-changing a star RB can be when placed in the right situation. Yes, Barkley and Henry needed to land in great situations to come anywhere close to these levels (they averaged 3.9 and 4.2 YPC in 2023, respectively), but it is not as if their great situations were responsible for their success. They still provided enormous value above replacement level.
In 2024, Baltimore’s non-Henry running backs averaged 4.0 yards per carry, while Philadelphia’s non-Barkley running backs averaged 3.5 yards per carry.
If running backs were entirely dependent on the system to be successful, the Ravens and Eagles would have experienced little to no drop-off between Henry and Barkley’s carries and their backups. Instead, the drop-off was enormous.
Every running back is going to get continuously stuffed if they keep running into walls behind a woeful offensive line. It’s when the offensive line is good that you start seeing the running back’s impact come into play. When given ample room to work with, you see the gap between the elite difference-makers who can create extra yardage and the Joe Schmoes who just take what they’re given and call it a day.
All of that brings us back to Jeanty and the Jets.
The Jets have the personnel to maximize a star running back like Jeanty. Their offensive line performed well in 2024 and could improve further in 2025, as it features three 26-and-under top-45 draft picks who are only due to progress.
Last season, the Jets’ run blocking got off to a bad start. From Weeks 1-5, Jets running back Breece Hall averaged only 3.1 expected yards per carry, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which was on pace to rank second-lowest among running backs. This metric uses GPS tracking data to estimate how many yards the runner is expected to gain based on the quality of the blocking.
But for the remaining 11 games, the Jets’ run blocking was excellent. From Weeks 6-17, Hall was presented with 4.7 expected yards per carry, ranking fourth-highest at the position (among 38 qualifiers with 80+ carries) over that span. Over this same span, the Jets’ offensive linemen combined for a 71.8 run-blocking grade at Pro Football Focus, which ranked fifth-best.
The Jets’ problem was that Hall had a mediocre season in which he did not add much yardage beyond what was presented to him. Over that same 11-game stretch in which Hall received elite blocking, he produced just 0.1 rush yards over expected per carry (RYOE), placing 22nd out of 38 qualifiers.
This is where the potential game-breaking impact of Jeanty comes in. If the Jets can maintain (or even improve upon) that 4.7 xYPC mark, it gives a star running back like Jeanty an incredible ceiling.
For instance, Henry and Barkley averaged 1.8 and 1.6 RYOE, respectively, in the 2024 season, by far the two best marks among qualified running backs. Yet, they were actually presented with fewer expected yards per carry than Hall, working with 4.1 (Henry) and 4.3 (Barkley).
To paint a hypothetical picture, let’s say Jeanty averages 1.5 RYOE against an xYPC of 4.7. That would allow him to average 6.2 yards per carry. That’s 1997 Barry Sanders territory.
That is an optimistic projection, but even if Jeanty finished with a less alien 1.0 RYOE, or if the Jets’ run-blocking fell down a bit to 4.2 xYPC, Jeanty would still be in position to average well over 5.0 yards per carry – plenty good enough to comfortably place within the elite ranks.
Drafting Jeanty at No. 7 would be a waste of time if the Jets did not have the offensive line to maximize him. But with Olu Fashanu, John Simpson, Joe Tippmann, and Alijah Vera-Tucker in place, the Jets are prepared to give a star RB the space he needs to produce incredible numbers. Hall had a chance to do it last season and couldn’t. The Jets can gain immense value by giving that chance to a better prospect.
Con: Running back value
The only concern is whether running backs, in general, can justify a top-10 draft pick.
Yes, Jeanty is a different level of prospect, as we discussed earlier, but he is still a running back, after all.
Teams who draft running backs this highly usually do not achieve great team success. Among the eight teams who have selected a running back top-10 since 2010, only two of those running backs reached a conference championship with their team. None of them have won a Super Bowl with their team; seven failed, whereas Bijan Robinson still has a chance.
RBs selected top-10 since 2010 (Team record with player on roster):
- Bijan Robinson, Falcons, 2023 (15-19, 0 playoff appearances)
- Saquon Barkley, Giants, 2018 (34-64, 1 playoff appearance, 1 playoff win)
- Christian McCaffrey, Panthers, 2017 (34-53, 1 playoff appearance)
- Leonard Fournette, Jaguars, 2017 (21-27, 1 playoff appearance, 2 playoff wins)
- Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, 2016 (70-44, 4 playoff appearances, 2 playoff wins)
- Todd Gurley, Rams, 2015 (44-36, 2 playoff appearances, 2 playoff wins)
- Trent Richardson, Browns, 2012 (5-13, 0 playoff appearances)
- C.J. Spiller, Bills, 2010 (31-49, 0 playoff appearances)
That’s a combined record of 254-305 (.454), with an average of 1.1 playoff appearances produced per selection.
Although some of these players had great years for their teams, the problem is the ripple effect on team building that is caused by these selections. Drafting a running back this high prevents you from getting a similarly great player at a much more valuable position.
Barkley had some wonderful moments with the Giants, but if they redid the 2018 draft, they would not hesitate to take Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson instead. Christian McCaffrey was excellent in Carolina, but in a re-draft, they likely would have benefited more by drafting an offensive lineman to help extend Cam Newton’s prime.
Bijan Robinson is one of the NFL’s best running backs. However, the Falcons already had the league’s fourth-most efficient rushing offense (based on yards per carry) in 2022, the year before he was drafted. By using a top-10 pick on Robinson, the expectation was that he would elevate their rushing offense to unstoppable levels, and that has not been close to the case.
Since drafting Robinson, the Falcons finished 17th and 12th in his first two seasons, respectively. This is with elite run-blocking; Atlanta ranked sixth and first in PFF’s team run-blocking grade. Despite his stardom, Robinson has not elevated the offense as a whole.
Meanwhile, star defensive tackle Jalen Carter was taken one selection after Robinson. As the Falcons sit here today, they have one of the weakest defensive lines in the NFL. Their 31st-ranked total of 31 sacks in 2024 was perhaps the main reason they went 8-9 and missed the playoffs in a season that had high expectations coming in.
This is the dilemma of taking a running back in the top 10. Even if they become stellar players individually, they often still do not make enough of an impact on team success to justify such a lofty investment. It’s just the reality of the position’s restrictions. Running backs can only do so much to facilitate winning.
The problem is exacerbated when you consider the types of teams that are drafting these players. If you are picking in the top 10, you likely have major deficiencies at multiple premium positions. Taking an elite running back will not solve the problems that put you in a position to land him in the first place.
This is why it is often a better option to select a running back later in the first round as a team that already has elite cornerstones at premium positions. Just within the last seven drafts, the Lions, Chiefs, and Patriots have used a first-round pick on a running back outside of the top 10 and gone on to reach a conference championship (or win a Super Bowl in Kansas City and New England’s case). These teams were well-off enough at premium positions to afford taking a running back.
The Jets have holes in the starting lineup at right tackle, defensive tackle, and wide receiver. Even if Jeanty is a superstar, would he change the team’s fortunes enough to make a bigger impact than even just a solid starter at one of those three positions?
That is the question Darren Mougey must confront as he weighs the possibility of drafting the best football player in the 2025 draft class. And I’ll admit it: As much as we all love to play armchair GM, consider me lucky that I’m not the one forced to tackle such a mind-twisting quandary.
